Too early for Marner drama, plea for simplicity, and purposeful lines: Leaflets

One of the worst things that can happen is that a team doesn’t immediately improve the second that trade deadline ends.

It would be nice if the Toronto Maple Leafs were in the same situation as the Senators, Kings, Avs, and Canes which all received nice little post trade deadline bumps or at least consistent holding of pace following their moves, but when has that ever really been the case for the Leafs? They choose the hard way and a 1-2-0 record with the new guys is treated as a reason for panic, fully ignoring that the Lightning have a 0-2-1 record over that same short stretch and the Jets and Stars are also limited to one win since the big day.

This is where I make the argument for getting significant trades done early in the year, especially for players that need to adjust to the Leafs system instead of someone the Leafs intend to build their strategy around. The Bruins have an established way. John Tortorella is unique in his approach. Carlo and Laughton will take time to figure out the Leafs, it just hopefully happens before the playoffs.

Here are some other stray thoughts:

Put a pin in the Marner situation

Is there any point to getting worked up about Marner right now? Is there any benefit? I’d suggest the answer to both is no, but with the recognition that if you are in the pro-Marner camp, you need some time to kick dirt over Mitch getting asked to waive his no movement clause, and if you are in the pro-Treliving camp, the idea of bringing in a return for a player that shows every intention of testing the free agency waters (although that could just as easily be negotiating through the media).

Where I think everyone can also be a little exhausted is with Mitch Marner talking about how much he loves the Leafs and the Leafs talking about how much they love Mitch Marner. There is also plenty of reason to be annoyed that no contract talks have taken place. That said, the rocks have been kicked and returning to the realization that nothing is going to change between now and the summer should be setting in.

When the Leafs and Marner do revisit it, there will continue to be easy ways to be optimistic and pessimistic about what is happening, and we will armed with fresh recency bias of the playoffs which will likely weigh heavily into the process.

Optimistically, if Marner stays, the Leafs have a great player under contract and if he performed well in the playoffs, even better. If he walks, it is not for nothing as the demand likely was in excess of $13M AAV and that is money the Leafs can spend in other ways. There might not be another player in free agency that can come near the 100-point mark like Marner has done throughout his career, but there is a crop of capable 30-goal scorers and abundance of good players that would fall in the $7M AAV range.

I guess you could look at it as, do you want Marner and Reaves in the lineup producing 30 goals and 100 points, or do you want Mikael Granlund and Sam Bennett who can produce around 50 goals and 120 points? (This is before even considering the trade options that could benefit the Leafs this summer) The point is there are options and not selling Marner at time when the Leafs are competitive made sense. You can still be mad he wasn’t traded back in June of 2023 before his full no movement clause kicked in though.

As for the pessimist, the Marner situation is pretty easy to figure out. He’s either going to be too expensive or he’s going to leave too big a hole in the lineup. Or maybe it’s just that you don’t trust Brad Treliving with that amount of cap space. Being negative is easy, but honestly my read on the situation is that it is an exciting situation and one that I think will be amped up by the results of the Leafs playoff showing.

It will be fun, but trying to win first in the division and getting ready for the playoffs needs to be the focus now, not Marner.

Keep it simple, Scott

I’ll likely spend the rest of March forgiving a multitude of sins from Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton and attempt to cut Craig Berube as much slack as possible in that time as well. New players finding their way to a team with the pressure the Leafs are under isn’t easy when even home games likely mean living in a hotel away from your family and having to form new relationships quickly in a locker room is a pain in the ass. Throw in the fact that both Carlo and Laughton have only been with one organization throughout their careers and it becomes more difficult as they don’t have a previous experience to learn from.

That’s where simplicity in their games needs to be part of their plan. They’ve both been brought in for specific needs and both have something to add on the penalty kill as well, but easing into it seems like a good course of action.

Second unit responsibilities on the penalty kill make a ton of sense and the Leafs seem to be doing that. There is no reason to throw them into the deep end and the Leafs’ penalty kill wasn’t terrible beforehand anyway.

With Carlo, you know you want him next to Morgan Rielly, but finding a balance in the right moments also makes sense. It can be as simple as putting Carlo with the third pairing situationally and letting Rielly take a few shifts with Myers, who he has a bit of success/familiarity as well.

