Vegas Golden Knights’ dream, nightmare scenarios for 2025 NHL Playoffs

   

The Vegas Golden Knights have controlled the Pacific Division for most of the season. Call it bad injury luck for the Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings, but all Vegas cares about is their home-ice advantage through the playoffs’ first two rounds. The Kings made the race interesting towards the end, but the Golden Knights clinched their first seed for the Stanley Cup Playoffs by earning points in six consecutive games to close out the regular season. Vegas feels confident in their defensive depth and Adin Hill in the net, but do they have enough to make another run?

Vegas didn’t have the room to make many moves at the trade deadline, with their only one being the re-acquisition of Reilly Smith from the New York Rangers. Smith was integral to the Golden Knights’ growth and capped his first stint with the organization by winning the Stanley Cup in 2023. Smith hasn’t been able to find the same success since leaving Vegas, but the team hoped he’d rediscover his game by reuniting with long-time linemate William Karlsson. Karlsson was injured for the first part of Smith’s return, but the trade deadline acquisition has three goals and five assists over the past ten games. Karlsson also has seven points over that span.

It won’t be an easy road for the Golden Knights. They’ll face the Minnesota Wild in the first round, who struggled through the season’s middle portion but caught fire in April to solidify their playoff spot. Vegas will be the better team, but Minnesota will test them before they have to face the Oilers or Kings in the second round. It won’t get any easier against whoever escapes from the Central Division gauntlet on the other side of the Western Conference bracket.

Adin Hill finding 2023 form would be a dream scenario

It’s no slight to Hill that the Golden Knights would love for him to find his 2023 form. That dream scenario isn’t saying that he has been bad since winning Vegas their first Stanley Cup, as he has been one of the best goaltenders in the league. However, he was lights out in the 16 games he played during that playoff run. Hill’s Stanley Cup victory elevated him to the top of the league’s goalies list, and he is still reaping the rewards.

There’s an argument to make that Hill wouldn’t get a spot on Team Canada at the 4-Nations Face-Off if he didn’t have that cup in his trophy case. Some might even argue that he deserved the Conn Smythe Trophy more than Jonathan Marchessault that year. Hill had a stellar 11-4-0 record, owning a 2.17 goals-against average and a .932 save percentage.

Although his numbers haven’t stayed at that level in the past two regular seasons, he has been above average. Ironically, Hill replicated those numbers in the 2024 playoffs, albeit in a much smaller sample size. Logan Thompson earned the starting nod for the Golden Knights last playoffs, but Bruce Cassidy decided to go with Hill after Game 4. He started the final three games, and even though he lost two of those three games, he recorded a 1.70 goals-against average and a .931 save percentage.

There’s no way of predicting what would have happened if the Golden Knights had defeated the Dallas Stars in that deciding Game 7. However, there’s no way to rule out Hill not putting the team on his back and leading them on another run. If Hill finds his 2023 level, the Western Conference should be very afraid of the Golden Knights.

Continued injury concerns are a nightmare scenario for the Golden Knights

It hasn’t been all smooth sailing for the Golden Knights this season. One of their most significant obstacles was the number of injuries they had to battle. It started at the 4-Nations Face-Off when Shea Theodore went down, but continued when the NHL returned to action. Tomas Hertl has also been out for a while with an injury but is working his way back into practice. Lastly, important defender Alex Pietrangelo has been missing games after also having to withdraw from his spot on Team Canada.

Injuries are always an issue in the NHL Playoffs, among the most physically grueling in all sports. No team leaves a hockey postseason with everyone at 100%, but the goal is to enter with your team somewhat close to that. The Golden Knights might be one of the most banged-up teams to make the playoffs this season, and their ability to grind out the next two months will be something to watch.