The Athletic Predicts Atlanta Falcons Collapse in 2025

The Atlanta Falcons finished the 2024 season with a disappointing 8-9 record. There is plenty of hope for the Falcons in 2025 with second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. taking over the NFL’s No. 6 offense and a rebuilt defense that got a serious injection of youthful talent via the NFL Draft. 

When the NFL releases its schedule every April, the oddsmakers quickly follow with an over/under on the team’s win total for the coming season. Mind you, it’s not actually a prediction; it’s a reflection of public sentiment. Oddsmakers want equal money above and below the line, because the irony of Vegas is - they don’t like to gamble

The Falcons' over/under for wins in 2025 is 7.5, according to BetMGM, and The Athletic’s Vic Tafur is taking the under, meaning another 7-10 season, or worse, for Atlanta in 2025. 

“Your guess here is as good as mine,” Tafur wrote on The Athletic, highlighting the wide gap between the ceiling and the floor for this Falcons team. “How good is Michael Penix Jr.? I love the swagger but that can backfire at times and you have to wonder how long the Falcons will let him struggle — if he does — before they go back to Kirk Cousins. That’s part of the deal when you’re paying the backup $27.5 million in salary this year.”  

No, the team isn’t going back to Kirk Cousins despite the inflated salary (which is actually a $40 million cap hit). If things go badly for Penix and the Falcons, there won’t be enough time for Captain Kirk to save the season and the jobs of head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot. The team drafted Penix to lead the team and has very publicly placed all of their eggs in the Penix basket.

“There is talent on this team, and fantasy must-have Drake London turned a corner last season,” Tafur continued. “But there is also some poor roster construction, first evidenced by the pricey QB double-up last year and then by the Falcons signing aging pass rusher Leonard Floyd, drafting pass rusher Jalon Walker in the first round and then trading a future first-round pick to get back in the first round and take pass rusher James Pearce Jr.

“Give me the under.”

Penix was good enough to stay toe-to-toe with Washington, a playoff team, on a Sunday night, in front of millions. Was there this level of smoke for other rookies battling a playoff team in primetime? 

On offense, Atlanta employs more than just "some talent." Bijan Robinson accounted for 1,887 yards from scrimmage, which ranked fourth in the NFL. The names ahead of him: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Now, "poor roster construction." Sure, the Falcons would have liked to have used Cousins’s $40 million cap charge in other areas, but how is Floyd seen as a negative? He’s relatively cheap at $10 million and is an upgrade on Lorenzo Carter. He will also serve as an excellent mentor to Walker and Pearce. 

Double dipping at edge and drafting two defensive backs put a giant thumb on the scale to tip the balance of the team back to neutral after spending the past four seasons drafting offensive skill. 

It’s hard to look at this Falcons team and conclude “yeah, they got worse this offseason.”

If Tafur’s projection of 7 wins or less comes true, there’s going to be a house cleaning in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Falcons wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud is predicting Super Bowls.