What are the right conditions for John Tavares to remain a Maple Leaf?

As we crawl toward the NHL draft and free agency (the league insists on dragging out the playoffs to a painful degree), we are continuing to gear up for the Maple Leafs’ offseason.

We’ve spent a lot of time talking about Mitch Marner thus far, and rightfully so — he led the team in scoring this season and is set to sign likely the biggest contract in NHL free agency history. It will be a significant shift if Marner does leave Toronto.

That said, there is still other business to tend to. Today, we turn our attention to the Leafs‘ other high-profile free agent, John Tavares.

Brad Treliving’s comments on the Leafs’ DNA

We should first discuss a talking point that’s made the rounds since the end of the Leafs‘ 2024-25 season regarding Brad Treliving’s “DNA change” comments.

First off, it’s annoying how these platitudes catch on like wildfire. Just like “snot” before it, “we can and we will,” and “pugnacity, testosterone, truculence, and belligerence,” they’re overdone and almost always precede unfortunate events in Toronto.

There’s no denying there are some mental hurdles the team needs to overcome as a collective, and there likely are acquisitions that can help them in this regard. But the goal of this offseason can’t only be a “DNA change,” which can mean basically anything as long as the organization makes changes. 

Ultimately, this is about the management group making sound decisions by acquiring good players and moving out under-performing ones. They can change their “DNA” — and if they lose Marner, who plays so much in every situation, they will have changed it, no matter what — but they need to get better, period. 

We’ve talked about their substandard puck possession numbers — 29th in team Corsi, 26th in team Fenwick, and 23rd in expected goals. They were also first in the league in one-goal wins. While it’s positive that they can close out games and defend, there is reason for caution, too. The New York Rangers were first in the category the season before, then missed the playoffs this past season (although some of it was due to GM Chris Drury ripping the room apart). In the two prior seasons, Boston was the best in the league at one-goal wins, showing it could be repeatable, but the Bruins also lost in the first round both of those years and have been in steady decline as an organization since then.

The main reason the Bruins finished first in one-goal games in back-to-back years is the same reason the Leafs did in 2024-25: goaltending. The Leafs finished second in the league in five-on-five save percentage and fourth in all situations save percentage this past season. The positive is that the Leafs possess two solid goalies, but it isn’t exactly an established, elite tandem they can fully bank on. It’s reasonable to assume the goaltending will be good, but top five year-over-year is a tall task. Frankly, the Leafs shouldn’t have to rely on their goalies to be so good, but if they spend the majority of the game in their own zone again — and are without an elite point producer from last season — that’s exactly what they will be doing.

For me, the DNA change, so to speak, is really just a slogan for what every offseason should be about: identifying the weak points and strengthening them. In reality, though, any over-fixation on the team’s DNA vis-à-vis the critical playoff moments would be something of a copout for an organization that really needs to improve its game. This shouldn’t be one of the worst territorial teams in the league.

When the Panthers came out in Game 7 (played in Toronto) with a ridiculous 25-0 shot attempt advantage to begin the game (it still feels ridiculous to write those numbers), it wasn’t really due to the Leafs’ DNA; it was how the Leafs played for most of the season coming home to roost. Against elite teams, it is not going to fly. For the Leafs, it’s really about driving play better, and specific to how Craig Berube wants the team to play, it’s about becoming a much better team on the forecheck and cycle so they can hem teams in their end rather than the rope-a-dope act we often saw as the season wore on. 

Which brings us to John Tavares.

The pros and cons of Tavares’ game 

First, some positives.

Tavares is coming off a monster season at age 34, scoring 38 goals, which tied the second-highest mark of his career and is the most goals scored by any unrestricted free agent this summer. By my count, only four centers in the entire league scored more goals than Tavares last season.

Part of that, it should be noted, is due to shooting a career-high 19%. Among forwards who played at least 40 games last season, the 19% mark is tied with Corey Perry for 23rd; it’s not an impossibly high percentage, but Tavares’ previous career high is 17.3 and his career average is 13.2. The likelihood Tavares replicates it in 2025-26 is probably slim to none.

Tavares is also one of the best faceoff men in the league and can still competently play center, which is hard to find in this league. Even if he is not challenging for 40 goals, he’s still clearly a productive player and a weapon on the power play. As this article from Travis Yost notes, power play success is as critical as ever to qualifying for the playoffs, and the Leafs may already be preparing for life without an elite power play producer in Mitch Marner. 

Tavares is a true pro and clearly loves the Leafs, choosing to come to Toronto and making no bones about wanting to stay, unlike another hometown player set to hit free agency. That doesn’t mean the Leafs should open their wallet and pay him whatever he wants, but it does mean something.

There are some factors to consider on the flip side, too.

While Tavares did have his best five-on-five goal differential this season (55-36 or 60.44% of the goals), he also posted the worst possession numbers of his career (45.6 percent). Tavares played nearly 700 five-on-five minutes with William Nylander and didn’t play even 300 minutes with any other forward on the team (the next highest was Max Pacioretty). A lot of the line’s offense was generated by Nylander blowing the zone or Nylander’s solo efforts to gain the zone and dominate the puck. 

In the playoffs, the possession numbers were worse. When Tavares was on the ice, the Leafs owned just 40.97% of the shot attempts. While it’s fair to argue that most Leafs experienced down seasons in terms of possession this season under Berube and his new system — which is an issue in and of itself — it’s worth noting that in the playoffs, Tavares has been above 50 percent in just one of his six playoff series in Toronto (I’m not counting the Montreal series for obvious reasons).

