Three days into September the Buffalo Sabres and Peyton Krebs have yet to agree to a contract. Krebs remains a restricted free agent, unsigned without much leverage, and a shortage of options. The Sabres tendered a qualifying offer to the 23-year-old in June, maintaining his signing rights.
The breakdown of the situation is simple. Krebs is coming off his three-year, $863,334 per season entry-level deal. His qualifying offer is a one-year, $874,125 contract. The contract would serve essentially as a bridge to Krebs’ next deal, making the upcoming 2024-2025 season a “prove-it” year. Like many restricted free agents do, he can play his way into a longer, more lucrative contract.
Krebs has refused to sign the qualifying offer to this point, clearly miffed by the under $11,000 raise. He’s established himself as an everyday NHLer, which typically vaults you to over a $1 million annual salary.
There are a few major discrepancies between the two sides, including Krebs’ place in the organization, the value of a bottom-six forward, and his trajectory as a young player.
Krebs The Centerpiece
Three professional seasons can change a prospect’s outlook significantly, and Krebs may be an example. The former 17th-overall draft selection was regarded as the top prospect in the Vegas Golden Knights system at the time of his trade to Buffalo. You may forget that he was considered the centerpiece of the return package in the Jack Eichel trade, not Alex Tuch. Things have worked out much differently since. Tuch established himself as a bonafide top-line forward while Krebs struggled to progress in his offensive development.
One of Krebs’ best attributes is considered to be his playmaking, yet his highest single-season assist total in three seasons in Buffalo is 17. Last season, he managed to score only four goals. That kind of production doesn’t warrant a one-way NHL contract, let alone a raise.
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Falling on Sabres Depth Chart
This lack of output has pinned Krebs to the Buffalo’s fourth line. After the Sabres traded for Beck Malenstyn and signed Sam Lafferty and Nicolas Aube-Kubel in free agency, a promotion to the third line seemed in order. However, the Sabres pulled off a trade with the Edmonton Oilers for Ryan McLeod to fill the third center role.
The moves not only bumped Krebs from his presumed role in the lineup but out of the projected opening night lineup completely. It’s hard to earn a new contract as the team’s extra forward, where Krebs is slotted to start the season.
There’s also pressure from younger players with draft ties to the Sabres organization. Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund, and 2024 first-round pick Konsta Helenius are headed to training camp looking to push for an NHL spot at the center position. Isak Rosen and Lukas Rousek saw some time with the Sabres last season as wingers. They will challenge for one of the top 13 forward jobs.
Krebs can easily get lost in the mix with the potential of limited opportunity by the new coaching staff. If there’s one variable in his favor, it’s that newly promoted assistant coach Seth Appert was a big fan of Krebs in AHL Rochester. Perhaps Appert can help revive his career path, should an everyday role become attainable via injury or merit.
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Projecting Krebs
Staring down a projected 76 games as the top injury fill-in via PuckLuck.com’s projections, Krebs should have a chance to make a leap in production in 2024-2025. The model projects him for nine goals and 24 points, which is in line with his career totals. The upside projection is for 33 points, which doesn’t imply more than a bottom-six role.
Part of what’s working against the case for any kind of contract commitment to Krebs is that he hasn’t established himself as a special teams contributor. His powerplay time has been as a second-unit fill-in. Any time he’s been trotted out on the penalty kill, the results have not been encouraging.
Yes, he can develop into new roles as he settles in with the amended coaching staff. However, he has yet to show signs of that being beneficial to the Sabres.
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Next for Krebs Contract Situation?
So, for now, we wait. Krebs has limited options and the Sabres have the upper hand. He can hold out, but that could cost him his NHL job if he’s not in camp and someone else impresses. He can shop himself around to other teams for an offer sheet, but the Sabres can match anything given their abundance of cap space. Also, it’s unlikely another team values Krebs much more than Buffalo.
Krebs and his agent Kevin Epp can also continue trying to negotiate a better deal, but anything agreed to now with any term would help the Sabres buy low. This makes it almost inevitable that Krebs signs his tender and plays on the $874,125 salary. He may not do so until closer to training camp to be sure his options are exhausted. His best bet is settling in with the new coaching staff and earning a bigger contract.
If not, the Sabres can explore trade options with Krebs, although the return would be minimal. At best, Buffalo could find a player in a similar situation to swap him with. At worst, they’d concede on the project and let Krebs try to revitalize his career somewhere else.
