Where Does Michael Penix Jr. Rank on NFL.com's List of QBs on Rookie Contracts?

Atlanta Falcons second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr quite rightly finds himself ranked by Nick Shook of NFL.com on his rundown of the top 15 signal callers playing on rookie contracts.

Penix showed off arguably the strongest arm in the rookie class in his three-game cameo last year. While still relatively unproven, NFL.com’s Nick Shook ranks him ninth on his list of rookie contract quarterbacks.

“The strengths that made Penix a first-round pick showed when he finally took the field late last season,” wrote Shook on NFL.com. “The win-loss results didn’t prove it, but that didn’t diminish my evaluation of him (given the 72 points given up in Atlanta’s two losses). Given a full offseason to prepare as the unquestioned starter, Penix should be able to help the Falcons in ways Kirk Cousins just couldn't. Now is the time to prove Atlanta right."

Furthermore, we can't really push that hard back against 7 out-of-the 8 passers Shook has opted to rank ahead of Penix Jr. in the 9th spot at this particular juncture.

Only the completely untested first overall pick Cam Ward can we justifiably argue against.being ranked higher than Penix, but marquee draft picks traditionally always move the dial before they even take a snap.

After all, Ward might well be a NFL fairytale so far, but Penix has a three game starting headstart on the Tennessee Titans talented rookie and a much better supporting cast.

Shook surprised himself by listing Bryce Young at No. 4, but he goes in depth on his reasoning, and it won’t take long to find out if Young’s resurgence last year was a sign of things to come or a flash in the pan. 

Those critical three starts under center by Penix have indeed provided a small body of work which points toward considerable upsides for Penix and the Falcons moving forward.

On the flip side, the game tape put together by Penix remains just too limited to push him higher up Shook's listing it would appear.

Shook putting fellow second-year quarterbacks Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears star Caleb Williams,  Drake Maye of the New England Patriots, - surely tells us that more games started holds sway in large part.

Of course that doesn't apply to Ward, and therein lies the rub for the bulk of Shooks top 15, he's often playing a game of banking on untapped potential coming to the fore.

That applies in spades to Young, Maye and even Williams in all honesty, despite the fact that all started more games than Penix - they clearly had their own struggles as they ironed out the creases.

Therefore, Penix has to play a little catch up in 2025, but Shook rightly points out that the path has been cleared for him when Kirk Cousins was demoted and put firmly on the trade block.

Unfortunately Falcons fans, Atlanta won’t be able to take full advantage of Penix’s rookie contract. They’ll have Cousins’s money counting towards the salary cap in three, and probably four, years of Penix’s five-year rookie deal, including $40 million this season. 

How much Penix can benefit from taking the majority of the snaps during training camp cannot be underestimated, and he's already vastly experienced as a college quarterback. 

Even so, some analysts might choose to dismiss the trio of games Penix already started and instead frame 2025 as being his real genuine rookie campaign.

What's absolutely crucial to the overall process, is the fact that general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris have so unflinchingly coupled their wagon to Penix this offseason.

So even if Cousins remains in Atlanta as a very expensive luxury back up, in theory at least, it shouldn't derail the development of Penix during his sophomore season.

Yes indeed, the future is very bright for Penix as the undisputed starter in Atlanta, especially if the rebuilt defensive unit can get the ball back in his left hand more frequently next season.