The Buffalo Sabres had one primary need heading into the offseason: improving their blue line. Last season, the unit was not particularly great. They were leaving their goaltenders out to dry, making poor decisions, and not contributing much to the team. Outside of Rasmus Dahlin, the defense struggled. Bowen Byram was outstanding when paired with Dahlin, but without him, the expected goals for percentage (xGF%) was under 40%. In contrast, with Dahlin, it was over 50%. Owen Power struggled for most of the season but got in a groove towards the back half of the season before getting a knee injury that ultimately ended his season a few games early.
Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams knew he had to acquire some talent to help the defense. He did so by acquiring right-shot defenseman Michael Kesselring from the Utah Mammoth and acquiring another right-hand shot defenseman in Conor Timmins. Both players are expected to make an impact, especially Kesselring, who will be in the top four.
Sabres’ Blue Line Has Talent
It’s no secret that the Sabres have some talent along their blue line. There’s no shortage of offense from the group. From Dahlin, who is arguably a top-five defenseman in the league, to Power, a young emerging puck-moving defenseman, and Byram, who just signed a new two-year contract with the team, they are all valuable assets in the offensive zone.
Regarding the defensive side of the game, Dahlin is great, Power has shown progress despite his struggles, and Byram has shown flashes of great defensive play. How about Kesselring, though? He was brought in because he is a big-bodied defenseman who can shut down opponents on the rush, in transition, and his defensive IQ is off the charts.
The blue line could be comparable to some of the better teams in the league, like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, and Edmonton Oilers, just to name a few. With all of the talent on defense, they should be a team that could be talked about as a potential playoff team. Right? Not exactly.
The coaching could be improved, given that the Sabres have had the same assistant coaches since 2021. Special teams have not been great, and the team consistently finds ways to lose in remarkable ways. One notable instance is blowing a lead and losing 5-4 in regulation on home ice after taking a 4-0 lead on the Colorado Avalanche in the first period last season. The Sabres hope to eliminate those issues and start winning hockey games more consistently, given the team’s talent, particularly on the blue line. There are no excuses.
I’ve just talked about the top four, but what about the depth? Mattias Samuelsson and Timmins are going to provide solid depth to the team. Samuelsson can be a solid shutdown defenseman if he’s healthy and playing. Since signing his contract extension in 2022, he has missed around half of the team’s games due to various injuries. As for Timmins, he is an upgrade over Connor Clifton, whom they traded for in exchange for Timmins. Timmins is average offensively and above average defensively. If he and Samuelsson can produce, I have high hopes for the blue line as a whole.
Projected Defensive Pairs
Sometimes, figuring out who’s going to be playing with whom is tough. However, with the Sabres, it’s pretty simple, as there are only two new additions to the blue line. The Sabres pairs are projected to be as follows:
Dahlin – Byram
Power – Kesslering
Samuelsson – Timmins
Extras: Jacob Bryson, Zac Jones
The Sabres will be running it back with Dahlin and Byram together on the first pair this season. Last season, the pair played 626.2 minutes together and had an expected goals percentage of 53.1%. However, when Byram was away from Dahlin, he was not nearly as effective, so keeping Byram with Dahlin is the right call.
The second pair is precisely what the Sabres were hoping for entering the offseason and acquiring a reliable long-term partner for Power. Power and Kesselring together, I expect to be one of the better overall pairs in the league. Power’s offensive abilities, combined with Kesselring’s stay-at-home mentality, are a recipe for success. As for the third pair, I’m interested to see if it works out. If Samuelsson stays on the ice, it might be one that the team can rely on if needed, come the middle of the season.
The Sabres’ blue line can be one of the better units in the league; it’s just a matter of health and the new additions clicking with the returning players. There are a lot of “If’s” with this unit, though. “If” they stay healthy, “If” everything pans out, and so on. I expect big things from the defense this season. We’ll see if they meet my expectations, which is that they help the Sabres get into the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
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