State of the Cubs: First base is now on solid ground

   

After consecutive 83-79 seasons and missing out on the playoffs both times, the Cubs are beginning one of their most crucial winters in recent years. As the hot stove season kicks off in earnest, we analyze the Cubs depth chart at each position and how Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office might address the team’s needs.

Next up: First base

DEPTH CHART

  1. Michael Busch
  2. Cody Bellinger
  3. Patrick Wisdom
  4. Matt Mervis
  5. Moisés Ballesteros

ANALYSIS

If there’s one positive from the Cubs position player group, it’s the emergence of Busch as their everyday first baseman.

A year ago, the 27-year-old wasn’t on the roster and the Cubs entered the offseason with as many question marks about the position as they’ve had since trading away Anthony Rizzo at the 2021 trade deadline. Busch was acquired in January from the Dodgers and was being shifted over to play first after primarily playing second and third base in the Dodgers’ system.

After some early season struggles at the position, Busch was solid on both sides of the ball for the Cubs, clubbing 21 home runs, posting a 119 wRC+ and a 5 defensive runs saved.

“I think he’s gonna win Gold Gloves at first,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at his end-of-season press conference. “I think he was outstanding over there. Offensively, he ended up with a .775 OPS as a rookie, which is really impressive.”

Despite all his success in 2024, though, it was still Busch’s rookie campaign and players enduring sophomore slumps are not unheard of. But if that does happen, the Cubs have some depth behind him.

Bellinger will return in 2025 and, while he’ll likely primarily play right field, has been a solid defender at first base. Regardless of Busch’s performance, Bellinger will make starts there in 2025 — Busch will need days off and there may be days where Bellinger makes more sense at first than Busch because of matchups.

Beyond Bellinger the Cubs have another pair of options — if they decide to bring them back in 2025. Wisdom hit 8 home runs in 2024, the lowest output in his last four seasons. He was primarily used as a platoon option against lefty pitchers and had just 174 plate appearances. Wisdom had a whopping 66% fly ball rate and his hard-hit percentage was still on par with his career average (48.5% in 2024, 49.1% career).

But Wisdom is a second-year arbitration-eligible player and is projected to earn $3 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, in 2025. It’s not a steep price, but the Cubs still could opt to go in a different direction.

Mervis appeared in just 9 major-league games in 2024 for the Cubs, going 3-for-26 with a double. An injury limited him to just 90 games across Triple-A and the majors, and he posted a .235/.329/.434 slash line (.762 OPS) and a 97 wRC+ with Iowa.

The Cubs have a slight 40-man crunch to face next week — they’ll have to add prospects to their 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft by Nov. 19 and Nov. 22 is the tender deadline. So, players like Wisdom and Mervis could be moved off the roster by then.

Ballesteros’ offensive prowess will mean he’ll likely impact the Cubs in some capacity in 2025. His defensive question marks will mean it’s a bit of a mystery in what position that will come in.

The 21-year-old is primarily a catcher, but there’s more of an unknown with his skills behind the plate than there is with his bat. Ballesteros could serve as the Cubs’ third catcher and a primary DH whenever he comes up, but he does have some experience at first base — he made 8 starts there in 2024 in the minors and could fill in there in a pinch if needed.

WHAT’S NEXT?

There’s no question the Cubs first baseman of the present and future is Busch. How he can follow up his breakout campaign of 2024 will be one of the storylines to follow. But the Cubs made a splash in the trade market last offseason, and it netted them — at least early on — good results.

And their roster depth allows them to move another capable player in Bellinger to the position if the need arises.

Beyond that, there are a few intriguing options in the minor leagues for the position. Jonathon Long, the Cubs’ 9th-round pick in 2023, has been having a strong Arizona Fall League and really had a breakout campaign in 2024. The Long Beach State product had 17 home runs, an .851 OPS and a 149 wRC+ in 114 games across High-A and Double-A.

Chase Strumpf, the Cubs 2019 2nd-round pick had 12 home runs and a 99 wRC+ in 85 games at Triple-A. He’s Rule 5 eligible again this offseason. The Cubs used their 2nd-round pick this year on Cole Mathis, a first baseman from the College of Charleston. He didn’t play professionally after being drafted, undergoing Tommy John surgery in August.

BOTTOM LINE

The Cubs have had a revolving door at first base since they traded away Rizzo in 2021. While they’ve struggled to find a solution since their cornerstone, World Series-winning first baseman left, they might have finally found their answer in Busch.

State of the Cubs series
Catcher
First base
Second base: Nov. 15
Third base: Nov. 18
Shortstop: Nov. 19
Left field: Nov. 20
Center field: Nov. 21
Right field: Nov. 22
DH: Nov. 25
Starting rotation: Nov. 26
Bullpen: Nov. 27