If the Vancouver Canucks don’t sign Filip Hronek, it will be a step backward for a team that spent years looking for him.
Canucks Must Sign Filip Hronek
We’ve mentioned before how no sport is as heavily influenced by luck as hockey is. The weird shape of a puck, the durability of the sticks, the ice surfaces changing just a bit every time a player crosses it. Skill still determines which team is more likely to win, but there’s always a chance… Even off the ice, luck can play a huge role in a team’s success.
Ever since Quinn Hughes dropped into their lap, the Canucks have been searching for a right-handed skater to pair him with. The thinking was that a player this light and skilled would be best served with a strong veteran. So it began with Luke Schenn and continued through the years. Tyler Myers, Chris Tanev, Travis Hamonic, Jordie Benn, and Tucker Poolman all had their shot as his regular partner.
Even Kyle Burroughs and Noah Juulsen got over 100 minutes with Hughes to see how well it worked. Finally, Ethan Bear changed people’s minds. Schenn had to get traded away for the Hughes-Bear experiment to happen, but when it did a light came on. What if, the hypothesis went, we put two talented defencemen together?
Exit Bo Horvat. Enter Filip Hronek. And, not coincidentally, Hughes threatening the century mark and Hronek’s career-high 48-point season.
It wasn’t the perfect season for Hronek, but it came pretty close. And the restricted free agent plans to get paid for it, in Vancouver or elsewhere.
The Problem With Math
For the Canucks to sign Filip Hronek, they need to decide what he will do for them. There’s a temptation to look at a smaller sample of play when a skater has an uneven year and say “THAT’S the real player!” For those fans, there’s the option of cutting Hronek’s season in half. Until mid-January, he was a force to be reckoned with. After that, his numbers plummeted.
They were still decent on the defensive side, but his offence dried up. Just 12 points in 39 games is not what was expected after 36 points in his first 42. Hronek’s first playoff appearance was likewise disappointing, though he did score the Canucks last goal of the season. Adding that to his one assist in 13 games makes fans wonder if he was one of the players who gave just a little bit more…
So a strong start that faded out, disappointing playoffs, and reliance on a star player. That means he shouldn’t expect much, right? Not so fast.
At the end-of-season presser, we finally say what can only be described as swaddling clothes for his arm. He was clearly injured, though he refuses to talk about it publicly. An injured arm would curtail his offence, even if it didn’t change his positioning. He went months between slap shots, though his passing remained decent. Something obviously happened during the year, even if he refuses to admit it.
The question remains: if the Caucks do sign Filip Hronek, which one are they getting? There’s a lot of money and a fair amount of team success riding on the answer.
Filip-ping Cards
Hronek has already turned down one “substantial” offer, according to GM Patrik Allvin. Reporter Irfan Gaffar placed it at eight years and approximately $6.5 million. That would keep him in the fold through what is now the Canucks Stanley Cup window in the next few years. At that length, the cap hit can remain relatively low, allowing the team to improve. But it also buys a lot of free-agent seasons.
If you believe that Hronek missing the 50-point mark is a true indicator of his skill, then that wasn’t just a substantial offer but a huge one. He hasn’t proven that he can carry his own pairing with Vancouver yet – something the Canucks would love. And his points came from being beside Hughes as well as his own skill. He’s good, but he’s not THAT good!
On the other hand, you may believe that his injury hampered his play and his first half was the more accurate representation. If that’s the case, then we have a defenseman who was close to 70 points on the season. And that’s without first unit power play time. If the Vancouver Canucks want to sign Filip Hronek, they’ll need to pay him like the 70-point defenceman he is!
There is the salary cap to consider, of course. The Canucks only have three NHL defensemen signed right now – if you accept Noah Juulsen as a bottom-pair defender. Having Hronek’s skill on the top pair pushes other players into more fitting positions. There’s little chance a free agent signing will be higher in the pecking order.
Oh, My Stars!
One thing that doesn’t need to be considered is whether he “should” earn more money than Quinn Hughes. Hughes’ contract was signed three seasons ago, and it’s a different world now. Three years from now, the salary cap will increase, and the Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout penalty will drop by over $2.5 million. If Hronek gets a higher cap hit for now, he will get leapfrogged by Hughes next time. And by a substantial amount.
The Hughes hit is currently $7.85 million. If Hronek insists on breaking that height, he and the team might try a very short-term signing. He has arbitration rights, and if Vancouver offers a minimal qualifying offer, he will justifiably take them to arbitration. At that point, the team will be locked into a deal they didn’t want or plan for while having their money tied up.
However, that doesn’t mean the cap itself isn’t a concern. After next season, that Ekman-Larsson penalty will increase by $2.5 million, and Hronek’s contract needs to reflect that. The Canucks need to add – and keep – talent if they want to improve rather than stand still. There are few options out there to replace a defenseman as young and skilled as Hronek.
The team could go low, with cheaper options on the right side. After all, Hughes has shown how well he can play with various performers on his right side. As long as they can keep up with his skating, they’ll work as a plug-in. But don’t count on Hughes reaching 100 points.
And that might just be Hronek’s best argument.
