Having consistent even-strength offense is one of the most vital components of a dominant team. Seven out of the last ten Stanley Cup champions finished top ten in goals for per 60 (GF/60) at 5-on-5 during the regular season (via Evolving Hockey). The newest star of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Jake Guentzel, is a perennial 5-on-5 goal scorer and the best available on the market this summer. The 29-year-old will be critical in mitigating the Lightning’s 5-on-5 offensive struggles last season.
Lightning Lost a Step Offensively
During their Stanley Cup runs a few seasons ago, the Lightning were the best pure offensive team in the league at 5-on-5. When the club won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2018-19, they ranked first in goals for per 60 (GF/60) at 5-on-5. The Lightning repeated this elite scoring pace the following season in 2019-20 and captured the Stanley Cup.
However, the team dynamic changed drastically last season. The Lightning’s 5-on-5 offense dipped to the league average, and the team placed 16th in goals for per 60 (GF/60). Organizations nowhere near a playoff spot, the Buffalo Sabres and Columbus Blue Jackets finished ahead of the Lightning in this offensive metric. Tampa Bay lost their scoring touch at 5-on-5, but with the addition of Guentzel, expect their rates to improve drastically next season.
Jake Guentzel Solves Major Weakness for Lightning
Over the past five seasons, Guentzel ranks 20th in 5-on-5 points and tied for 16th in 5-on-5 goals. Furthermore, he is an elite play driver, controlling 54.86% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%) at 5-on-5. The 29-year-old can mold his game to any style needed to win and succeed in the NHL. He can create off the rush, work the cycle game, find the back of the net, and thread the perfect pass. Guentzel can score in any fashion. He can crash the net to cash in on rebounds or use his silky hands for tip-ins and deflections. He isn’t afraid to snipe from the circle or blast home a one-timer.
In short, Guentzel is a Swiss army knife offensively and will elevate the Lightning’s 5-on-5 offense to the next level. He has also proven he can elevate stars through Natural Stat Trick’s line tool. Last season, Sebastian Aho posted an impressive 3.12 on-ice goals for per 60 (GF/60) at 5-on-5 in roughly 884 minutes without Guentzel on his wing. When Guentzel was dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes last season, Aho saw his offensive game reach new heights. In about 190 minutes together at 5-on-5, the duo scored 3.78 goals for per 60 (GF/60). This elite scoring pace would have placed 11th amongst skaters in raw on-ice goals for per 60 (GF/60) at 5-on-5 last season. Without Guentzel, Aho’s on-ice scoring rate ranks 83rd in the NHL.
Essentially, Guentzel makes even the star players around him better. No other player on the market this summer elevates raw goal scoring at 5-on-5 like Guentzel. All in all, he is the complete offensive package who will work wonders for the Lightning. Moreover, this signing offers immense value in context.
Guentzel Signing Offers More Value Than Stamkos
Julien BriseBois identified a weakness last season and addressed the issue. Despite losing their captain, the Lightning wisely decided to expand their contention window and improve their 5-on-5 scoring. Steven Stamkos is five years older than Guentzel, and the organization paid an extra $1 million for a better asset. After a season or two, the Nashville Predators will realize Stamkos isn’t worth $8 million a season at this stage in his career. Meanwhile, the Lightning added a dual-threat 5-on-5 scorer who can thrive under any situation and system.
System-Proof Attribute Adds Bonus to Guentzel Signing
The Omaha, Nebraska native is one of the stars around the NHL who deserves more recognition. Many believed Guentzel’s goal-scoring and point totals were inflated throughout his career. After all, one may be skeptical since he didn’t spend a minute away from three-time Stanley Cup Champion Sidney Crosby. However, he proved everyone wrong during his time with the Hurricanes last season.
The 29-year-old forward showed one of the most valuable attributes a player can have in the NHL: he’s a system-proof player. So often, the league witnesses a player thrive with one organization and struggle with a different one. Jonathan Huberdeau isn’t system-proof. The winger recorded 115 points with the Florida Panthers in 2021-22, shattering franchise records. However, his production declined heavily when he joined the Calgary Flames, experiencing the biggest drop-off in points the NHL has ever seen.
As for Guentzel, he showcased the ability to perform without Crosby on his line. The winger recorded 25 points in 17 games with Carolina to close the regular season. Furthermore, he added nine points in 11 playoff games. With power play opportunities and minutes alongside new superstars, Guentzel will help transform the 5-on-5 offensive dynamic of the Lightning next season.
