The two paths forward for Nick Robertson and the Maple Leafs

A year later and Nick Robertson is once again a free agent. The situation is familiar but with a few variations. Last year, Nick Robertson entered the summer disappointed with the amount of time he spent in the Toronto Maple Leafs’ lineup when a full season of usage saw him at a 20-goal pace. He wanted more playing time and the Leafs dangled the carrot that there was a need in the lineup for secondary scoring. This year, again, Robertson was a scratch at times, including throughout the playoffs and once again the Leafs are looking short on offensive producers. The carrot for opportunity is once again there.

There are differences too. Last year, it was actively known that there was a trade demand in place by Robertson, he wanted an opportunity, but either through the Leafs’ need for an affordable player like Robertson or the sense that there wasn’t an opportunity to get any value out of him in trade, Brad Treliving held his ground and the contract didn’t get resolved until September. This year it seems that the Leafs are the team more likely to explore the trade options and by going the arbitration route, there is no chance of a hold out, just potentially an inflated cap hit. It’s these subtle variations that make things interesting this summer.

Robertson’s place on the Leafs

Robertson is now safely a bottom six secondary scorer capable of 15-goals in that situation while not playing a full season. His pace slowed this year, his assists dropped off, but the Leafs weren’t as deep offensively either. The hope was that Robertson would fill some of the gap created by the departure of Tyler Bertuzzi, but arguably Nick did his job and then some by keeping his goal total up while playing with more limited offensive depth.

Robertson is still primarily a one-dimensional player who is on the ice to score. He’s willingness to forecheck and retrieve pucks despite his size is an encouraging attribute, and he has a wrist shot that parallels Auston Matthews’, but Robertson still lacks much value when the Leafs don’t possess the puck. If you are going to be one-dimensional, goal scorer is the dimension to have though.

The unrestricted free agent class didn’t offer much in the way of players that could produce Robertson’s level of offence. As the names quickly came off the board even prior to July 1st, it became clear that there wouldn’t be offensive upgrades readily available and it presented a unique situation for the Leafs with Robertson. Here is a player that might be the best internal option for a bigger role and fills a need for the Leafs, but on the other hand, here’s a young offensively talented forward that could be a trade asset for the Leafs in a deal where a team is looking for either a younger or cheaper alternative to the player that the Leafs are looking to acquire. And on a roster filled with no trade clauses, Robertson is one of the easiest Leafs assets to move.

Keeping Robertson

A big part of the appeal of keeping Robertson is that the Leafs can try something new with him. Matias Maccelli brings a potential playmaking linemate and Nicolas Roy represents a centre who make up for Robertson’s lack of defensive awareness. The move away from Marner has afforded the Leafs the opportunity to bring more balance across the top nine forward group and there is reason to believe that Robertson has been penciled in as the third line finisher.

That seems all well and good until you factor in consistency and Robertson still poses a big risk in that regard as well. Strong performances in December, February, and April from Robertson were cancelled out by underwhelming performances in January, and March, not to mention being an absolute ghost on the scoresheet in October and November. A lot of that comes down to who Robertson was playing with and how well those lines were performing at the time too, and if you take the first two months of 2024-25 out of the equation, Robertson looks like a very acceptable 22 point in 49 game bottom sixer, there are plenty of reasons to not write off the soon to be 24-year old just yet.

Trading Robertson

On paper, a consistent 15-goal scorer who is yet to play 70-games in a season who is under 25-years-old is going to gain some interest in a weak trade market. He’s a player that would be excited for a bigger role and can join the core of a team that is on the rebuilding/retooling path and answer the question of who will put the puck in the net for them. At the same time, from the Leafs’ perspective, there are probably some teams out there that clearly at the bottom of the league and minute have some pending UFAs for next summer that they know won’t be returning. They can gamble on the price going up by the trade deadline or they can avoid paying them and risking injury and pick up Robertson now.

I’m not going to try and play matchmaker and assume any one for one value regarding Robertson as I suspect there is plenty of variance in what teams see in his potential and where they’d use him in their lineup, but with arbitration now protecting Robertson from receiving an offer sheet, the Leafs will likely be active in looking at their trade options up until Robertson’s arbitration date.

Robertson’s arbitration

It seems like the Leafs hold all the cards in this situation as Robertson had a better statistical 2023-24 than 2024-25 and after that season he signed a $894k one-year deal. His qualifying offer of $919k is likely where the Leafs would dig in their heels in arbitration, and the comparable players for Robertson don’t point to a big payday either. While it seemed like giving a qualifying offer to Robertson might have been an expensive risk for the Maple Leafs, you’d have to look at Jack Quinn’s $3.375M AAV deal (based on 15-goals and 39-points) or Nils Hoglander’s $3M AAV (signed on the strength of a 24-goal season he didn’t repeat) as the comparable deals while ignoring the contracts for Tye Kartye, Emil Heineman, Jonatan Berggren, Mavrik Bourque, and Jesper Boqvist, all of whom came in at more favourable deals at $1.825M or less.

Brad Treliving has a favourite cap hit of $1.35M and it seems like the Leafs and Robertson are on a collision course to that number. If the Leafs and Robertson are planning on staying in each others lives, they’ll get to that number sometime between now and when they are about to set foot in the arbitration hearing and arguably the hold up in that regard is likely that Toronto is exploring their trade options and both Toronto and Robertson would see some benefit in the new club controlling their own fate in regards to signing Nick.

Whether it is by returning or via a trade return, Robertson seems like he’ll play an important role in how the Leafs’ score goals in 2025-26.