Javier Assad continues to progress in his recovery from an oblique injury suffered early in camp, but the Chicago Cubs have already confirmed he'll open the regular season on the IL. That opens up a spot in the starting rotation and provides a psuedo-spring battle among several arms that could slot into that opening.
Assad, 27, carried the heaviest workload of his career in 2024, but continued to outperform his peripherals, working to a 3.73 ERA (4.64 FIP) across 147 innings. Manager Craig Counsell, more or less, told reporters that the math doesn't math when looking at the right-hander being ready for Opening Day.
“We want to give him a proper buildup, and that means a couple bullpens, a couple lives, and then starting a ramp-up as a starter,” Counsell said, “That puts some days on the calendar and gets you into the season.”
So, if maybe for only a trip or two through the rotation, the Cubs will need someone to slot in. Here are three guys to keep an eye on in the coming weeks who could make the most of the situation and open the season at the back of the starting rotation.
If he stays healthy, Ben Brown offers upside and a different look
Ben Brown seems to have put his neck injury behind him and is finally healthy. He hasn't been particularly sharp in Cactus League action, with his velo down a touch and surrendering six runs on nine hits in a pair of outings. However, it's still in the early going and there's more than enough time for him to find his form by the team's March 27 domestic opener against the Diamondbacks.
What I like about Brown in this spot is he offers a look wildly different than anyone else in the Chicago rotation. He's a big, overpowering righty - and could really change up the look opposing hitters get during a tough stretch of schedule to open the season. The upside is what makes him a feasible option here; the rational thinker in me, though, thinks he'll open the year at Triple-A.
Before that injury curtailed his 2024 season, Brown certainly looked like he belonged on a big-league staff, splitting time between the rotation and bullpen for the Cubs, working to a 1.61 ERA and 2.05 FIP from April 3 to May 28, a stretch bookended by a tough Opening Night appearance in relief of an injured Justin Steele and his two final appearances of the season in which he was pretty clearly not 100 percent.
Colin Rea could be the most logical option to pick up these starts
This offseason, the Cubs brought in a face familiar to Counsell in former Brewers right-hander Colin Rea. The 34-year-old spent the last two years in Milwaukee and actually pitched for the Cubs back in 2020, as well, but last season he was a workhorse for the Brewers, tossing nearly 170 innings across 27 starts and five relief appearances.
On a one-year, $5 million deal with a player option for 2026, Rea was signed to be this guy - a swingman capable of eating up multiple innings out of the pen or, in cases like this, stepping into the rotation to fill a gap caused by injury.
Rea isn't the sexiest name to pencil in, but the veteran sinkerballer limits the walks and will, more or less, give you what you would have typically received from Assad. If I were a betting man, Rea is the guy taking that fifth spot in the rotation come the regular season.
Brad Keller has turned heads - and could opt out if he doesn't make the team
Assad opening the year on the IL opens up a roster spot - and it could give the Cubs a little more time to find a way to keep Brad Keller in the fold. The veteran right-hander came into camp guns blazing, pumping mid-90s fastballs past hitters and far exceeding the velo we've come to expect from him.
With a four-seamer that seems to have gained a full 2 MPH over the offseason, Keller is looking to get things back on track after really struggling in recent years, having never been able to recapture his early-career success as a member of the Royals. The Assad injury could be the perfect opportunity for him to make the most of things with the Cubs.
He's got experience starting - and the improved stuff will play out of the rotation or as a reliever. Long-term, you probably want him out of the pen to limit his workload with this newfound velocity, but letting him spot start a couple times to open the year might not be the worst idea.
