Tracking Bears' path to No. 10 through the changing draft scene

The road to a Bears pick at No. 10 overall in this NFL draft is going to be shaped by the stops along the way.

It's a case of who gets off at what exit along this interstate that will determine the pick by the Bears because they're not in a commanding position with truly elite players available at 10 unless someone slips through the cracks.

At this point only the first three players appear to be sure things with Cameron Ward, Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter all expected to be gone. At this point, with 1,304 mock drafts surveyed by NFL Mock Draft Data Base, all three are named to be gone by the fourth pick in the vast majority of mocks. It's 95% first for Ward, 81% second for Hunter and 73% third for Carter

After this it gets more murky. The first real drop in certainty occurs at No. 9 and the total fog rolls in at, you guessed it, No 10 where the Bears' selection of Texas tackle Kelvin Banks is a whopping 11% certainty for mock drafts.

The percentages might be better to win Lotto than to make a call on Banks to Chicago, but no one else has a percentage as high.

Here's how that road to No. 10 looks with the draft only five days away.

4. Patriots: T Will Campbell, LSU

The mock percentage is high at 68% but the more decisive factor here was Daniel Jeremiah of NFL media saying in his media conference call this week that various league sources have let it be known Campbell is well liked in New England. It is a Patriots need, too.

5. Jaguars: RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

If the Bears entertain thoughts of trading up, it may take going to No. 4 because the rumble building in Jacksonville is about the Jaguars making a "statement" pick. Teams don't make statements by picking defensive tackle Mason Graham, who has been projected to go at this pick now for months.

As John Shipley of Jacksonville Jaguars On SI wrote Saturday, the smoke about the Jaguars and Jeanty "does not appear to be going anywhere."

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler believes Jeanty to be a "sleeper" pick for the Jaguars.

"The question now is whether the Jaguars would accept the loss of value that comes with taking a running back at No. 5, or if Jeanty's elite skill set makes it an easier pill to swallow," Fowler wrote.

The NFL Mock Draft Data Base consensus still says Raiders with Jeanty at No. 6 but maybe they haven't caught up to the new way of thinking. Dane Brugler of The Athletic is about as elite as it gets for NFL draft analysts and his seven-round mock last week had Jeanty going to the Jaguars at No. 5.

6. Raiders: T Armand Membou, Missouri

Las Vegas needs offensive line help in the worst way and with Jeanty gone the only other spot they'd probably consider here is wide receiver, but taking one here is a bit of a reach.

Protecting Geno Smith is the goal and it's always possible to come back in a later round for a back this year.

"Carroll likes running the ball, but he likes to build his offensive line first. And with a lot of talented offensive linemen in this draft, the Raiders can take one of the best offensive linemen at number six," writes Michael Canelo of Las Vegas Raiders On SI.

Canelo points out Geoff Schwartz of Fox Sports has Membou going to the Raiders, using the same logic that ESPN's Mina Kimes did early last week. Basically, Jeanty isn't running anywhere until they build a line.

"I will die on this hill," Schwartz wrote. "What good is drafting Ashton Jeanty if your offensive line cannot block for him? Unless the Raiders are in love with their right tackle options, it makes too much sense to draft Membou and grab a second-round running back."

7. Jets: DT Mason Graham, Michigan

Membou would fit there and has been the mock favorite, but if the Raiders take him then it means Graham fell two spots past where he had been projected at for a few months.

"The star defensive lineman has the ability to be the centerpiece of a defensive front in the NFL. Pairing him alongside Quinnen Williams would give the Jets one of the best run stopping duos in the league," wrote Zach Pressnell or New York Jets On SI.

Pressnell cites a comment in agreement made by Newsweek's Bryce Lazenby, calling Graham "a perfect fit," for the Jets.

They have visited with him and had dinner with him. as they prepared for all eventualities.

8. Panthers: Edge Jalon Walker, Georgia

It's here where the crystal ball gets very cloudy because there are rumblings the Panthers want to trade out of this spot even if they could use edge rusher Jalon Walker from Georgia.

"Two teams that continue to come up as trade-back candidates are the Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings,” said ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller. “The Panthers have nine total selections, but could be tempted to trade back for more Day 2 picks, which they would use on the defensive line and at wide receiver. And Minnesota has the fewest picks this year with four, so it could be looking for more draft capital.”

The Vikings don't pick until No. 24 so the Bears wouldn't be concerned with that unless it affected one of their Day 2 picks.

But a trade out by the Panthers, up or back, might hurt the Bears if Jeanty did fall. Then again, it might be the Bears trading up to get him in that case.

Either way, it's hard to believe the Panthers wouldn't want to pick Walker when he fits not only their need but their scheme.

"Jalon's a good player," GM Dan Morgan said via The Athletic. "He's an outside linebacker for us that I feel like can do a lot in our defense."

That's about as definitive as it gets in these murky waters.

9. Saints: QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado

The injury to Derek Carr changes everything. It is possible the Saints would want to trade back and take a stab at Jaxson Dart, but this is like having a quarterback fall into your lap. As Mel Kiper said, this Saints-Sanders pairing is "a perfect fit."

If they decided to wait on the QB, they could take the player the Bears might be looking at, tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., because their offensive line has pretty much disintegrated along with the rest of their team.

Taking Warren if possible but kind of wasteful considering their more basic needs like offensive line and edge rusher.

10. Bears: ?????

The 11% certainty about Banks says the mock drafts simply haven't caught up with reality. The Bears can help themselves the most by ensuring they have a tackle of high quality available like Banks should Braxton Jones need more time yet to get over the broken ankle, or if Kiran Amegadjie doesn't work out. They'd have three good cracks at having a tackle of quality and not one.

Picking Warren would be silly use of the 10th pick for a position that teams almost never take this high. Even Brock Bowers didn't go as high as 10, and if getting a good tight end was critical then trading back could net them someone as good as Warren in Colston Loveland with a pick added for trade compensation.