And as for Laughton, much has been made of how Laughton knows Domi and it’s great having him as a friendly face on his line. That probably needs to be downgraded to a friendly face in the locker room. If the goal is set up Laughton as a successful option as a third line centre, Domi’s inability to figure out the defensive zone of the ice is too big a hindrance for someone who has too much on their plate. To the point in my next section, the Leafs need to figure out what they want their third line to be and build it with intention out of the players that haven’t already been designated to the top two lines.

Carlo and Laughton are both good players, even if their numbers don’t always show it. Creating an easier way for them to familiarize themselves with the Leafs seems beneficial and admittedly a tough test against the Panthers this week didn’t help.

Three purposeful lines

The Leafs have a lot of good forwards. The depth on the team is a reason to be optimistic about the playoffs and bonuses like Bobby McMann being for real and Calle Jarnkrok returning from injury set the team up nicely when you’ve got five guys at the top of the depth chart that there is good reason to be excited about (I think we can now start lumping Matthew Knies into that top tier.)

Still, similar things can be said about the Leafs teams of the past and come playoff time, the lines have either lacked intention, or wanting a line to do a certain thing resulted in a group of players with decent attributes being put in situations over their abilities.

Where I’d suggest things go wrong is trying to fit all the pieces together to produce four lines that make sense. That’s a hard task on any team and maybe in a perfect health situation against the right opponent it works. The more reasonable task seems to be to take on three lines that make perfect sense and then rely on the fourth line and the press box to produce the right understudies who either aide in special teams or situational deployment.

The Leafs top line has a set purpose. Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies will certainly be a part of it and in all likelihood it will be Mitch Marner staying put with that duo as well. The line is to simply be the best alternative in any given situation and is who the Leafs have always wanted against the best, while the opposition wants to counter with their best option to shut down the offence of that group. This is part of why some leeway needs to be given in offensive production in the post season as the gameplan is to smother them.

The Tavares line is a trickier puzzle to put together. At the heart of it is John Tavares, who is likely the centre that will require the most sheltering. He’s at best a safe harbour in his own end where the puck can be sent to be safely moved out of the zone, but if he is placed with less defensively capable wingers, the struggle increases and the drag and drop linemate approach doesn’t work as well here. Max Pacioretty, Pontus Holmberg, and Bobby McMann have all worked alongside Tavares, as has Calle Jarnkrok, but almost always those players and Tavares produced because Marner or Nylander was part of the equation as well. If Tavares is to be at his best, and Matthews is to be at his best, it seems like all of the top talent will need to be in the top two lines.

Figuring out the Laughton line will be the biggest challenge. He can be used at both ends of the ice but if you are specifically assigning Laughton’s line to shutdown a top unit, you are going to have a bad time. That still needs to be the responsibility of the Matthews line. Early days show that Max Domi is too much of a defensive blackhole to attach to Laughton, so perhaps the best compromise is with other players that can handle play at both ends of the ice like Bobby McMann, Pontus Holmberg, or Calle Jarnkrok. Max Pacioretty might be a stretch to put into this situation, but with how physical he’s been this year, the idea of a Laughton-McMann-Pacioretty line crashing around the ice might be something to strive for while Holmberg or Jarnkrok are better defensive safety nets.

That brings us to the fourth line and we haven’t even mentioned Lorentz, Kampf, or Robertson yet. Throw Alex Steeves into the mix as a possibility as well, although a distant one given the depth, and recognize that only three of McMann, Holmberg, Jarnkrok, and Pacioretty were used in the previous few lines, and you have an interesting assortment of players. Players that you could either try to put into a purposeful line, or you can just grab the three that you want to use on special teams, situationally on the previous three lines, and trust that it will work out. The nice part is that aside from Pacioretty and Robertson, almost all of them can do spot duty at centre as well.

Carrying Domi for sheltered situations might be his best use at this point. Lorentz seems to have carved out a role as Berube’s designated heavy hitter, and Holmberg, Kampf, and Jarnkrok all represent solid penalty killing/defensive zone specialist roles. And there is enough talent that putting a line out of that cast as required isn’t an automatic goal against. The fourth line allows for a lot of adaptability to opponents and when you need to customize and adapt to regular opposition in the playoffs, it’s not a bad way to approach things. It also avoids a common NHL coaching mistake of falling in love with a set group working well together for their nine minutes a night. Good fourth liners should move up in the lineup, not be kept together.

For the Leafs it seems like they are in a relatively good situation in putting together their lines, but the biggest challenge over the next month will be creating something purposeful and worthwhile out of the Laughton line.