Who should the Detroit Red Wings draft if they remain at 12th overall?

   

When all else fails in a Detroit Red Wings season, let’s focus on something positive: the upcoming draft that should breathe new life into the organization.

Everett Silvertips v Brandon Wheat Kings

These young players offer endless hope of who they can become and what they can do for Hockeytown. Plenty of options exist, even with the Red Wings picking somewhere in the mushy middle. While it may not have the punch that the top-end of the draft provides, plenty of talent can be found tenth or later in any given draft. Shoot the Dallas Stars found their bonafide star in Wyatt Johnston at 23rd overall in the 2021 National Hockey League (NHL) Entry Level Draft. 

I know Wings fans especially are a bit over the draft.

Some fans even seem tired when they hear about Axel Sandin Pellikka, drafted 17th overall in 2023, breaking records in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL). Like it's not an impressive feat (it is). They just want an impact on their NHL club now. I get it to some degree. But, it doesn't take away any prospect's current success or progress.

As exhausting as it is and disappointing as some outcomes may be, I’m still excited to see who in the 2025 NHL Entry Level Draft may join the Red Wings for years to come. Their injection into the pipeline is as important as any free agent signing or trade deadline deal. I'm very intrigued to see who is selected.

Detroit Red Wings have a variety of options to pick from mid-first round of the NHL Entry Level Draft

Starting with the necessities: I’m using Tankathon’s mock draft for this exercise. For fun, I’ll run a draft lottery simulation. Based on the first lottery that happens, we’ll see who might be available within that range. Afterward, we’ll see how many lottery simulations it takes to get the Red Wings higher in the mock draft itself. Currently, Detroit is in 12th for Tankathon’s mock draft.

I’d love nothing more than to tell you that we were bumped up in the lottery on the first try. The Wings were not, sadly. The good news is that they didn’t fall back in the draft. They were still at 12th overall. 

While drafting for need seems sexy, there aren’t any guarantees. Also, players in this range typically take two or more years to make it to the NHL (if they make it at all). At which point, the need in the NHL may be completely different from draft day. It’s why going with the best player available is typically the right move.

For the record, I don’t put much stock into the counting stats. Especially in the varying leagues and levels of competition, I don’t find the scoring or lack of scoring as intriguing as how they are being sold (the actual scouting profiles). I have included the most recent season’s performance numbers for those of you who are interested. I’ll link their Elie Prospects page if you are interested in previous seasons as well.

Lynden Lakovic

The player listed at 12th overall on Tankathon is Lynden Lakovic. He’s listed on Elite Prospects at 6’4” and 190 lbs.

Not Swedish-trained is a rare find in the Detroit organization as a whole, but there are a few picks that aren’t. One of them, Nate Danielson, is also from western Canada (Alberta). As is late-round pick Emmitt Finnie, just to name another. Sebastian Cossa is a transplant to Western Canada as well. So, the Detroit Red Wings can pick someone from North America, it's just a unique thing.

It could be pure coincidence or confidence in Swedish super scout Håkan Andersson. We’ll never know for sure, but it makes for an interesting and funny discussion.

Getting back to Lakovic, per Elite Prospects linked above, he’s played in 47 games, scored 27 times, and has 31 assists for a total of 58 points with the Moose Jaw Warriors of the Western Hockey League (WHL)—a Canadian junior league. He’s earned only four penalty minutes but is a whopping -25. The public scouts have him ranked anywhere between seventh (DobberProspects) to 30th (Sportsnet/Bukala), with the most common number being tenth. In short, he could go anywhere in the first round but likely close to the top ten. 

With the highest rating, I figured we could jump to DobberProspects for a scouting report to see why they have him so high. They have him listed as a right-winger. 

They say, “Dynamic with a big frame, Lakovic is a transition playmaker with a high ceiling.” 

On that frame, I see why he’s intriguing. 

When we get to observations from January 2025, “…an intriguing player due to his combination of skating, size, playmaking, and raw skill. Lakovic cannot be really considered a power forward at this time. His game doesn’t centre around driving inside or using his body and physicality to gain the net front. Instead, Lakovic creates most of his value through playmaking, puck carrying, and rush offense. At the CHL/USA Prospect Challenge, Lakovic showed more of the things that NHL teams look for, displaying energy on the forecheck, dropping the shoulder on the rush, and finding quality looks for his teammates. The question with Lakovic is whether he’ll be able to develop a more physical, consistent game, and—with the trade deadline departure of Brayden Yager—whether he’ll have the support do so.” Luke Sweeney

The idea intrigues and scares me. We’ve had this question with players in the Detroit Red Wings system. Anthony Mantha is the first name that comes to mind. He still hasn’t quite figured it out. Since getting traded from Detroit to Washington, Mantha has made stops in Vegas and Calgary—where he’s currently playing. In his career, he’s played 507 games scored 146 times, and assisted on 157 goals for a total of 303 points with a -13 rating and 277 penalty minutes.

