2024 has been cruel in a unique way for the Cincinnati Bengals.
There are many reasons to point out. Cincinnati has lost three games to the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens by a combined five points. Free agent acquisitions such as Trent Brown, Sheldon Rankins, and Geno Stone haven't panned out. Tee Higgins has missed nearly as many games as he's played.
Count up all the thorns and the Bengals are 4-6. The real dagger in the heart is that record exists despite Joe Burrow and the few elite teammates he has playing the best football of their careers.
And for that reason, unlike past years when the Bengals were in this spot, hope has not died out.
Hope is not lost on the Bengals turning their season around
ESPN's Seth Walder grouped every team into eight different tiers of playoff chances and had the Bengals in the tier of "On the fringe of hope and despair." The reasons why they weren't lower despite their statistical playoff odds? Burrow and edge defender Trey Hendrickson.
"On one hand, the Bengals have a mediocre record and a struggling defense. On the other, quarterback Joe Burrow is having his best season and defensive end Trey Hendrickson is a leading Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Those latter two factors are mighty compelling, so I'm bullish on Cincinnati despite its current win total. The passing game gives the Bengals a chance to keep up with anyone and could set them up for a postseason run ... but they must get there first." - ESPN's Seth Walder
Burrow is having his best season according to ESPN's QBR in which he his highest-ever rating at 74.3. Hendrickson boasts ESPN's highest pass rush win rate among healthy edge defenders at 27%. But despite Burrow playing out of his mind and Hendrickson leading the league in sacks, the Bengals have been the victors of just one close game and have fell in five other opportunities.
This fact is not lost on The Ringer's Shiel Kapadia, and yet he's not counting out the team with Burrow.
"And finally, regular readers of this column know that I’m not going to give up on the Bengals until I absolutely have to. They’ve been arguably the unluckiest team in the NFL. Cincinnati is 1-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Only the Jaguars have a worse winning percentage in such games. Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level, and Cincy’s passing game is going to keep the team competitive every week. If the Bengals can find some answers on defense (and that’s a big if!), they are going to have a chance down the stretch." - The Ringer's Shiel Kapadia
It's all a numbers game at the end of the day. The Bengals have to beat out their competition to snag one of the final wild card spots. The Denver Broncos, led by rookie QB Bo Nix, appear to be their closest adversary. Good Morning Football's Kyle Brandt is still taking the team with the worse record.
"If you're asking me a .500 Broncos team with a rookie quarterback, versus a 4-6 Bengals team with Joe Burrow, I have to go in. I have to go in," Brandt said. "I want to quit the Bengals. I'm annoyed with them. They always lose every time we get excited. I'm trying to have a rule that I don't talk about sub .500 teams. Why not? I'm in here."
This is how people now view the Bengals. Despite organizational flaws, the inability to close out games, and coaching deficiencies, Burrow (and the few teammates he has with comparable talent) inspire hope. It didn't use to be this way before he arrived, and it probably won't be like this after he eventually leaves. He carries a gravity that is unlikely anything Cincinnati has seen before.
Burrow, Trey Hendrickson, and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase are on track to become Pro Bowlers and potentially First Team All-Pros through 10 games. Oh yeah, Chase is first in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns this year. No biggie.
It's rare when a single team has players at all three positions playing at this level. It's more rare when that team has more losses than wins.
"You look at how we're [Chase and I] playing and then you look at Trey Hendrickson, how he's playing, it's a tough pill to swallow," Burrow said after last Thursday's loss to the Baltimore Ravens. "It's tough when you feel like you're playing well enough to win and you're not, but there's always more to do."
Words of a dude folks just can't quit.
The Bengals may not make the playoffs this year. The odds are against them at 4-6. But so long as Burrow is standing, the flame will not die out. That much is now clear.
