The Golden Knights Don’t Have a Goaltending Problem, But…

Both goaltenders performed well. Thompson finished the postseason with 5.2 goals saved above expected, and Hill saved 2.9 goals above expected. They arguably outplayed Dallas Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger. Oettinger finished the series with an average save percentage of .935 and 2.53 goals saved above expected.

Goaltending was far from the reason the Golden Knights were bounced in the first round; combined, Hill and Thompson allowed -8.16 goals above expected. Instead, the Golden Knights struggled to finish and ended the series with -1.61 goals above expected. But as for goaltending, both netminders played so well that it was like both they commanded to be played.

That won’t be the case this season.

This year, the Golden Knights have allowed -12.88 goals above expected, but it hasn’t exactly been a joint effort. Adin Hill has allowed -11.5 goals above expected; Ilya Samsonov has allowed .5 goals above expected. 

It’s mid-March, and one thing is clear: the Golden Knights have a clear-cut number one in net this season. They don’t have a ‘goaltending problem,’ but it certainly might become an issue in the last few weeks of the regular season.

Here’s why:

When I When The Playoffs Come Around

Once the playoffs begin, it’ll be Adin Hill’s net to lose. If history is any indication, he’s far from a weakness when the lights are brightest. Hill has a postseason record of 12-6-0 and an average save percentage of .932 through 19 games. When the Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup in 2022-23, Hill saved 7.7 goals above expected. In elimination games, Hill has a record of 3-1, an average save percentage of .943, and averages 2.99 goals saved above expected.

So, they won’t have a goaltending problem once the Golden Knights reach the postseason. But every game between now and the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs holds tremendous magnitude.

In Samsonov’s Defense…

So, before we address the elephant in the room, it’s important to put things into perspective.

First and foremost, Ilya Samsonov is a backup goaltender. He’s paid as such, and he performs as such. There aren’t many backup goaltenders in the league that consistently steal games. That’s what a starter is for.

Samsonov’s job is to give the Golden Knights a chance to win every time he starts in goal. Most nights, he does just that. Like every other goaltender in the league– backup or starter– he has off-nights. But there are also games where he has been the sole reason the Golden Knights won, secured a point, or hung in it.

Also, Samsonov hasn’t been nearly as bad as some people think he has. Fans have crucified Samsonov for his play on Tuesday against the Pittsburgh Penguins, but he still finished the game with .15 goals saved above expected. Was he exceptional? No, but Samsonov did his job. It’s hard to take him to task for any of the three goals that the Penguins scored.

Samsonov is a backup. He’s outplaying most of the other backups in the league and even a few of the starters. He’ll deliver if you temper your expectations and ask him for backup-quality play.

Now, The Bad News

Ilya Samsonov won’t be in net come playoff time, but a lot is riding on him playing well in the last few weeks of the regular season. He’ll probably get at least seven or eight starts in the last 18 games of the regular season. Through 26 games this season, Samsonov has a record of 15-8-3 and an average save percentage of .899. In his last 10 starts, he has a record of 4-4-2.

The Golden Knights have a 99.96% chance of making the playoffs. These final games determine seeding, matchups, and which teams will have home-ice advantage. 

Here’s where things get hairy: the Golden Knights need to win the Pacific Division in a bad way. The Golden Knights lead the Edmonton Oilers in the Pacific Division by five points and the Los Angeles Kings by six. If they don’t win the Division, they’ll be locked into a first-round matchup with either the Oilers or the Kings. 

I think they’d beat the Oilers in a best-of-seven series, but I also think it would really, really wear them down. Jack Eichel is more than capable of neutralizing Connor McDavid, but Eichel is more effective when he can also contribute offensively. The Golden Knights don’t want to play the Oilers in round one.

The Golden Knights don’t want to play the Kings at all. The Kings’ system is very effective at limiting the Golden Knights offensively, and the Kings have small, speedy forwards who can make them pay. It’s simply a bad matchup, and it’s one I don’t think the Golden Knights would win.

The Golden Knights have the fifth-easiest remaining strength of schedule; the Oilers have the third-easiest. If the Golden Knights don’t hold pace, the Oilers threaten to overtake them in the standings; if that happens, the Golden Knights will play the Kings in round one of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It’s unlikely that the Kings will win the Division, but there’s still a chance.

The Golden Knights will win the Pacific Division if they take care of business and continue playing well down the stretch. Their goaltender will play a key part in that, and Adin Hill can’t start every game.