He’s a player I hoped would put it all together, but hasn’t quite managed to. He’s still useful and carving out a career, but he’s someone I always hoped to see more from. 

Another name that enters the ring is Söderblom. I’ll be honest, before this season, I thought he was destined for the same fate as Mantha. Big player but lacking the conviction and consistency needed as a big man in the NHL.

So far this season, Söderblom has stopped my concerns dead in their tracks. He’s only played in 47 NHL games thus far, but as a sixth-round draft pick in 2019, that’s not bad at all. Söderblom has scored nine times (five in 2022-23, four this season) and assisted on 10 goals (three in his first season in the NHL, seven this season) for a total of 19 points. He has a +2 rating with 14 penalty minutes (a lot of which weren’t even penalties; they just called the big man as he was the first guy they saw). Of course, it’s less than a full season, but Söderblom hasn’t shied away from physicality this season (especially when his teammates are involved).

In the middle of these two ends, we have Michael Rasmussen. He’s kind of a blend of the previous two. He can play physical, but also isn’t consistent in his physical play. 

The question is where will Lakovic land over his career. If it’s closer to Söderblom, he’s worth the risk. Heck, even Mantha helped with getting Cossa (as the pick used from the Mantha trade was coupled with another to trade up to select Cossa in 2021). 

In a ranking released in January 2025, it appears that Jason Bukala has updated his rankings placing Lakovic 21st overall. Bukala states, “Lakovic is an excellent skater. He’s fluid in open ice and has the ability to gain the edge off the rush and direct pucks on net. He’s dangerous on the power play, working off the flank. Tough to defend below the dots and working off the cycle, Lakovic’s defensive detail and physical pushback is a work in progress.”

Lack of physicality in over-sized players—especially in their younger years isn’t uncommon. I remember hearing that the reason Söderblom didn’t play so physical was the fact that he was afraid to hurt people. I can respect that fear, and maybe Lakovic has a similar feeling. 

When someone knows he’s the biggest guy and can injure other players, it’s refreshing to see a player who doesn’t abuse that privilege. In almost every other context, I’d count it as a positive trait in a person. In the context of hockey, though, if you’re not a brute, it’s determined that the player is weak. I can respect both sides of the argument.

At this time (and within their pipeline), the Red Wings might need someone a bit spicier. Yet, I still find Lakovic an intriguing option.

Radim Mrtka 

For fun, I figured we’d go one prospect up and down from 12th overall.

At 11th overall in Tankathon’s mock draft, it lists Radim Mrtka. He’s listed as a right-handed defenseman—one of the hardest positions to fill and maintain for all NHL clubs.

For that reason alone, I find it difficult to see him falling this far. Above Mrtka in the draft, there sits no other right-handed defenseman (just skimming Tankathon's rankings--each outlet has its own preferences). Right-handed defensemen rarely make it outside of the top ten in any given draft (at least the highest-ranked right-handed defenseman). Since the position is a premium position, even a slightly less desirable prospect gains a few slots based on his position alone.

We’ll do a quick dive into his profile. (He won't be there, though.)

Another towering defenseman out of Czechia—seriously what are they doing differently there? Popping out huge defensemen like Idaho grows potatoes.

Mrtka stands at 6’6” and weighs in at 198 lbs. Seemingly, a close to NHL-ready frame makes his draft stock even higher (and less likely he’s even an option for the Wings at 12th overall).

Per Elite Prospects, he’s a two-way defenseman. In 43 games played, he’s scored three times and has assisted on 32 goals for a total of 35 points with the Seattle Thunderbirds in the WHL. He’s taken 46 penalty minutes and has a +10 rating. 

Ranked anywhere between sixth (NHL Central Scouting [NA Skaters], as he plays in the WHL) and as low as 20th overall (Daily Faceoff). He averages out in the mid-teens.

From what I could find, NHL Central Scouting didn’t have a draft profile for Mrtka, so I’ll go back to the Sportsnet article linked above for Lakovic. 

Bukala ranks Mrtka at 10th overall. Citing: “Mrtka is a towering right-shot defenceman who started the year in his native Czechia before making the move to the WHL to play in Seattle. He now has 22 WHL games under his belt and he’s improving week by week. It’s a big adjustment for a defenceman to adjust to the smaller ice surface in North America, compared to Europe. Mrtka has great hockey sense. He reads how plays are developing and works to get in proper position in all three zones. His small-area quickness and agility are a work in progress, but he uses his size and reach effectively to kill plays defensively. He’s mostly simple with the puck but Seattle is giving him an opportunity on their power play as a distributor. Mrtka is a name to keep a very close eye on. NHL teams covet defencemen with his stature who shoot right.” 

