The Tampa Bay Lightning have some big decisions to make this offseason. They re-acquired defenseman Ryan McDonagh at the end of May, are hoping to re-sign their franchise player, Steven Stamkos, and defenseman Mikhail Sergachev will ideally count toward the salary cap for the full season in 2024-25 – aka he’s healthy.
At least one player will have to be moved to make this possible, given the team’s cap restraints, and forward Anthony Cirelli is a prime candidate for the Lightning to ship out to clear space. But before we pull the trigger on a trade, here’s a look at whether a trade is worth making.
The Case for Trading Cirelli
The Lightning just brought in a defenseman with a cap hit of $6.75 million over the next two seasons. Yes, the salary cap is going up but not enough.
How does Cirelli factor into this? His cap hit for the next six seasons is $6.25 million. It’s the fourth-largest cap hit among forwards on the team, and it’s a bit pricy for his level of production. Cirelli’s a good, impactful player. No doubt. He’s had some clutch goals and plays good defense – he receives Selke votes for a reason. However, his 20 goals and 45 points would be great if he was a defenseman. With limited cap space, the team needs more from a forward making what Cirelli does.
His role could be filled by other players on the team. Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul are good candidates. Both can play defense. Hagel has a similar cap hit to Cirelli but has only seen his production increase, while Cirelli’s has mostly stagnated. Paul puts up similar offensive numbers to Cirelli but has about half the cap hit ($3.15 million).
Could the team move other players instead of Cirelli? Forward Tanner Jeannot has his trade rumors (from ‘What to make of the trade talk involving Lightning’s Tanner Jeannot,’ Tampa Bay Times, May 29, 2024). Defenseman Erik Cernak and his $5.2 million cap hit have a good case to be moved. All true. However, removing Jeannot’s cap hit won’t be enough. Cernak also has a no-trade clause that kicked in last season. Cirelli’s doesn’t kick in for another season. Cernak could be willing to waive it, or they could trade Cirelli.
This could also be a great opportunity to re-stock draft picks. The Lightning have one of the weakest prospect pools in the NHL – despite their record of developing talent. They could flip Cirelli and improve the future outlook of the team. Every year, a well-liked player has to go. Cirelli is positioned to be the odd man out.
The Case Against Trading Cirelli
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Here’s the case to keep Cirelli in Tampa Bay. Sure, he has a big cap hit. But can he be replaced by a cheaper option? Potentially not. Even with players who could fill his role, that doesn’t guarantee they will perform as well. Sometimes, teams get a great deal. Other times, they get what they paid for.
Cirelli has finished top five in Selke votes twice. Neither Hagel nor Paul have finished higher than 27th, and they both received votes once. Hagel’s value still comes more from his offense than anything else. Paul may knock more opponents into the boards, but he doesn’t force as many takeaways, and his defensive points share (DPS) is noticeably lower than Cirelli’s (1.0 to 1.8). They have similar offensive numbers without the same level of defense. Maybe Paul would thrive in an elevated role, but no guarantees can be made.
Maybe it’s worth keeping Cirelli over Stamkos. He’s younger and can keep contributing for longer. He’s only 26. Maybe some stellar seasons are coming for him. He just hit 20 goals for the first time, which could be a sign of more to come.
I mentioned trading him for draft picks earlier. Sure, NHL teams have shown they’re willing to throw valuable picks around for depth – the Lightning might lead the way but are not alone. But maybe teams don’t want the commitment of Cirelli’s contract for a high price. The Lightning might settle for less to part with him.
The Lightning aren’t done trying to win Cups yet. It’s why they re-acquired McDonagh and one of a few reasons they want to keep Stamkos. Cirelli was a key factor in two championships, and it could be worth the cap hit to keep him around for more.
So, Trade or Don’t Trade?
There are always consequences to trading a player – good and bad (yes, good consequences are a thing). I’m not saying I want Cirelli to be traded. I don’t think the Lightning want to trade him, either. However, they probably didn’t want to trade a few long-time players that they traded away. Moving Cirelli has its benefits for their window and long-term success. Clear cap space for more players that can help win now and get more prospects into the system.
But beyond contention, there is value in ensuring Stamkos retires with the Lightning beyond anything Cirelli could bring to the team. He’s the face of the franchise. If he wears another jersey because management decided to keep other players, something went wrong.
Keep Cirelli if Stamkos decides to move on for other reasons. But don’t let keeping Cirelli be a reason Stamkos chooses to.
