The William Nylander scoring boom: Why it’s more than just shooting luck

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ relative lack of goal scoring has been a story all season, but William Nylander hasn’t encountered any of the issues that are plaguing some of his teammates.

While it’s no surprise to see a guy coming off consecutive 40-goal seasons fill the back of the net, Nylander has never ranked higher than 14th in the NHL in goals scored. So he wasn’t expected to be in the Rocket Richard Trophy race at the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Even if Leon Draisaitl (who has 40 goals) isn’t losing sleep just yet, Nylander ranks second in the NHL in goals (33) and he’s on pace for 49 — a significant jump from his career high.

It’s an unusual development for a player deep into his prime at age 28, whose role on his team has not expanded in a notable way. Nylander is seeing nearly exactly the same amount of ice this season, playing just six fewer seconds a game than he did last season (19:49 vs. 19:55), and he’s being put in a similar position to score, spending most of his time on a line with John Tavares and skating more than 70 percent of his team’s power-play minutes.

The obvious explanation for Nylander’s scoring is a jump in shooting percentage, particularly since he shot more on a per-game and per-60 basis in each of his past two seasons. After posting a shooting percentage between 12.7 and 13.7 percent in each of the last four seasons prior to 2024-25 — with a career average of 12.9 percent — the winger is at 17.7 percent this season, soaring above his expected baseline.

Part of that boost has to do with the five empty-net goals Nylander has scored, the highest total of his career. But even if we take those away, he still has a shooting percentage of 15.5 percent, which is an unusually high number for him.

NHL Edge data tell us this isn’t explained by Nylander shooting meaningfully harder than before, either. His max shot velocity is down nearly 3 mph, while his average is up by a modest 1.67 mph. It’s unsurprising, of course, that the Swede hasn’t found a new shot-power gear in his 10th NHL season.

The difference this year? He’s firing the puck from more dangerous locations. Below is a breakdown of what percentage of his shots came from which areas, according to NHL Edge classifications, in 2024-25 vs. 2023-24.

Nylander’s mid-range shooting activity is essentially unchanged from last year, but he’s cut down on low-percentage long-range shots and has put more attempts on net from dangerous spots.

His shot charts reinforce this story. Let’s start by looking at his shot locations last season at five-on-five:

In this picture, the yellow dots represent goals, the orange are misses, and the green are shots on goal. We’ve left the power play aside because his place in its structure limits where he’s able to shoot from, and he’s scored more PP goals/60 in two other seasons, proving the man advantage isn’t driving his 2024-25 production.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with that shooting profile, as Nylander is a high-volume shooter who was rewarded for attacking from a variety of areas. At the same time, the winger’s shot selection in 2024-25 has been more refined:

A couple of areas really stand out here.

Nylander has done significantly less firing the puck from just inside the blue line. He has also completely cut out bad-angle attempts from the left side and made good use of the high slot, which was a surprisingly sparse area for him in 2023-24.

In cases where a player starts taking more dangerous shots, it’s often credited as a “willingness to get to the dirty areas,” but in Nylander’s case, many of his best opportunities come on breakaways or off the rush. It would be difficult to claim he’s suddenly engaged Zach Hyman mode. Instead, it appears he’s been a bit more savvy when it comes to passing on low-percentage looks while not shying away when he gets a legitimate chance.

Nylander hasn’t become a different player, but the rubber he’s putting on the net is more dangerous than it was last season, and he’s being rewarded for it. While his five empty-net goals are helping matters, he’s also earned his new coach’s trust to protect leads late in games. He deserves credit for that, as he hasn’t been a lock to earn that ice time in the past.

The 28-year-old’s scoring uptick is more of a nifty development than a true revelation for the Maple Leafs, but it is certainly welcome for the team given that Auston Matthews is posting a career-low G/60 (1.46), Mitch Marner is producing his second-lowest rate (0.83), the entire bottom-six has been an offensive sinkhole and the blue line has posed minimal threat.

In most seasons, a star player scoring a little bit more is a relatively mundane outcome. For the 2024-25 Maple Leafs, Nylander stepping up has been critical.