Entering the 2024 NHL offseason, the Washington Capitals are walking a very tight rope between rebuilding and competing as they try to make the most of Alex Ovechkin’s final years.
The team has tried to integrate younger players to stick to that plan but need more help, on offense and defense, to take another step after a surprise appearance in the Stanley Cup Playoffs in a retooling season. Pending RFA right-wing Arthur Kaliyev has requested a trade from the Los Angeles Kings and Washington needs to pounce. Here are five reasons why:
Untapped Potential
The 22-year-old has already appeared in 188 career NHL games but has not averaged 15 minutes in any of his four career seasons, including just 11:48 per game this past campaign (11th among Los Angeles forwards), 1:28 of which came on the man advantage (ninth).
However, Kaliyev scored 14 and 13 goals (in just 56 games) over the previous two seasons. He already has 35 career markers despite the limited ice time he has gotten.
Kaliyev spent most of his time this past year playing with either Alex Laferriere and Pierre-Luc Dubois (129.8 minutes) or Trevor Moore and Pierre-Luc Dubois (122) at five-on-five.
Low Cost
There has been talk about Kaliyev getting dealt since the trade deadline and the fact that the Kings have not used him as affectively as they should puts them in a spot where the return is expected to be limited. Kaliyev did not appear in any of Los Angeles’ five postseason games this spring and played in just two of the six in 2023. The fact that everyone sees where this marriage is headed should also bring his trade value down.
The Capitals could get away with giving up only a third-round pick or lower since Kaliyev was a regular healthy scratch in 2023-24, when he appeared in only 51 games.
Kaliyev should also not cost a ton to re-sign as the Kings demonstrated that they do not trust him this past season, as his next projected contract is expected to carry a $1.795 million cap hit for two years, according to Evolving Hockey, but that could end up being even lower.
“All He Does Is Score”
It was just five years ago (entering his draft) that numerous scouting reports described Kaliyev as “The only objectively great part of a team going through some lean times;” “He’s a shooting machine, a scoring machine. The puck comes off his stick extraordinarily fast. It gets on goalies quickly. He finds space. He has a shooter’s mindset, a scorer’s mindset. He doesn’t just love to score. He competes to score;” and “I’ve compared him to Alexander Ovechkin – Ovechkin of the OHL when we’re on the power play. You can pass that guy the puck anywhere, it could be behind him or in front of him, and I’d say 75 percent of the time it’s going to go into the back of the net.”
It is no secret that Washington needs help offensively after finishing last season 28th in the NHL with a 2.63 goals-per-game average and 29th with 143 five-on-five goals. Kaliyev had a .107 shooting percentage in 2022-23.
Over his three OHL seasons from 2017-2019, he notched 31- (in 68 games), 44- (57), and 51-goal (67) campaigns.
Size
In addition to his prolific scoring ability, Kaliyev has a great frame at 6’2”, 210 pounds and will only get stronger as he is just entering his prime.
Despite his size, Kaliyev averaged only 3.28 hits-per-60 (10th among Los Angeles forwards) this past season and 3.67 (eighth) the one prior. While his biggest asset is his goal scoring ability, and the Capitals should embrace that, they could also unlock a physical element to his game that Los Angeles has yet to find.
Having a big, physical goal-scorer in Washington’s top-six forward group would give them some even more grit, an element critical to winning as seen after the Florida Panthers acquiring Matthew Tkachuk and Niko Mikkola in recent seasons and having those moves pay off big time. While Kaliyev will most likely not raise to Tkachuk’s level, the style could turn out to be similar and every contribution helps.
Solid Possession Metrics
Over his three full seasons at five-on-five, Kaliyev has earned Corsi-for percentages of .5842, .5308, and .5775; expected goals-for percentages of .571, .5118, and .597; and scoring chances-for percentages of .5673, .5268, and .5671, all very good and consistent records. Among players to skate at least 200 minutes over this past regular season, Kaliyev finished 29th league-wide in Corsi, 15th in expected goals, and 56th in scoring chances.
All of those stats for the 2023-24 season best those values his team as a whole posted and is way higher than Washington’s totals.
Washington needs to be very serious about Kaliyev as Los Angeles is making a big mistake letting him walk, let alone not giving him consistent top-six ice-time. The price should be relatively inexpensive and Kaliyev could give the Capitals the boost they need offensively with some more opportunity than he has gotten, and the team needs to jump on it. Rather than giving up premiums for forward help, Washington needs to make more moves with an eye towards the future in addition to getting immediate help and such an acquisition would do both.
In addition to a trade, the team could tender an offersheet to Kaliyev but would most likely have to overpay in salary to get Los Angeles to let walk, which may not be worth it.
Washington has traded talent such as Chandler Stephenson and Jonas Siegenthaler get anway after both could not crack the lineup consistently but have flourished elsewhere. Let’s see them get on the right side of such deals.
