Top-5 draft pick within reach as Flyers enter final month of season

The Philadelphia Flyers are moving on up! In the draft order that is.

After beating the Winnipeg Jets on March 1, the Flyers had 62 points. That was more points than eight other teams in the league. Now, waking up on March 20, the Flyers have 64 points, the fifth-fewest in the NHL.

The rebuild has been hard to watch and even harder to play through for the Flyers after the trade deadline, but there is hope on the horizon in the form of a top-five (or better) pick.

There is now less than one month remaining in the season. Let’s check in on the bottom of the standings and where the Flyers may ultimately end up.

The Basement

San Jose Sharks – 45 PTS in 68 GP
Chicago Blackhawks – 49 PTS in 67 GP

The Sharks and Blackhawks are taking the full-on approach to tanking. While they each have a centerpiece and some support around them, it’s going to be a while before they’re competitive again. They’re firmly in position for a top-three pick in this year’s draft.

In the Hunt

After the basement dwellers, there are a handful of teams who are in the hunt for the rest of those coveted high lottery picks.

Nashville Predators – 58 PTS in 66 GP

The Predators had high hopes for this season after an active offseason but fell flat on their faces early on. They didn’t really sell at the deadline and rattled off four wins in a row earlier this month.

The Flyers are currently six points clear of the Predators with a month left in the season. Nashville has some winnable games coming up, including in Philadelphia to end the month, but the Preds still have six games against top teams in the Stars (two), Golden Knights (two), Hurricanes, and Maple Leafs.

Ultimately, it’s unlikely that the Predators catch the Flyers in the standings but there could be a chance with their three games in hand.

Buffalo Sabres – 60 PTS in 66 GP

The Sabres are constantly rebuilding and are in position for a top-five pick this season. They also put together a strong stretch of play recently with wins in three of their last four games over Edmonton, Vegas, and Boston, but they don’t have many slam-dunk games left.

The Flyers do face off against the Sabres two more times this season — including in Game 82 on April 17. That combined with Buffalo having 16 games remaining to Philadelphia’s 13 remaining should make this a tank battle to watch in the final month of the season.

Philadelphia Flyers – 64 PTS in 69 GP

This is where the Flyers sit as of now. They’ve dropped all the way down to a top-five pick and only have a small handful of winnable games left in their final 13 contests.

Pittsburgh Penguins – 66 PTS in 70 GP

Pittsburgh has played surprisingly well since the trade deadline. The Pens won four games in a row before Tuesday night’s loss to the Islanders.

The Penguins have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but they’re also more talented. That talent could keep them above a top-five pick and ahead of Philadelphia in the standings.

Seattle Kraken – 65 PTS in 70 GP

Seattle is making a strong push in the final weeks of the season. The Kraken are 4-3-0 since the trade deadline, including that 4-1 win in Philadelphia last Saturday. But they could come crashing down to Earth soon enough.

After splitting the back-to-back in Chicago and Minnesota, Seattle’s next six games are against Edmonton (twice), Dallas (twice), Calgary, and Vancouver. The Kraken get a reprieve with a game in San Jose before a stretch against the Kings, Utah, Vegas, Blues, and Los Angeles again to end the season.

The Kraken’s remaining schedule almost makes the Flyers’ slate look like a cakewalk. Maybe Seattle can keep these good vibes rolling to play spoiler in the next few weeks, but I’d be surprised if they don’t end up with a top-five pick.

Anaheim Ducks – 66 PTS in 68 GP

The Ducks are two points ahead of the Flyers in the standings right now, but it may not stay that way. Anaheim has one of the hardest remaining schedules in the league and only has four wins in its last 13 games.

But the Ducks did push the Stars to overtime in Dallas on Tuesday and could have a few more unexpected points up their sleeve. They’re a young team that could stay afloat just above the Flyers in the standings.

Boston Bruins – 69 PTS in 69 GP

The Bruins are already five points ahead of the Flyers and have an even easier schedule in their final 13 games. This is the bar for the Flyers at ninth overall and it would take a hell of a final month to get there.

Every other team in the NHL has a point percentage above .500. I just don’t see the Flyers reaching that given their current play.

Projecting the Flyers’ finish

So with all of that said, let’s take a look at where the Flyers currently stand.

The Sharks and Blackhawks have all but secured the bottom two spots in the standings.

Then it gets interesting.

The Predators and Sabres then have a few points of cushion on three and four but also have a few more games remaining than those teams ahead of them.

The Kraken, Flyers, Penguins, and Ducks are all vying for that fifth spot or better. So the worst-case scenario realistically is eighth for the Flyers.

That’s not a horrible spot to be given the top of this draft class.

There seems to solid tier or two at the top before dropping off, including some top-end centers for the Flyers. James Hagens, Michael Misa, and Anton Frondell are in the top five with Caleb Desnoyers rounding out the top 10. Add in a defenseman like Matthew Schaefer at the top of the class and a few skilled wingers, and the Flyers should have one of their top choices available at their first pick.