Here we sit in the middle of May. While four teams are still playing (well, technically five since the Oilers and Canucks are still slogging through their series) the Tampa Bay Lightning are well into off-season mode. General Manager Julien BriseBois has already started his summer homework by signing Mitchell Chaffee to a two-year contract last week. That leaves him with seven free agents at the NHL level. He can’t sign them all, so lets start off our week by making some slightly educated guesses at where they might end up next season.
There is one big name at the top of the list and then several intriguing names for the Lightning and other teams. Did they do enough with the Bolts last season to earn a raise or a multi-year deal in Tampa or elsewhere? Will they have to settle for another one year deal at league minimum? We won’t really know until July 1st, but we can hazard a guess or two based on skill level and team’s needs.
Steven Stamkos
Let’s start with the Big Kahuna. We’re at a place that no one wanted to get to – the franchise icon possibly just a few months away from signing with a new team. Mr. BriseBois doesn’t want it to happen. Stamkos doesn’t want it to happen. Coach Cooper doesn’t want it to happen. We don’t want it to happen. So why might it happen? Economics, of course. Stamkos had a really strong season and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Couple that with the fact that there are organizations out there that can afford to throw him a bigger number than the Lightning can afford and you can see why he might be tempted.
Still, while money is always important (and the NHLPA wouldn’t be happy if he took too big of a home-town discount) so is familiarity. Stamkos really likes the area and his teammates. He knows his role on the team and the best way to get from his house to the arena. As ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski often says in situations like this: “no one likes moving their stuff”.
At this point we are leaning towards Stamkos staying in Tampa on a four-year deal around $6.5 million per year. The cap hit would still give the Lightning a little flexibility to fill out the roster and is a reasonable amount for Stamkos. For the Lightning, it would be the easiest way to fill a hole on the second line while keeping their power play at the top of the league. Odds of him staying are about 70% in our estimation.
Anthony Duclair
At first blush, keeping Duclair would be a nice option B if Stamkos does indeed end up somewhere else. The only problem with that thought is that he might not be willing to wait for the Lightning to make a decision on the Lightning’s captain. While talking to free agents prior to the opening of free agency is technically illegal, we all know that teams and players find ways around that rule.
Duclair ended up with 42 points (24 goals, 18 assists) between the Lightning and the San Jose Sharks this season. It’s the fourth time in his career that he’s crested the 20 goal mark and at 28-years-old he should still have some offense left in the tank. He’s fast and physical and willing to play in front of the net. While he’s unlikely to ever win a Selke, his offense makes up for any defensive issues he brings to a team.
This was his final season of a three-year, $9 million deal that he signed with in Florida. Had he not been limited to just 20 games due to an injury in 2022-23, it’s likely that he would have rolled out three straight 20+ goal seasons during that deal. It feels like he’s earned a slight bump. The question will be if he gets another multi-year deal. With the cap going up, we think he will.
We also feel like Boston is a good fit for him. The Bruins have some older players like Pat Maroon and James van Riemsdyk coming off of the books and could use some secondary scoring. They also currently have just two forwards signed past the 2025-26 season. They have the cap space and roster spot to fit him in. Our prediction – three years at $4.5 million per season with the Bruins.
Tyler Motte
Some injuries slowed the start of his season, but Motte finished pretty strong for the Lightning, especially once he found a partnership with Like Glendening on the fourth line. After signing with the Bolts for just $800,000, he’s inline to get back up to $1 million. He provides some solid defensive depth and is a good penalty killer. That’s worth at least a million bucks and it feels like the Lightning will bring him back.
Austin Watson
A very late signing for the Lightning last season, Austin Watson, somewhat to our surprise, lasted the entire season with Tampa Bay. He only appeared in 33 games, his fewest since 2020-21 and recorded just four points (two goals, two assists), but was a solid presence in the locker room for the Lightning. It doesn’t feel like that’s enough to bring him back though.
At some point the Lightning will start filling their bottom-six spots with players from Syracuse, and this feels like as good of an opportunity as any. Watson did have a physical presence that likely isn’t matched by anyone in the system, but the Bolts could use a depth forward that is on the ice more than he is in the penalty box.
Watson didn’t sign until August last off-season, and it’s likely to be the same story this summer. He didn’t really do much on the ice to improve his situation, so he’s probably going to have to settle for an invite to training camp and then try to turn that into a contract. There are teams out there that could use a physical presence and solid clubhouse guy. Our prediction is that he gets an invite to Utah’s first training camp.
Matt Dumba
Matt Dumba came to the Lightning at the trade deadline and played fine. He was able to shore up a blue line that was pretty banged up and relying on just a few too many rookies down the stretch. While the offense wasn’t quite there (just two assists in 18 regular season games) he did provide a physical presence in his own zone.
In theory the Lightning should be set on the right side of the defense with Erik Cernak, Darren Raddysh, and Nick Perbix all under contract to return. Perbix’s play stagnated a bit and Cernak is always one hit away from missing a big chunk of the season, but it feels like there are other options for the Lightning to fill that depth and won’t cost as much as Dumba might.
He’s coming off of a two-year, $3.9 million per season deal and while he might not match that, he is likely to be around $3 million even on a single year deal. That might be a bit much for the Bolts, especially if they sign Stamkos. Unfortunately for Dumba, there is a good chance that his biggest Tampa Bay highlight will be getting robbed by Sergei Bobrovsky in the playoffs.
It feels like he is destined for a team that is in a rebuild that could use some veteran physicality on the blue line. In our opinion, he’s heading to Chicago on a two-year, $3.2 million per season deal.
Calvin de Haan
Contrary to popular thought, Calvin de Haan had a better season defensively than a lot of Lightning fans think. Was he the second coming of Ray Borque? No, but for a third-pairing defenseman, he did alright for most of the season. He did seem to fade a bit at the end of the season and was scratched for the stretch run, appearing in just seven games after the trade deadline and just one in the playoffs.
At 33-years-old he’s likely in the phase of his career where he’s bouncing from team to to team on one-year deals for near the league minimum. There is a small chance that the Bolts bring him back to compete for the sixth or seventh spot, but it feels like the Bolts go in a different direction.
In our best guess, despite a decent season, de Haan has to earn a contract with a strong training camp as an invite. It feels like he might be heading out west and seeing if he can make the Ducks squad.
Haydn Fleury
A late-season injury derailed what was turning into a quietly solid season for Fleury. He only appeared in 24 games and didn’t see action past early April. Still, he managed to post 5 points (1 goal, 4 assists) which was the most offense he’s put up since 2019-20. He can play both sides of the ice and has size.
It feels like the Lightning may give him another chance and he comes back for one season at $800,000 to compete for the seventh spot on the defense and fill in for any injuries.
Things can change over the next few months and moves might beget other moves in order to make the cap situation work out. For instance, signing Stamkos might force Mr. BriseBois to move another contract and free up a spot for one of these players to come back.
