When the Toronto Maple Leafs plucked Matthew Knies out of the second round (57th overall) in the 2021 NHL Draft, his potential was unknown.
He was a big, strong forward who dominated college, much like what we've seen in the past two seasons with him in the NHL. However, now, the 22-year-old and the Maple Leafs meet at a crossroads of what term and price tag they think Knies is worth as a restricted free agent.
After two seasons in the NHL with Toronto, Knies has 44 goals and 50 assists for 94 points in 161 games. He signed his entry-level contract in 2023, joining the Maple Leafs on their playoff run, and winning their first series — eliminating the Tampa Bay Lightning in six games — since 2004.
Knies was an integral part of that series, scoring three assists, including one on John Tavares' series-winning goal in overtime against the Lightning in Game 6. With some players, you fear their playoff production, at times, could go out of kilter.
However, not with Knies.
The 6-foot-3, 227-pound winger, who by the sounds of it wants to get bigger and faster in the offseason, has scored eight goals and six assists in 27 playoff games across three years. It's the sixth-most playoff points among Maple Leafs since Knies joined the club in 2023.
Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving has plenty on his to-do list this summer, including re-signing Tavares and other potential unrestricted free agents. While the Tavares contract might be the most challenging to construct, Knies' deal could be just as difficult to manufacture.
What could Knies' contract look like?
There are two paths this negotiation could go down: a long-term extension, which I'd say both parties would like, or a bridge deal. Signing Knies long-term would put the forward at ease, knowing he's here for the long run, especially after the forward has expressed his desire to remain in Toronto.
"I want to be here. I want to play here. That's all that really matters to me... I think it's the best chance for me to win," Knies said during the team's locker clean-out day.
One enormous topic in negotiations will be Knies' playoff production. I say that because Knies has a 0.52 points-per-game, the 65th-best among players who've skated in 20+ games during the postseason since 2023. He's the second-youngest behind Wyatt Johnston, who sits 51st with a 0.57 points-per-game.
Johnston, the same age as Knies, signed a five-year, $42 million contract with the Dallas Stars in March, with an annual average value of $8.4 million. There are a few reasons why Knies won't get that much, including the fact that Johnston is a center, whilst Knies isn't.
There's also the fact that Johnston's regular-season points-per-game (0.71) is much higher than Knies' (0.58). The caveat: Johnston has 85 more games of NHL experience over Knies.
Don't forget about the lack of tax on Johnston's deal. Maybe Knies' team pushes to get closer to that Johnston's AAV? After all, the forward had a career-year this season, scoring 58 points — 29 goals and 29 assists — in 78 games, and it'd be safe to expect that point total to rise again next year.
"I think Matthew's still just scratching the surface. So we've got to see what fits for us, what fits for them," Treliving said during his end-of-season media availability on Knies and his contract.
"But I see him as a long-term player here. I'm not trying to be elusive. You'd always like to sign them all for the longest and as lowest as you can. He's a hell of a player, and we're working on it."
Twenty-two-year-old Matt Coronato signed a seven-year, $45.5 million contract (a $6.5 million AAV) with the Calgary Flames in early May. Coronato isn't as big as Knies and hasn't produced as much as the Maple Leafs' forward, albeit he's played one and a half seasons of NHL hockey.
Still, though, Knies' playoff production — tied into his ever-growing NHL potential — should put him at a higher number than Coronato, if the contract's term is similar.
If both parties want a long-term deal done, I'd say the right AAV at seven or eight years is around $7.25 million. I'd even do $7.5 million with the cap set to rise over the next few years. At seven years, it'd be a $50.75 million contract. At eight years, it'd be a $58 million deal.
It cushions Knies between Coronato and Johnston in cap hit while giving Toronto more money to work with this summer.
Tavares and Marner's expiring contract allows for the Maple Leafs to do right by Knies. They don't need to penny-pinch, nor do they need to make this negotiation difficult. The forward's potential is evident, especially after the last postseason.
And if the Maple Leafs truly believe in his future, then they should invest appropriately.
