The 4 Nations Face-Off is officially underway, bringing a two-week pause for all 32 NHL teams. As the break begins, the Buffalo Sabres find themselves at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 22-27-5 record, totaling 49 points. It’s been a rough season, with struggles throughout, including a brutal 13-game losing streak from Thanksgiving to Christmas.
Since snapping that losing streak, the Sabres have posted an 11-8-1 record, showing signs of improvement. However, as has often been the case, their turnaround may come too late. This break provides an opportunity for a mental reset before they push through the final stretch of games. Finishing strong is crucial—not just for pride, but to prove they can play up to their potential.
Players like Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn, in particular, need to step up as they have struggled for most of the season. Both entered the season with expectations of being reliable second-line contributors capable of producing 50-60 points. As it stands, neither is on pace to hit that mark unless they catch fire down the stretch.
With that being said, I’m looking for the Sabres to finish the season with a .600 points percentage. Here’s how they can make that happen.
Sabres’ Forwards
Scoring hasn’t been a major issue for the Sabres this season. They currently average 3.13 goals per game, ranking 11th in the league. Leading the charge are Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Jason Zucker, who have been consistent contributors. Thompson has 48 points, Tuch sits at 43, and Zucker is tied with J.J. Peterka at 41 points.
While the top players are producing, more consistency from the bottom six would be a huge boost. It would take some of the pressure off the key scorers and provide much-needed depth. However, offense hasn’t been the team’s main problem. According to Moneypuck.com, the Sabres rank fifth in the league in 5-on-5 scoring with 121 goals.
With numbers like that, you’d expect them to be in a much better position than 49 points in mid-February. Unfortunately, it’s tough to win games when you’re giving up more goals than you’re scoring. Defense and goaltending remain the biggest concerns.
Sabres’ Defensemen
The Sabres’ blue line has been far from reliable this season. Outside of Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram—who remains a trade deadline question mark—the rest of the defensive core has struggled. Owen Power has shown flashes of strong play, but defensively, he’s been a liability more often than not. Mattias Samuelsson has battled injuries, and when he has been on the ice, he hasn’t been much better defensively. Connor Clifton’s play has been inconsistent, while Henri Jokiharju simply hasn’t been effective.
Offensively, the blue line has contributed, with Dahlin leading the way at 42 points, while Byram and Power are tied at 29. Scoring from the blue line isn’t the issue—it’s the team’s overall defensive play. Too often, they leave goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen out to dry, failing to maintain structure and sound positioning in their own zone.
If the Sabres hope to finish the season strong, they need much more from their defense beyond Dahlin and Byram. When this group plays responsible, structured hockey, the team is tough to beat—but those performances have been few and far between.
Sabres’ Goaltending
Goaltending has been a weak spot for the Sabres this season. After signing a five-year contract in the offseason, Luukkonen was expected to establish himself as the team’s clear-cut number-one goaltender. While he has taken on that role, his numbers haven’t been great. With a 3.02 goals-against average (GAA) and a .895 save percentage (SV%), he’ll need to elevate his play down the stretch.
That said, Luukkonen hasn’t been the only problem. As mentioned earlier, the Sabres frequently leave him out to dry. According to Moneypuck.com, he has a minus-1.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx), which isn’t ideal but also reflects the struggles of the defense in front of him. It’s been a combination of both shaky goaltending and poor team defense.
As a whole, the Sabres allow 3.41 goals per game—ranking 28th in the league. Winning consistently while giving up nearly 3.5 goals per game is nearly impossible. If the team wants to finish strong, Luukkonen will need to step up, but so will the players in front of him. Backup James Reimer hasn’t been much of a factor outside of two solid performances, and he likely won’t see much playing time for the rest of the season.
Sabres’ Special Teams
The Sabres’ special teams have been among the worst in the league. While the units have had brief hot streaks, consistency has been nonexistent. If their special teams were even league-average, they’d likely be in the playoff hunt. Instead, the focus is already shifting toward the draft.
Power Play
The power play has been a major disappointment, ranking 27th in the NHL with a lowly 16.7% success rate. Injuries to key players like Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin haven’t helped, but that’s not a valid excuse. Even when they’re in the lineup, the team struggles with offensive zone entries. Once they gain possession, they can generate scoring chances—but getting into the zone in the first place has been the real issue.
One bright spot has been Zucker, who leads the team with nine power-play goals and 15 power-play points. Playing primarily in the bumper position or below the goal line, he’s been a solid addition to the unit. However, outside of Zucker, Thompson, and Dahlin, the rest of the power play needs to step up and start producing.
Penalty Kill
The penalty kill has been slightly better than the power play, but not by much. Sitting 19th in the league with a 78.3% success rate, it remains a weak spot. This ties back to the team’s overall defensive struggles—at times, the Sabres aggressively chase the puck carrier, leading to high-danger scoring chances against, while other times, they play with solid discipline.
One positive is their ability to disrupt zone entries. When they’re locked in, they make it difficult for opponents to set up, and Alex Tuch has been a key factor in that. Often positioned at the point, he excels at disrupting passing lanes, applying pressure, and leading the team with three shorthanded goals. The rest of the roster has combined for just one, highlighting just how important Tuch is to the penalty kill.
Finish the Season Off Strong
With 28 games left in the season, no one is expecting a miraculous 20-win surge to push the Sabres into the playoff race. What they do need, however, is some consistency. Personally, I’d like to see them finish strong with around 16-17 wins. A record of roughly 16-8-4 would be a solid way to close out the season. Am I expecting that? Not really. A more realistic outcome would be somewhere between 11 and 14 wins—but you never know.
If they were to hit that 16-8-4 mark, they’d finish with a 38-35-9 record, totaling 85 points—just one more than last season. That wouldn’t be a major step forward, but at least it would show some level of progress.
That said, the current playoff pace in the Eastern Conference is around 91 points. For the Sabres to reach that, they’d need to collect 45 out of the final 56 possible points. That would require a near-impossible record of 20-3-5 or 22-5-3. Even for an elite team, that would be an enormous challenge—let alone a Sabres squad that has struggled with consistency all season.
What do you guys want to see the Sabres improve on down the stretch, aside from just winning? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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