Why Flyers should trade for Stuart Skinner

The Philadelphia Flyers need to address the goaltending this summer, and their answer might be riding the bench for the Edmonton Oilers right now.

Feb 9, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The most obvious statement you can make about the Philadelphia Flyers this summer is that they need to address their goaltending. And their answer might be currently riding the bench in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Stuart Skinner may be one of the most maligned goaltenders left in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He started the 2023-24 season in the proverbial toilet, playing so poorly that it forced the Edmonton Oilers to fire head coach Jay Woodcroft and replaced him with Kris Knoblauch. All of a sudden, Skinner started making saves, and the Oilers went on a heater the rest of the season and made a run to the Stanley Cup Final, where they lost to the Florida Panthers. Skinner finished the year with a respectable .905 save percentage (SV%) and the 22nd-highest goals saved above expected (GSAx) among all NHL netminders, with 13.07 in 59 games played, per Evolving Hockey.

Then, in the 2024-25 regular season, Skinner never really shook off the mediocrity. He showed flashes at times but, by season’s end, finished with an .895 SV% and only 7.0 GSAx (34th in NHL). Now, he’s not even Edmonton’s starting goalie in the playoffs–he’s lost the job to Cal Pickard. Pickard’s regular season stats are even less impressive than Skinner’s: the same save percentage and a -5.86 GSAx in 36 games played but is just the other option and is doing well enough to continue being in the starter’s crease. The Oilers are getting it done on the backs of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl but, as good as those two players are, can they keep it up for an entire playoff run and shelter their subpar goaltending? With McDavid’s next contract looming, what happens if they get eliminated before reaching the Final?

Enter the Philadelphia Flyers. Let’s break down why acquiring Stuart Skinner makes sense for the Flyers, and why the Oilers can’t afford another season of shaky goaltending.

Edmonton: Cap-strained and desperate

There’s no mystique here: the Oilers are in Cup-or-bust mode. Superstar Connor McDavid has one year left on his current contract and, starting July 1, is eligible for a contract extension–and he is going to get paid. Edmonton already lost promising players Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to offer sheets last summer because they backed themselves into a cap corner, and there will be little room to maneuver this off season with so many big contracts carrying no-trade and no-move clauses, and needing to re-sign restricted free agent Evan Bouchard. The Oilers need cap space, and they need a reliable goalie–the Flyers can help with one of those things.

Stuart Skinner has proven too unreliable to be a starter in the prime of McDavid and Draisaitl’s careers, and the one year left of his $2.6-million AAV contract could be allocated to more pressing areas of need. The Flyers aren’t exactly swimming in cap space, but they can absolutely take on Skinner’s contract with little issue. Given Edmonton’s desperation and cap strain, Skinner likely wouldn’t cost much to acquire–a mid-round pick, maybe? The Flyers have oodles of draft capital, and the Oilers’ cupboards are bare; Edmonton probably wouldn’t scoff at picks to flip for win-now pieces. Add in the fact that Skinner’s contract expires at the same time as McDavid’s–and he’d need a raise, too–and there’s even more incentive for the Oilers to move on and find some stability in the blue paint.

The only major question going forward when it comes to the Oilers’ goaltending and its price, is if they can upgrade the position while not paying an exorbitant price to do so. If Skinner’s subpar play costs them $2.6 million next season, and there is an option to get an above-average goaltender but it would cost double that on their cap, do they do it? It’s something they will need to figure out and would either cause of prevent them trading their 26-year-old goalie.

Stuart Skinner: Age and track record

Despite the flack Skinner catches (Canadian market, superstar team, etc.), he’s actually a decent goalie. He’s played over 50 games in each of the last three regular seasons, and averaged a .904 SV% and 12.82 GSAx in that time. If the Flyers had goaltending like that in either of the past two seasons, they would’ve undoubtably made the playoffs. For reference, league average goaltending the past three regular seasons, per Hockey Reference, is a .902 SV%. Skinner’s right there.

The problem, in Skinner’s case, is that he’s playing in Edmonton, a team that’s in win-now mode. “Just okay” isn’t going to cut it when you’ve got McDavid and Draisaitl in their primes–and Skinner’s playoff record isn’t sparkling. In 37 playoff games, Skinner’s average save percentage is .867, and he’s posted a -1.86 GSAx in that span. Skinner’s only played two playoff games this year, and he put up an .823 SV% and -2.71 GSAx. Yikes! Skinner’s save percentage is the worst of the playoffs, and the only two goalies who’ve been worse by GSAx are *checks notes* Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy? The playoffs are weird, man, but no team is winning a Stanley Cup with that kind of goaltending (and it’s a miracle the Winnipeg Jets made it out of the first round). The Oilers can get by on average in the regular season, but Skinner has struggled to elevate his game when it matters, and Edmonton can’t afford to run it back given his track record in the postseason.

However, we’ve written about recent goalie trends, and giving up on Skinner now would be quite the folly by Edmonton. To refresh: bona fide starting goaltenders generally establish themselves in their early 20s, but tandem goalies (1As and good 1Bs) tend to hit their stride around age 27 or 28. It could be the case that Skinner just can’t be the guy in net for the Oilers–but he’d be perfect for the Flyers.

The Flyers: Skinner’s fit

The Flyers’ goaltending last season was bad. Atrocious. According to Evolving Hockey, the Flyers iced three of the five worst goaltenders in the league by goals saved above expected: Ivan Fedotov posted -12.03, Aleksei Kolosov had -11.09, and Sam Ersson had the worst in the entire NHL with -22.09. That’s a serious problem! Though as highlighted previously, it’s too soon to give up on Ersson; the dream of him becoming a true starter is probably gone, but he could yet be a solid tandem goalie–he just needs some support from a goalie that isn’t made of Swiss cheese.

Who better to lend that support than another guy on the path to becoming a tandem goalie in Stuart Skinner?

Skinner is 26 years old, and turns 27 in November–right in that sweet spot that tandem goaltenders have been establishing themselves in the NHL the last couple years. Given his up-and-down career so far, that makes him the perfect target for a reclamation project. He’s got one year left on his contract (same as Ersson), so there’s little commitment. He’s shown he can play 50 games but, ideally, he wouldn’t need to be leaned on quite that much here in Philadelphia. The overall risk for the Flyers is quite low compared to acquiring, say, 31-year old John Gibson, who has two years remaining on a $6.4-million AAV contract and lousy numbers: 3.47 GSAx and a .901 SV% over the last three seasons in 32 fewer games, mostly due to injuries this past season.

It’s true that the Flyers have promising prospects in Yegor Zavragin and Carson Bjarnason but, at just 19, it’s unlikely that, even in a perfect world, one or both will be NHL ready (or even in North America) for a few years. The Flyers cannot wait that long to get Ersson some help and running it back with Fedotov and Kolosov as backups next season wouldn’t be fair to the rest of the team, either. It’s difficult to assess and make judgements about players when their netminder can’t stop a puck to save their life–and that does a disservice to the overarching rebuild plan.

Playoff performances aside, Stuart Skinner would make an excellent tandem option to play with Sam Ersson next season. He’s low risk, the right age to target, his career numbers aren’t too shabby, and the Oilers might be desperate enough to shakeup their roster and let him go for a pittance. The Flyers shouldn’t give up the farm to get him but, if he’s available and it the asking price makes sense, trading for Skinner would be a savvy move.

If the unrestricted free agent market is all dried up, and the Flyers have an opportunity to get someone in a good age range that has shown flashes of solid play before, and it wouldn’t cost too much in assets? This might be the move.