The summer of 2024 has been an interesting one for John Tavares. He is now eligible to sign a contract extension with the Maple Leafs but as of writing this there has been little information on how close that is to happening. The summer has also also seen John Tavares relinquish the Maple Leafs captaincy to Auston Matthews, certainly reducing his stature in the organization and in the final year of his contract, the Leafs have already taken a step for planning on a future without Tavares or at the very least one where they rely on him a lot less.
Not surprisingly, the last couple years of John Tavares’ $11M AAV contract has brought more heat to him in Toronto. At the time of the signing it was obvious that these years would be unfortunate but the optimistic thinking was that the Leafs would have one or more Stanley Cups that would justify the overpayment for Tavares in the final years of his deal. The fact that the Leafs never lived up to their ambitious goal means that Tavares is being viewed as a 65-point second line centre who should be producing almost double that to live up to his deal. I’m not sure how much blame should be directed towards John Tavares over this situation, but nevertheless, the 2024-25 season should have Tavares arriving to camp with a lot to prove.
The thing with John Tavares is that he was very much the same player in 2023-24 that he was in 2022-23 minus the issue that plagued most of the Leafs last season, and that was the absence of power play points. Tavares went from 18 powerplay goals to 9, 21 powerplay assists to 11 and that is how John has fallen below the point per game player mark in Toronto that may not completely eliminate the criticisms of him, but reduce them.
There is also some issue with how much Tavares can still be trusted as a second line centre. The Tavares line worked last season largely because of William Nylander’s ability to drive the play, but the combination of Tavares and Nylander also left a lot to be desired in the defensive zone. Without a strong third line centre option the Leafs had to trust Tavares in a lot of situations that I’m sure they would have preferred to still have someone like Ryan O’Reilly in. The 2024-25 season looks like it will have a similar pitfall and Tavares might take some criticism that would be better directed that the builders of the team that have failed to realize the help required up the middle.
The expectation- Tavares is a centre
With so many other question marks around the Leafs lineup and no flexibility when it comes to the salary cap situation in 2024-25, John Tavares will need to complete his contract as a centre even if declining ability to drive play at 5v5 and his defensive accountability have been in decline. Players like Max Domi or William Nylander come with greater defensive zone issues if they are tried at centre and Tavares at least brings familiarity. While Nylander might be the best option to drive the play, he is a gamble compared to the safety of Tavares doing what is required in his role.
Kyle Dubas spoke a couple of seasons ago about putting John Tavares in positions where he can be most successful and that mindset needs to continue. A strong two-way player like Calle Jarnkrok might work well with Tavares as would continuing to play Tavares with William Nylander who can control the movement of the puck. Allowing John Tavares to be the low offensive zone net presence on his line is setting him up for success and with Auston Matthews showing the ability to thrive with Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi last season, it might be possible to move Marner to the Tavares line as well giving him a strong defensive zone support and playmaker to address the shortcomings experienced in 2023-24. In 2022-23 when Marner was Tavares’ most frequent linemate that duo achieved strong results while better supporting Tavares’ shortcomings.
The goal- a return to powerplay success
With the Guy Boucher powerplay era now behind the Leafs it seems like an improvement here is inevitable. Addressing Tavares’ drop from 39 points down to 20 when having the advantage would be great, but that 39 point total was also a career best and the Leafs might want to try balance with a decent second powerplay unit rather than putting all their eggs in the top unit basket. Tavares can bring success to the second unit as well if the Leafs decide someone like Matthew Knies might be ready to be a top unit net front presence. Putting Tavares with Domi, Pacioretty, and Robertson looks likes a pretty strong secondary unit if Toronto decides to keep all of those forwards and play them together on the second powerplay and while Tavares might not see his numbers go up with that group, it seems that the Leafs would be on the path to having a group more capable of sustaining pressure throughout the duration of the advantage.
While John Tavares is 34 and some decline is to be expected, it’s also worth noting that 2023-24 was his worst shooting percentage year and some recovery in that statistic is possible as well.
The personal goal for John Tavares in 2024-25 is going to be that he is still an important part of the Leafs roster even as he steps away from his role as part of the team’s core. He will still be the strong, quiet, calming leader to the team, but demonstrating that he is still benefit offensively either by creating his own opportunities or consistently making the best of what is sent his way will be how he makes his case for retiring as a Toronto Maple Leaf a few years down the road.