As for the lower-rated draft profile, originally ranked 15th overall in their November rankings, Mrtka dropped to 20th overall. Here’s Scott Ellis’ profile from the January 16, 2025, ranking: “At 6-foot-6, Mrtka is definitely hard to miss on the ice. After starting the year struggling for opportunities in Czechia, he transferred to the WHL in late November, where he has managed to play at just less than a point per game despite Seattle’s struggles to win games. Mrtka has size and some decent creativity, making it difficult to beat him down the middle. Mrtka’s skating needs to improve to the next step in his game, but I like that he’s playing more than 25 minutes a night in the WHL.” 

Feel like this guy is music to Yzerman’s ears. A defenseman with offensive creativity who shoots right. Although Mrtka needs to improve his skating, it’s something that doesn’t scare Yzerman away.

Carter Bear

The 13th prospect listed on Tankathon’s mock draft is Carter Bear. A center/left winger who shoots left. Listed at 6’ and 176 lbs. While wearing an “A,” Bear has played in 56 games. He scored 40 goals and assisted on 42 goals for a total of 82 points. He took 77 penalty minutes and earned a +33 rating while playing for Everett Silvertips of the WHL.

On Elite Prospects, he’s ranked anywhere between seventh (Recruit Scouting) and 22 (TSN/Craig Button). By my rough guesstimate, he likely averages out in the mid-teens.

Since I couldn’t find a Recruit Scouting profile on Bear, I went with Elite Prospects (ranked eighth on Bear’s Elite Prospects page) and their profile from Mitch Brown posted in October 2024. Brown states:

“Carter Bear is Silvertips hockey. Name a style; he can play it. Name a role; he can fill it. He’s a skilled net-front finisher, precision playmaker, shutdown defensive forward, penalty-killer extraordinaire, and super pest all in one. 

With Bear, it’s often in the details: The stick work and route to kill an opposing rush, the pick to create space, the slick pass off the wall for a clean breakout, and so on. Now he’s become a dynamic scorer, too. He hits give-and-gos to break through the defence, draws defense attention before slipping a pass to the open teammate, and consistently finds the best pass, even while fighting through contact. No WHLer gets off the wall more, and no WHLer is more willing to absorb and dish out punishment to make a play.

When all else fails, Bear has the special work rate and battle level to overcome. He wins battles on the second, third, and fourth effort, dives head first into shooting lanes, and never deviates from his high-intensity style — no matter the score. And that’s while having top-six skill.

Look for Bear inside our top 10 when our next ranking drops....”

FCHockey echoes the thoughts of Bear, but the overall platform shows Bear at 20th overall based on his Elite Prospects page: “Bear is an energetic forward who combines a high motor with a complete skating package and solid puck skills to produce offense. The most notable aspect of his game is his compete level. Bear isn’t the biggest player, but his strong center of gravity helps him succeed in puck battles in the corners and avoid being physically overwhelmed…” according to Kareem Elshafey from a January 2025 report. 

Kohen Willis Dengler adds in his scout profile from earlier in January: “Bear is a versatile two-way player with elite skating ability and a strong hockey IQ, capable of playing both center and wing. His dynamic speed and agility allow him to be a constant presence on the ice, always moving in the offensive zone to find open ice and create chances. Bear’s ability to cut and change direction, combined with excellent hands, makes him elusive in tight spaces…”

While this type of player seems to be a dime a dozen, the Detroit Red Wings organization has lacked consistent role players like Bear for a while. Carter Mazur is a name that comes to mind (not just because they have the same first name) in the current Red Wings roster. If Mazur gets healthy, Mazur could fill a similar role, but it’s hard to have too many players like Bear (and Mazur). 

Listening to the public scouts who like Bear makes me think he might not be available for the Wings, either. If he is, I’m sure that Kris Draper (director of amateur scouting and the assistant general manager for the Red Wings) would trip over himself to get to the podium and announce Bear’s name.

Bear’s Achilles tendon tore in March, so some NHL clubs may be scared off by the injury. 

Getting to second overall

After only 18 clicks of the lottery, I found the Detroit Red Wings selecting second overall. 

Of course, this won’t happen in the real world, but it’s always fun to hope. It’s much more likely the Pittsburgh Penguins jump up (because why wouldn’t the NHL darling of a team get Sidney Crosby some help?). 

Even without the higher pick, the Red Wings are destined to add a great player to their organization. While everyone questions the Yzerplan, the draft selections are, at worst, average. Most fans categorize it as the strength of the Yzerplan. I fall into that second category. Not every player hits, but they throw their darts with purpose. 

I, for one, can’t wait to see who they select next. Who do you want to see in the Winged Wheel?