The NFC South could be decided with an Atlanta Falcons victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The NFC South is different. It always has been, and it always will be. For the first several years this division was in existence, there was no repeat champion. The Atlanta Falcons, the Carolina Panthers, the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers not only have division banners from the last decade, but have been to the Super Bowl one time apiece since 2009. This division is so competitive.
To help me better explain why that is ahead of the Falcons' Week 8 road date with the Buccaneers, I brought on FanSided Content Director Josh Hill who covers the Buccaneers for The Pewter Plank. Hill and I have known each for nearly a decade now and used to work together on the Dot Com team for years in the old Chicago office. While I moved back to Atlanta, Hill keeps the good vibes going there.
It was a fascinating conversation with a FanSided lifer like myself who knows all the ins and outs of one of the most slept on divisions in the NFL. As Hill put it bluntly, there is nothing glamorous about the games these four rival teams play annually. The best team almost always loses a divisional game, while the worst one usually ends up stealing one from a bitter division rival to help spoil their season.
This is a huge one for the Falcons and Buccaneers, so I will unpack of our rivalry game conversation.
Atlanta Falcons had a good week to have a bad game for division reasons
While appearing on the latest episode of The Blogging Dirty Podcast, Hill and I tended to agree that for as ugly as Atlanta's loss was to Seattle and for how brutal of a situation it was for Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore, we are thankful to be fans of what looks to be the two contending teams in the NFC South. Carolina and New Orleans have gone a combined 3-11 through the first seven weeks of the season.
Even though Atlanta's awful home loss to Seattle was by a wider margin than Tampa Bay's Monday Night Football defeat at the hands of Baltimore, the Falcons did come out of their game in a far better spot from an injury perspective. Tampa Bay may have lost to a fellow playoff contender, but will be without Mike Evans for at least a month now and Chris Godwin looks to have been lost for the season.
Tampa Bay has the tougher next stretch of games with dates against Kansas City and San Francisco after this, but the Buccaneers do hold key tiebreakers against teams like Detroit, Philadelphia and Washington. Atlanta can technically afford a road loss to Tampa Bay, as long as the Falcons hold serve vs. Dallas at home next weekend and complete the season sweep of New Orleans on the road.
It was a rough week for Atlanta and Tampa Bay, but thank goodness that they play in the NFC South.
Will Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the NFC playoffs?
Hill and I both blew the whistle, as in the positive train whistle, that yes, the Falcons and Buccaneers will both make the NFC Playoffs at season's end. I had Atlanta in as a division winner and Tampa Bay in as a wild card team to start the year. That has not changed for me. Hill seems to be more bullish on the Falcons long-term than the Buccaneers because of their defense does think both will make it in.
The big key working in Atlanta and Tampa Bay's favor to get in is the NFC North has to start play games against itself. Prior to Week 7, the NFC North had played a combined one game in divisional play through the first six weeks. Conversely, Atlanta already played each of its division rivals once. Not only do these games beat you up in the standings, but like Hill said, they beat you up physically.
With Washington and Seattle looking pretty interesting in the NFC East and West, as well as Atlanta and Philadelphia owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over Philadelphia, it really comes down to if the NFC North is really going to send four teams into the playoffs. Neither Hill or I trust Chicago. While Detroit looks legit, Minnesota continues to prove us wrong and we must see more out of Green Bay.
The NFC South feels like a division that is going to get two of its teams into the postseason this year.
What a win means for both of these NFC South teams in this rivalry game
The fact this game was not flexed into the 4:00 p.m. ET window came as a surprise to us. It may not feature the biggest of football brands, but a division could be on the line. For Atlanta, a win means the Falcons will improve to 5-3 overall, 5-1 over NFC opponents and most importantly, 4-0 in the division with a season sweep over their biggest threat in it. Atlanta would own the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.
This basically means that if Atlanta finishes above .500, they are in a really good spot to win its first division crown since the Super Bowl year of 2016. Obviously, you would want more than nine wins on the season, but keep in mind that this is a team that went 7-10 each of the last three seasons under Arthur Smith. Not since 2017 have the Falcons even had a winning season, so let's be patient, folks.
As for Tampa Bay, a win gets the Buccaneers not only back in the NFC South race, but puts them in the driver's seat to win it for the time being. They would be a game ahead of the Falcons in the NFC South by getting to 5-3 on the season. Keep in mind that the loser of this game will be staring 4-4 in the face. Atlanta's 4-4 would be bad, but Tampa Bay's would be so much worse at 1-2 in the division.
Whoever wins this game will resemble a likely playoff team with a 5-3 record heading into November.
What the Atlanta Falcons need to do to sweep the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winning on the road is always challenging, especially against a rival team. However, the plan of attack for the Falcons is as obvious as what Hill told me in our conversation. Atlanta needs to take advantage of the Buccaneers' two star receivers being out. Baker Mayfield is going to try and make plays regardless, but not having Mike Evans or Chris Godwin to throw the ball to will be rather difficult.
The biggest thing Atlanta needs to do defensively is get a locked-in game from its secondary. For the first time since they came together to form a dynamic unit, the safety tandem of Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons let Dirty Bird Nation down. It may have been the physical specimen of D.K. Metcalf, the elusiveness of Tyler Lockett or the route-running of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but they got worked!
As for what the offense needs to do, Kirk Cousins needs to play with more poise and confidence than he demonstrated vs. Seattle. Leaning on the running game will certainly help. What Cousins has to remember is he threw for a franchise-record 509 yards vs. this same Tampa Bay defense. It could be another barn burner on our hands, but the more disciplined team defensively is going to win this one.
The thought of getting to 4-0 in the division should be a top priority for Raheem Morris and his team.
