September is sneaking up fast, and the fantasy hockey projections for next season are out. The Buffalo Sabres forwards regressed in 2022-2023, hoping to rediscover their scoring touch in the upcoming season. Led by their projected top line of Tage Thompson, JJ Peterka, and Alex Tuch, the Sabres should have some fantasy-relevant point outputs in 2024-2025.
Thanks to the in-depth statistical projection model built over at PuckLuck.com, we have standard and upside point projections for the entire NHL. The Sabres’ forward group has plenty of new faces, but with most of them assuming bottom-six roles, fantasy relevance pertains to the familiar faces in Buffalo.
Let’s run through the top projected Sabres scorers in 2024-2025, according to PuckLuck.
1. Alex Tuch
Via Buffalo Hockey Now
Alex Tuch was Buffalo’s leading scoring forward in 2023-2024, with 59 points in 75 games. He projects as the top point producer for the Sabres next season as well, with a boost in output to 69 points in two fewer games. The scoring rate spike is a theme across the board, as the talent outweighed Buffalo’s goal totals last season.
PuckLuck’s projection model weighs recent rate stats, sample sizes, player comparisons, aging curves, and teammate effects for each statistical category. Projected ice time and roles are applied, resulting in a realistic statistical output for the upcoming season. Tuch has a clear path to top forward minutes on the team, with first-line, first-powerplay, and secondary shorthanded ice time available to him.
His projected linemates, Thompson and Peterka, help drive a strong offensive environment. The trio combined for 13 goals and 27 points over the last 12 games of the season they spent together. Stretching that across an entire season is a big reason for the projected scoring spike for Tuch next season.
Being a winger, Tuch’s position value is higher than centers in most fantasy formats. That means Tuch should be ranked and drafted well ahead of Thompson on most fantasy platforms. For this reason, he’s easily the most valuable Sabres forward in fantasy leagues.
2. Tage Thompson
Via Buffalo Hockey Now
Tage Thompson suffered a 38-point dropoff from his impressive 94-point season in 2022-2023. Injuries played a part in the regression, as did system and teammate effects. He should bounce back next season, although it may not match his previous season high.
The model projects one more game played than last season for Thompson but with a five-goal and eight-point boost. Logically, this could account for a healthier version of him than we saw on the ice last season.
If you believe his 2022-2023 production is the standard, then a lean toward his upside is in order. The upside is determined by pulling the 75th percentile of all season simulations. So theoretically, he exceeded 47 goals and 43 points 25% of the time. The 64-point standard projection is the 50th percentile, meaning half of the simulations were higher and half were lower.
Unfortunate for Thompson’s ranking is his position, which is loaded with star talent. His highly projected shot totals help in many fantasy formats, but for Underdog Fantasy’s Best Puck contests, PuckLuck has him ranked as the 24th-best center. In 12-team leagues that start two centers, this puts him on the cusp of replacement value.
More Thompson: Will Tage Thompson Have a Bounce Back Season for Sabres?
3. JJ Peterka
Via Buffalo Hockey Now
JJ Peterka saw an 18-point jump from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign. PuckLuck projects a similar increase in his third season with 65 points in 76 games played. It’s noteworthy that Peterka’s production profile projects to shift a bit, with only a one-goal increase but 14 additional assists.
Playing with prominent finishers like Thompson and Tuch is a major reason for this shift. Players similar to Peterka at his age, such as Travis Konecny, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Brock Boeser, rounded out their game to become better playmakers at 22 years old.
Peterka’s upside is immense and falls in line with his projected linemates. He has well-over point-per-game potential, especially if he establishes himself on Buffalo’s top powerplay. The German winger ranks about 12 wingers and 40 spots behind Tuch as a riskier draftee.
More Peterka: How Peterka, Thompson, Tuch Compare to Other NHL Top Lines
4. Jack Quinn
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The curious case of Jack Quinn relates to the growth of his fellow 2020 draft selection, JJ Peterka. In a limited 27-game sample in an injury-ridiculed season, Quinn went from 0.49 points per game in his first full season to 0.70 points per game last season. This mirrors Peterka’s leap from 0.41 points per game to 0.61. Unlike his draft mate, Quinn did this without the benefit of extensive ice time with Thompson and Tuch.
Quinn outscoring Peterka on a per-game basis shouldn’t come as a surprise, as he was drafted a round higher. His projected scoring rates slightly supersede Peterka as well, despite being projected for mostly second-line and second-powerplay duty.
This is good news for both the Sabres and fantasy hockey managers alike, as it shows Quinn can drive offense on his own and has the potential for a much greater output if he earns a more prominent role. It takes a deep fantasy roster to justify carrying the 70th-ranked winger and the 166th player overall, but the potential for a nice payoff is there if the flier on him works.
5. Dylan Cozens
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Dylan Cozens was a trendy pick by analysts for an offensive explosion last season, but his play went in the other direction. Like Thompson, he may not return to his 2022-2023 form, but he’s due for a jump in production from last season. More games with Quinn on his wing will help, but the Sabres failed to another top-six forward to round out a true sore spot in the lineup.
While he has close to the point-per-game upside of the four others previously listed, Cozens projects to have an 11-point increase in four fewer games. His potential top-powerplay usage is something to monitor, as premium puck touches could be big for the leading candidate to replace Jeff Skinner with the man advantage.
Cozens outranks Quinn based on shots on goal and hits in Underdog’s Best Puck scoring format, but he’s still the 42nd-best center. For season-long leagues, it would take keeping four centers on your roster to keep him fantasy-relevant. If his production creeps closer to his upside, he’ll reach the mid-tier of rosterable centers.
Best of the Rest
Via Buffalo Hockey Now
Jason Zucker
Jason Zucker has a history of up-and-down seasons, but his correlation to a potential top-six role for the Sabres makes him someone to watch for increased goal and assist totals. His 44-point projection keeps him off fantasy radars for now, but his upside would make him a bottom-tier fantasy asset.
Sabres Offseason: Ranking Sabres Offseason Moves
Via Buffalo Hockey Now
Zach Benson
Zach Benson’s potential production spike depends on the opportunity ahead of him. Based on comparisons and the aging curve, there is a wide range of outcomes for the 19-year-old forward. If Benson works his way into the top six and on the first powerplay unit, he could even top PuckLuck’s upside projection. With other options currently ahead of him on the depth chart, there’s not a clear path to fantasy relevance yet.
More Benson: Can Zach Benson Take a Leap in Sophomore Season for Sabres
Via Buffalo Hockey Now
Ryan McLeod
The last Sabres forward with potential fantasy relevance is Buffalo’s latest acquisition, Ryan McLeod. McLeod projects to be the third-line center, although he has some underlying metrics suggesting there could be some offensive upside to his game.
It’s in the range of outcomes that McLeod shifts to the wing in the top six, adding his dynamic speed to complement Cozens and Quinn. If he does, his upside projection of 53 points is feasible.
Having five Sabres forwards on the fantasy forefront and three reserves on the radar hints at a bigger offensive season on the way in 2024-2025. Fantasy relevance doesn’t equal success in the standings, but, combined with solid defense, the Sabres’ playoff prospects could be on the uptick.
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