Following Saturday’s 2-1 loss to the St. Louis Blues, whatever remained of the Avalanche’s hopes for home-ice advantage in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs was washed away. Colorado has a 96.2% chance of finishing third in the Central Division, according to MoneyPuck.
Neither the Dallas Stars in second nor the Minnesota Wild and Blues in fourth and fifth, respectively, are likely to unseat the Avs from their spot in the standings. That third seed is all but guaranteed at this point.
For example, St. Louis has been red hot as of late, winning nine straight games to pull within six points of the Avs. Colorado has a game in hand and is guaranteed the tiebreaker if the two teams are even in points. Basically, even if the Blues win all seven of their remaining games — which would mean they’d end the year with 16 straight wins — they would have 101 points.
In that scenario, four wins out of eight for the Avs would keep St. Louis behind them.
We’re ultimately at a point where a first-round series against the Stars is looking more likely with each passing day.
Jared Bednar has done an excellent job of building chemistry among his forward lines and defense pairings. Given the roster turnover this year, it’s been impeccable work by the head coach. He’s used all sorts of combinations in recent weeks, and it has paid off with a 12-2-1 record over the past 15 games.
Nathan MacKinnon has excellent chemistry with each of the other five members of the top six. Brock Nelson has played with all four wingers, and Charlie Coyle has settled into a third-line center role. Even the fourth line, which was elevated when Parker Kelly shifted to the wing full-time, has figured out its identity.
On defense, Ryan Lindgren has fit like a glove. Whether he’s played alongside Sam Malinski, an older veteran like Erik Johnson, or even in his short stint with Josh Manson before the latter was injured, he’s looked great.
Speaking of Malinski, his new found confidence and consist play since the trade deadline has raised his stock with the coaching staff.
In goal, Mackenzie Blackwood has continued to be a consistent calming force. And his backup, Scott Wedgewood, is on an incredible run as of late — proving that he, too, can handle starting duties for weeks at a time when needed.
The new guys are settled in. The team is healthy. Everyone has been slotted accordingly.
What more can you ask for?
It’s worth questioning if the Avs should even push to their limit to win any of these games.
On one hand, going into the playoffs feeling great can be a massive confidence booster. But on the other hand, Colorado drifted into the postseason last year and embarrassed the Vezina Trophy winner and the dominant Winnipeg Jets in just five games.
In fact, the Avs were nowhere near their best in the final weeks leading up to the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs. But then the puck dropped for Game 1, and they scored five goals before the first intermission.
Last year, Bednar chose to play all of his starters through the final game of the season, which led to Jonathan Drouin’s unfortunate injury in an irrelevant Game 82. He ended up missing the entire first round.
So, is it time to limit ice time and rest players?
This particular beat writer thinks so. But it’s not as easy as it sounds.
Bednar needs to find a way to keep his guys fresh. Keep the stars healthy, let the depth pieces sit out games if they’re even remotely banged up, and let each goalie play four games down the stretch.
But he must balance that with ensuring that the chemistry and good vibes don’t fall by the wayside. In a season like this, where it’s taken months to get this team playing the right way, it’s hard to want to lose that momentum because the last eight games have ultimately become meaningless.
Bednar’s been here long enough and has the experience to find that balance. If so, the Avs could use this stretch to their advantage and start the postseason with a fresh group.
What say you?
