You’re going to hear a lot about Aleksander Barkov returning to the Florida Panthers lineup tonight against the Buffalo Sabres, and rightfully so. The star Finnish center brings elite offensive and defensive prowess to the lineup, creating matchup problems for the Sabres. The Sabres took the first game against the Panthers at home, 5-2, earlier this month, but this time around should look much different.
The Panthers are the defending Stanley Cup champions and are highly projected in the standings again this season. They are currently atop the Atlantic Division, sitting three points ahead of the Sabres with one game in hand. A win for Buffalo would put them within one game of the division lead.
Game Preview: Barkov Returns for Panthers Against Surging Sabres
Standings
Buffalo Sabres
2024-2025 Season
- Record: 4-4-1
- Points: 9
- Division Rank: 3rd
- Conference Rank: 7th
- League Rank: 16th
2024-2025 Projection (via PuckLuck)
- Record: 38-35-9
- Points: 85
- Division Rank: 5th
- Conference Rank: 10th
- League Rank: 22nd
Florida Panthers
2024-2025 Season
- Record: 6-3-1
- Points: 13
- Division Rank: 1st
- Conference Rank: 3rd
- League Rank: 6th
2024-2025 Projection (via PuckLuck)
- Record: 52-18-12
- Points: 116
- Division Rank: 1st
- Conference Rank: 1st
- League Rank: 2nd
Roster Comparison
Buffalo Sabres
- Forwards: 23rd
- Defense: 25th
- Goalies: 9th
- Powerplay: 32nd
- Penalty Kill: 26th
Florida Panthers
- Forwards: 5th
- Defense: 6th
- Goalies: 2nd
- Powerplay: 2nd
- Penalty Kill: 3rd
Forwards, Defense, & Goalies
The Sabres are starting to put things together, but the early-season position ranks remain the same. Buffalo is in the bottom third in talent up front and on the blueline, while Florida boasts one of the best top-sixes in the league. The defense is more suspect with the loss of Brandon Montour, but Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad project to be among the league lead in goal differential for defensemen.
The goaltending rooms, led by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Sergei Bobrovsky respectively, project to be a strong point for the Sabres and Panthers. Both goalies are carrying a save percentage under .900 to begin the season, but as the sample increases so should the results.
Sabres Powerplay vs. Panthers Penalty Kill
With Barkov back, the Panthers have their top penalty-kill forwards set. He, Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell, and Eetu Luostarinen form one of the best shorthanded forward groups in the league. They’re fourth in the NHL at 89.29% with only two games of Barkov to account for, so they’re already living up to the high projection.
The Sabres, meanwhile, project to be dead-last in the league in powerplay percentage. Since Jason Zucker notched their first and only powerplay tally of the season last game, Buffalo is also living up to their projection.
The odds of increasing their 1-for-26 success rate are thin in this tough matchup.
Panthers Powerplay vs. Sabres Penalty Kill
Based on the early-season success rates, the Panthers have about a 21% chance of recording a powerplay goal against the Sabres. Factor in a boost from Barkov’s return to the top unit and those odds should increase.
Florida is middle of the pack in powerplay percentage and Buffalo has climbed to the middle of the league in penalty-kill success. The Sabres have adopted an aggressive shorthanded style of play, and the Panthers like to run the powerplay from the goal line out instead of the blueline in. This could expose Buffalo and create two-on-one matchups down low if the Sabres aren’t careful, so that will be the focus tonight down a man.
Line Matchups
McLeod Line vs. Barkov Line
Barkov will center former Sabres wingers Evan Rodrigues and Sam Reinhart for the Panthers tonight. Head coach Lindy Ruff likes to matchup Ryan McLeod, Jordan Greenway, and Jason Zucker against the opponent’s top line. He did this versus Reinhart in the previous matchup, albeit with Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen.
Greenway scored in that game and the line put up a great offensive performance. The line defense was average and did not allow a goal, which is always a plus in a difficult matchup.
Panthers coach Paul Maurice likes to use Barkov’s line in a shutdown role, so watch for some quick shifts for Florida’s top line to see if they can get out there on the fly against Tage Thompson.
Thompson Line vs. Bennett Line
Speaking of Thompson, he, JJ Peterka, and Alex Tuch will likely see a lot of Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk, and Carter Verhaeghe if Ruff has his way. Thompson scored in the last matchup and won the battle against Bennett and company both offensively and defensively.
With the way he is performing, Thompson will undoubtedly be the key focus of the Panthers tonight.
Cozens Line vs. Lundell Line
Lundell is known as “Baby Barkov” for the similar traits he possesses. This might make things a little tougher for Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn this time around. Quinn played one of his best games of the season against Florida, but he was facing mostly A.J. Greer, Jesper Boqvist, and Mackie Samoskevich.
Lundell and Luostarinen will provide a much more stable defensive wall for Cozens and Quinn to try to break through.
Krebs Line vs. Giles Line
There haven’t been many fourth-line battles that the Sabres haven’t won, since Peyton Krebs, Beck Malenstyn, and Sam Lafferty have been extremely reliable defensively. Look for them to rotate into other defensive-zone matchups if necessary to counteract a potent Panthers attack.