The one time Tavares was above water in the possession numbers? His second year with the team when the Leafs lost to Columbus in a five-game series. In every other playoff, Tavares has been outplayed territorially, and he has only won his five-on-five minutes once as a Leaf — last spring against Boston, by a count of 3-2. Over his Leafs career, Tavares has 31 points in 50 playoff games and is -15. It’s a six-year sample, and he’s turning 35 in September. Is it really going to get better at this point?

This isn’t meant to fully rag on Tavares. He’s a good player, and if he gets a scoring opportunity, he’s likely to cash it. He owns a hard, heavy shot that he can still lean into like few players in the league can, and he’ll beat goalies clean. When he has the puck down low in the offensive zone, he is strong, he can protect it, and he can make plays. But he doesn’t have the speed to consistently forecheck well or dictate play through the middle of the ice. In every playoff series, he’s essentially exposed in the 2C matchup in the run of play, but he’s talented enough to come up with some big moments — which he has done in his Toronto tenure — and there is real value in that.

But at what cost, and what’s his role?

The conditions of a Tavares return

If the Leafs sign Tavares, is he destined to be their 2C again?

Treliving has noted multiple times that he kept hearing 2C was a need when Tavares scored 38 goals and 74 points. Ahead of the trade deadline, Treliving all but admitted that the odds he could acquire someone better than Tavares are slim. 

Once again, it’s a distinct possibility that Tavares at 2C plays out, and if so, what’s really going to change? Is the second line really going to improve at this point as Tavares continues to age? In every playoff, he has slowed down and struggled territorially.

Perhaps the Leafs find a left winger who clicks with Tavares-Nylander to elevate the line; the line was much better at controlling play with Tyler Bertuzzi handling the dirty work for them, and they posted similarly strong results with Bobby McMann:

Tavares-Nylander clearly perform well with a forechecking, power forward LW who goes to the net and takes care of the grunt work. They put together some strong stretches with Pacioretty as well, but Pacioretty is not consistently reliable at this point, given his age/injury history.

The Leafs could do enough on the left side of the line to make it a solid regular-season line — especially with Nylander in his prime — but who will be the left winger? Is it Bobby McMann, who struggled in the playoffs but just played his first true full NHL season (even if he’s already 28)? Short of boosting them with an All-Star calibre player who drastically changes the unit’s outlook, if Tavares-Nylander are together again on L2, there is very little they could do during the regular season to convince me that this is an effective enough playoff duo.

In an ideal world, as we alluded to above, Tavares would be pushed down the lineup. Treliving would find a different 2C who can drive play and provide a strong defensive presence alongside Nylander, while giving Tavares easier matchups — potentially with McMann on a third line that would still represent a scoring line but one with more quality than what the Leafs have generally run out in their bottom six.

It sounds good in theory, and Tavares would work just fine in that role, but there are domino effects to consider.

If the Leafs run a Tavares-led third line and Nylander continues to anchor the second line, the Leafs’ top line remains a heavy matchup unit responsible for every tough assignment. Matthews makes the big bucks, and that’s part of the responsibility — it’s no real issue, generally speaking — but it means Max Domi can’t play on Matthews’ line. Domi also can’t play on the second line with Nylander; we’ve seen more than enough over the past two seasons to suggest the duo is too weak defensively for it to work on a game-to-game basis. Therefore, it leaves Domi slotted on the third line alongside Tavares; otherwise, the Leafs will face real problems up the lineup.

This means the Leafs will enter the draft and free agency looking for a top-line winger (assuming Marner leaves) and a second-line center. Those are two massive holes they have the cap space to fill, but they don’t have the assets to trade, and the UFA market is weak. 

That’s why Tavares’ number is so important. This isn’t a get-it-done contract; it’s a this-has-to-make-sense contract. He’s a productive player who is otherwise limited — not particularly physical, strong defensively, fast, or able to drive play. But his production matters, especially on the power play. 

Pierre LeBrun discussed the Tavares situation this week:

The Leafs and John Tavares’ camp continue to talk and touched base again this week. There remains mutual interest in getting something done, but finding that sweet spot on a fair deal isn’t quite there yet. The idea that Tavares might sign for a bargain $5 million AAV seems like a stretch to me. It’s going to have to be above that to get it done given the year he just had, although term is part of the equation as well.

Keeping Tavares in the mix is fine and all, but it’s really going to come down to the dollars. Tavares wasn’t a particularly good playoff 2C through his ages 28-34 seasons; what are the odds it improves at this point? Brock Nelson recently signed a three-year, $7.5 million AAV contract, and if Tavares sees Nelson’s contract and decides he wants to be in the same territory as his former teammate — which is fair, as Tavares has amassed a better career — then all the power to him. For the Leafs, the contract has to reflect a player they’re happy slotting at 3C or moving up and down the wing throughout the top nine while reserving ample space to pay up for more quality elsewhere in the lineup. 

In my view, Tavares’ return has to be fully on the Leafs’ terms. He doesn’t exactly play with the speed or physicality I’d want the team to integrate more of. But if it’s an efficient contract that slots well below market value, the team can’t go wrong with that in a cap world. And that’s the only way this works for the Leafs if their goal is a deep playoff run.