Why Carlos Rodon is Yankees’ X-factor for 2025 World Series run

New York Yankees starter Carlos Rodon had already thrown 7.2 innings of scoreless baseball during last weekend’s series opener against the Chicago Cubs.

With an 8-0 lead, two outs, and runners on the corners, manager Aaron Boone came out to talk to the 32-year-old who had already thrown 103 pitches. After a brief back-and-forth, Rodon stayed on the mound and retired Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker to complete his eighth inning of work.

The moment capped off a strong first half for the All-Star starter, and served as a reminder of how far the southpaw has come since his first season in the Bronx. Rodon’s progress is a sign of personal growth, but could also be seen as a blueprint for how the Yankees must attack the second half of the season.

“I wasn’t good when I first got here,” Rodon said after his latest start. “I wanted to prove that I wasn’t going to give up and just put my best foot forward and win as many games as I can.”

The Miami native’s first season in pinstripes was a disaster. He began the season on the injured list and did not make his first appearance until July. Across 14 starts that season, Rodon went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 28th percentile in Fastball Run Value and the first percentile in Barrel%.

Rodon began to tweak his approach along with the help of pitching coach Matt Blake ahead of the 2024 campaign. Up until that point in his career, Rodon had primarily relied on two pitches.

During his most successful seasons with the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants, he predominantly used his fastball and slider. Opposing teams started to catch on, and ultimately forced the veteran to adapt.

“It was time to change how I pitched because fastball-slider did work out well, but the game changed,” Rodon said before the start of the season. “That was my bread and butter. It’s hard to come off that. I understand, well, why don’t you just throw your changeup more? It’s one of those things where I do have a slider that’s really good, and why would you switch to this pitch you just started throwing? I’ve gained confidence with the changeup, and the usage will obviously go up this year.”

2024 saw the lefty put together a more accurate representation of his skillset as the Yankees won the American League crown. Through 32 starts, he went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA.

Rodon was far from perfect during New York’s October run, but turned in a memorable Game 1 showing against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS. He surrendered only one run and three hits while striking out nine batters through six innings.

This kind of start has been more common to start the 2025 season. Rodon has posted a 10-6 record with a 3.08 ERA through 20 starts. He ranks in the 91st percentile in Fastball Run Value and the 89th percentile in xBA. Additionally, he’s thrown his fastball around 40 percent of the time. By comparison, Rodon threw the pitch roughly 60% of the time in 2023.

A willingness to adapt has been the driving force behind Rodon’s renaissance, and this same mentality that could catapult New York back into the World Series.

The Yankees are in position to make another Postseason appearance. At 53-43, they might be able to outlast the Toronto Blue Jays and win the AL East with the right adjustments. Beyond any potential trade deadline moves, it will be important for the current cast to make modifications to their approach.

The lineup has been baseball’s best in terms of OPS and home runs, but has struggled to hit with runners in scoring position. They’ve accrued the second most strikeouts in those situations, and hold a .247 batting average under the same circumstances.

Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and the rest of the Yankees’ lineup will have to remedy this if they want to make a deep playoff run. Power is important, but situational hitting has been a problem for the team during  Boone’s tenure as manager.

New York’s rotation has been largely solid without ace Gerrit Cole. Max Fried and Rodon have led a group that owns the sixth-best ERA in baseball. The unit’s back end has been a revolving door, and will ultimately look much different by the end of the year.

Clarke Schmidt’s season-ending injury, the inevitable return of reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, the emergence of Cam Schlittler, and potential trade deadline ripple effects will force the rotation to evolve and find ways to stay ahead of the opposition.

The same can be said of a bullpen that has been good but not great. Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Jonathan Loaisiga, and a number of other relievers have enjoyed flashes of brilliance. But, the group has not found a reliable combination.

Rodon’s performance on the mound could help raise New York’s ceiling, but the philosophy behind his resurgence might be more significant.

The Yankees have the talent to make a serious run, but they will have to be industrious enough to realize their present shortcomings.

“I sit here very convinced that we have a really good club with tremendous capabilities, but we’ve got to go realize that potential,” Boone said. “Now we get to go hopefully make it happen here the rest of the way in the second half, and ultimately become the team we ultimately want to be.”