Saturday night’s game against the Edmonton Oilers is followed by a fairly restful stretch for the Toronto Maple Leafs or potentially an opportunity for Craig Berube to whip his team into shape, likely depending on the outcome of the game. Toronto will have two stretches of three days off in the coming week with their quarter-mark game against the Golden Knights. Not a bad situation to be in, especially when optimizing the recovery of Auston Matthews is paramount.
So, whether it is good or bad, you’ll need to get your fill of Leafs hockey tonight and it certainly would be nice to head into a mini break with some positive vibes.
The blueline is looking improved so far, the support for it isn’t
One of the hallmarks of a successful Craig Berube team is that everyone understands their defensive responsibilities. It’s easy to point to players like Ryan O’Reilly, Alex Steen, Brayden Schenn, Ivan Barbashev, Jake Neighbours, David Perron, and a good chunk of the Berube-era Blues forward group as responsible two-way players and see how that worked for the team.
The Leafs are decidedly not that group outside of their top line of Matthews, Marner, and Knies.
Players like Domi, Robertson, and Nylander stand out as incapable of defensive tasks. Others like Knies, Holmberg, and McMann are still getting their footing secured in the NHL and might be the answer in time, and others like Kampf, Dewar, and Lorentz, represent the other side of the issue, and aren’t ideal options to move the puck up ice to elevate pressure on the defence.
While the bottom six is capable of weathering the storm from their opposition’s offence, they presently struggle with being the outlet the Leafs defence needs at times, trapping themselves too low into their own zone and playing with a commitment to caution.
One of the most notable areas where forwards are letting down their defence is the space given in the neutral zone. The Domi and Tavares lines are frequently caught playing too high and creating space for odd man rushes into the Leafs end. The Holmberg and Kampf lines are frequently too conservative and have backed up into the Leafs defencemen, giving the opposition too much time with the puck.
It seems that balance needs to be struck, but admittedly also more time given. The return of Auston Matthews will certainly help, and potentially so will the return of Max Pacioretty. Being able to have an offensive element prevalent on at least three lines and being able to offset that with a bit more defensive responsibility on the second and third lines will help.
A big part of the challenge continues to be the centre position beyond Matthews and Tavares in the 1-2 spots, and Kampf likely being the best alternative in the 4th line role for this season. Both Domi and Holmberg have struggled and a solution that doesn’t involve rushing Fraser Minten needs to be considered.
It’s also worth noting that at just 18 games into the season there is plenty of hockey left to figure it out both from a personnel and system perspective.
Ryan Reaves need to sit
With Auston Matthews and Max Pacioretty out, the Leafs are probably using Ryan Reaves more than they’d like. I think some benefit of doubt can be given to Craig Berube in that regard. There are also plenty of Leafs forwards that you can make a case for sitting. Max Domi, Pontus Holmberg, Nick Robertson, and David Kampf have all made strong cases for nights off as well, and while early into his return, Connor Dewar isn’t exactly cementing himself as an everyday player either. These are all players that you can see Craig Berube wanting to send a message to and push them for greater results. In contrast, Ryan Reaves is much more of a what you see is what you get option, and a physical fourth liner without offensive or defensive upside is the reality.
Knowing what you can get from Reaves isn’t a case for using him over underwhelming performers though. Some of the underwhelming performances might even be attributed to playing with Ryan Reaves. So far only Kampf, Lorentz, and Holmberg have played significant time with Reaves (all other players have spent less than six minutes on the ice with Reaves), and while historically Kampf hasn’t been a fit with Reaves, he is the only one that is showing positive results (part of this is due to playing Reaves representing Kampf’s 4th line competition vs. his competition when used as a 3C.)
| Corsi For % | Goals For % | Expected Goals For % | ||||||
| Linemate | TOI With | w/Reaves | w/o Reaves | w/Reaves | w/o Reaves | w/Reaves | w/o Reaves | PDO |
| David Kampf | 92.52 | 50.94 | 33.33 | 50.00 | 0.00 | 50.94 | 25.91 | 0.996 |
| Steven Lorentz | 92.35 | 44.16 | 53.95 | 40.00 | 100.00 | 50.91 | 53.28 | 0.977 |
| Pontus Holmberg | 21.70 | 50.00 | 45.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 38.45 | 35.92 | 0.909 |
Reaves’ overall results are consistent with his previous years (except for his disastrous time with the Rangers) and the poor on-ice results can easily be dismissed because they are lower event and lower impact (for example his 40 GF% is based on two goals for and three against), and lacklustre differentials get overlooked because of the perceived value of having a big bodied player who finishes their checks hard. (For the record, I’m not dismissing there is some value in that.)
The thing is, Reaves and his heavy hitting aren’t really addressing two of the biggest concerns that exist in the Leafs bottom six at the moment, and that is the generation of secondary offence and the improved team defence that I discussed above. Reaves is a determent to both of these needs and finding out what the Leafs have in Alex Steeves as well as finding the right roles for Pontus Holmberg and Connor Dewar happen a lot easier if Reaves isn’t taking up one third of their line.
Even if it is just sitting Reaves for a few games to see what the Leafs have with their other bottom six players and how they might work best together, it is the right call. And when the Leafs are satisfied with their forward group they can reintroduce Reaves’ eight minutes of ice time which will probably include three memorable hits.
Malkin?
With Frank Seravalli reporting earlier this week that the Penguins are open to moving any player not named Sidney Crosby, it seemed that a lot of speculation over Erik Karlsson and Marcus Pettersson took centre stage. Understandably, and to some degree I’ll admit that I thought Marcus Pettersson could be a fit for the Leafs until it became clear that there is a ton of interest in him and he won’t come cheap.
That inspired a look up and down the Penguins roster and it quickly provided plenty of reason why their record is as bad as it is. There’s not a lot to like on that roster and not a lot to be excited about. Unless you look at the absolute top of their depth chart.
Let’s assume that Sidney Crosby is dead set on spending his entire career as a Penguin regardless of how the final years go. Fine. I certainly think you check in there. But while the much attention will be focused there, I would suggest that Evgeni Malkin might be the more likely candidate to waive their no movement clause and seek a chance to win elsewhere.
The need on Toronto’s side is obvious. An additional centre is required for the Leafs and since it’s early in the year it makes sense to dream big on a true difference maker rather than attempting to be optimistic about what the Sharks 3C can do with the right linemates at the trade deadline.
Malkin’s $6.1M cap hit is very workable and both the Leafs and Kyle Dubas have demonstrated creativity for making things fit cap wise. Of course, Kyle Dubas and the Leafs making a trade is also something of a potential barrier, so things could very well end right there.
From Malkin’s perspective, the Leafs are a competitive option that has a need for him and can give him some strong linemates to work with. His last contract already had a sour vibe to it and seemed to require Sidney Crosby’s intervention to get things done. While he clearly wanted to stay in Pittsburgh, another year of losing might have him exploring his options.
Malkin certainly wouldn’t come cheap, but the Leafs need to go big not dabble in depth in they want to make the jump from being a perennial playoff team to a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Their best results came the previous time they upgraded their centre position in season by bringing in Ryan O’Reilly, this year it wouldn’t hurt to make a call on Malkin. I’m sure that Kyle Dubas and Wes Clark wouldn’t mind recovering some of their prospects or having the ability to use Leafs draft picks again.
It’s potentially the last year of the Shanaplan. Mitch Marner’s future with the Leafs beyond this season is still unknown. If there was a time to go big it is now. For your consideration: Evgeni Malkin.
