The Colorado Avalanche hoisted their third Stanley Cup in franchise history following the completion of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. It wasn’t just any championship win, either—they were utterly dominant, going 16–4 in the postseason en route to eternal glory. A dynasty seemed to be forming.
Since they lifted the Cup three playoff runs ago, though, things have gone downhill. More concerningly, each postseason outing has been worse than the last. Their first-round loss to a depleted Dallas Stars team led by Colorado’s former superstar marks a devastating new low in the Avalanche’s era of contention. With three consecutive declining seasons and only one series victory in that time frame, what’s next? How can they change this worrying trajectory?
Avalanche Have Suffered Steady Decline Since Winning Cup
Don’t get it twisted: the Avalanche have maintained their dominant regular-season standing over the past three seasons. The playoffs, however, have been a different story. Each run has been worse than the last, with a new low being in the first round against the Stars.
The Avalanche lost to the Seattle Kraken in seven games during the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. It was a stunning upset on the surface, seeing as Colorado won a competitive Central Division with 109 points and the Kraken had the third-worst record in the NHL in 2021–22.
While the Avalanche’s loss was disappointing, the Kraken only trailed their foe by nine points in the standings, and, most notably, both sides had their fair share of injuries. Even then, Colorado had expected and actual goal shares that ranked fourth among all playoff teams that season, according to Evolving-Hockey. Though they lost, three single-goal defeats could seemingly be reversed. There was no reason to panic.
The 2024 Playoffs didn’t have the injury excuse to fall back on. The Avalanche handled the Winnipeg Jets in five games, but they were defeated by the Stars in six. Mind you, that Stars team fell to the Edmonton Oilers in the next round in six, who fell to the Florida Panthers in seven. It would’ve been unreasonable to dismiss Colorado as a contender at this point, but they lost their spot as the team to beat in the Western Conference.
The 2025 first-round matchup with the Stars marks a somewhat humiliating low. Since top-pairing defenseman Miro Heiskanen was hurt on Jan. 28, Dallas had been spiraling—their record was fine, but the eye test wasn’t. Their 46.43% expected goal share at 5-on-5, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, was the fifth-worst in the NHL. Moving the puck up the ice was a battle, and getting hemmed in their zone wasn’t uncommon. But that’s only the start.
Following a six-game losing streak from Games 76 to 81 of the regular season, the Stars played their main lineup in the finale, despite having nothing to play for standings-wise, likely as a way to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately, the bleeding only got worse, with superstar forward Jason Robertson suffering an injury in a blowout loss to the third-worst team in the NHL, the Nashville Predators.
In what would have otherwise been an even series on paper, the Stars were without their two most important players. The defensive core, led by a first pairing of Esa Lindell and Cody Ceci, was poised to be exposed. Indeed, they were (32.30% expected goal share), but the Stars won the series in seven games. In that Game 7, the Stars overcame a 2–0 deficit in the third period courtesy of former Avalanche Mikko Rantanen’s hat trick and an additional assist. Does it get any worse than that?
Entering the playoffs, the Stars were arguably the most vulnerable team in the West. Regardless, they looked quite comfortable against the Avalanche. Though Dallas deserves their flowers, Colorado has a lot to think about. Beating a team without its two best players was the absolute bare minimum, and they failed.
Avalanche Need More From MacKinnon & Makar in the Playoffs
Colorado is built around its two superstars: Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Without elite secondary scoring, the team needs those two to play like superstars in the playoffs to have a chance. However, both of them have seen serious declines once April comes around.
Take a look at their 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes over the past two regular seasons and their last two playoff series, via Natural Stat Trick. The difference is substantial, and gives a decent explanation for why the Avalanche have been struggling.
| 5-on-5 Production | Last 2 Regular Seasons | Last 2 Playoff Series | Percent Decrease |
| MacKinnon’s Points Per 60 Minutes | 2.90 | 1.68 | 42.07% |
| Makar’s Points Per 60 Minutes | 1.78 | 0.89 | 50.00% |
In the regular season, the Avalanche are a two-man team. In the playoffs, they’re a no-man team. Perhaps MacKinnon and Makar can improve their 5-on-5 production, as it’s a somewhat small sample size, but even if they do somehow reach their regular-season totals in the future, will it matter? It begs the question: what’s next?
What’s Next for the Avalanche?
This isn’t exactly what will come next, but it’s what should happen. The Avalanche cannot afford to be passive in the offseason and be content with this result—this season proved they’re closer to a non-contender than a contender. An aggressive summer, prioritizing more star power, would be ideal.
Now, Colorado is in a bit of a salary-cap pickle. They’ve committed a lot of money to their team, to the point where bringing back center Brock Nelson alone could put them dangerously close to the maximum spending limit. So, how do get more stars? Shedding salary.
Players like Charlie Coyle, Ross Colton, and Miles Wood had next to no impact in the series against the Stars, but will make a combined $11.75 million cap hit in 2025–26. Why have zero stars with that money when you can reasonably get two for the same price? By any means possible, the Avalanche should try to get more firepower to provide MacKinnon and Makar with much-needed supplemental scoring.
There are trade restrictions on these players that will make shedding their salary difficult, or perhaps impossible. But the team needs change—you must explore every avenue to make that happen. The series probably doesn’t even go to seven games, with the Avalanche winning it earlier, if they have two stars instead of the three players listed.
Sounding the alarm following what was otherwise a successful regular season seems dramatic. But the Avalanche have been trending downward for three seasons in a row now. The only way they return to a legitimate contention status is with change. If Colorado makes minimal moves in the summer, the only rational expectation is another early-round exit. The window is closing—proactivity should come before it does.
