What Should We Expect from J.J. McCarthy This Season?

The Minnesota Vikings have set the stage for J.J. McCarthy to be their starting quarterback this season and have built a supporting cast that any quarterback would love to have. But even with those advantages, the first season starting for a young quarterback can be a bumpy road filled with both promise and disappointment. Even future Hall of Famers paid their dues in climbing a steep learning curve and getting acclimated to a league much different from the college game. And even some of the better performers in their first season as a starter failed to be much more than average when compared to the rest of the NFL starting quarterbacks.

So with all that in mind, what should we expect as J.J. McCarthy prepares to be the starting quarterback for the Vikings this season?

McCarthy is QB1

While the Vikings entertained some options during free agency that may have resulted in competition for the QB1 role, nothing ever materialized or was even very close to materializing, from various reports on discussions the Vikings had with Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, and perhaps a couple others. The Vikings are still looking for a QB2, but at this point there is nobody out there that is likely to challenge McCarthy for the QB1 spot.

What History Tells Us About a Young Quarterback’s First Season as a Starter

Most quarterbacks that start early in their careers are first round draft picks- often top of the first round- and are expected to start as a rookie. There have been several exceptions like Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, but for the most part quarterbacks drafted in the first round started as rookies. But whether as a rookie or later on, young quarterbacks in their first season faced a steep learning curve and often poor circumstances in terms of coaching and supporting cast.

Luckily for J.J. McCarthy, he will avoid some of the pitfalls young quarterbacks face in their first season as a starter as his team made the playoffs last season and is coming off a 14-3 record. He will begin with one of the best supporting casts any quarterback has had since Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar Jackson in 2019. Both of those second-year quarterbacks won the league MVP award in those years, despite having limited starts prior to those seasons (Mahomes has just one start his rookie year and Jackson had seven).

Be that as it may, I thought it would be more appropriate for comparison purposes to look only at quarterbacks in their first full season as a starter (whether rookie year or later) who began in a “good situation” when it comes to supporting cast and coaching.

The chart above includes 27 quarterbacks who were drafted into “good” situations, although that is always a bit subjective. You can quibble about who is included or left out, but a few additions or subtractions are unlikely to change the average numbers much for these quarterbacks in their first full season as the starter.

Also provided are Sam Darnold’s numbers last year for comparison.

If you add in a bit of an era adjustment for quarterbacks in the earlier half of this list, and assume J.J. McCarthy is able to play a 17-game season when it comes to total passing yards, Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and that McCarthy has a better set of receivers than most on this list (or maybe all), that more or less gets you to Darnold’s numbers last season.

And so Darnold’s numbers last season should be the baseline expectation for McCarthy this season, even though he’s effectively a second-year rookie. McCarthy may also enjoy a better offensive line this season compared to Darnold last season, which also helps.

Overall, that baseline is a high expectation for a quarterback who has yet to take a snap in an NFL regular season game, but if McCarthy is as talented as advertised, he should be able to get there. Undoubtedly there will be growing pains during the season as he adjusts to the NFL game and speed, but with good coaching and a good supporting cast from offensive line and receivers to running backs and defense, McCarthy couldn’t ask for a better situation to prove himself.

If McCarthy falls significantly short of Darnold’s numbers, that could signal a longer learning curve for McCarthy and/or a lower ceiling. But so far there hasn’t been anything to indicate that. Instead, it wouldn’t be surprising if McCarthy achieved something in the neighborhood of Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud in his first year as a starter, and maybe even more in terms of total passing yards.