Why it’s not time to panic if you’re the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Ottawa Senators won their first game in the Battle of Ontario Saturday night, 4–3 in overtime. While the Toronto Maple Leafs lead the series 3–1, much of the discourse is around how the Maple Leafs can’t get it done. For example, Sportsnet is quick to jump on the fact that the Maple Leafs are 1–13 in potential close-out games. However, it is not time to panic just yet.

Yes, we are all well aware that the Maple Leafs’ playoff track record for the last eight years is abysmal. Yes, we remember erasing the 3–1 deficit against the Boston Bruins in 2018 to blow it in Game 7. Or blowing the 3–1 series lead to the worse-off Montreal Canadiens in 2021. However, it is rare for a team to completely erase a 3–0 deficit.

History is on the Maple Leafs’ side

Only four teams in NHL history have completed the reverse sweep. We have the Los Angeles Kings in 2014 that reverse swept the San Jose Sharks en route to winning the Stanley Cup. In 2010, the Philadelphia Flyers reverse swept the Boston Bruins in the Conference Semifinals. That Flyers team made it to the Stanley Cup Final. 

Over three decades ago, 35 years to be exact, before the Flyers was the third reverse sweep. The New York Islanders completed one against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Conference Semifinals. They almost completed a second reverse sweep against the Philadelphia Flyers in the Conference Finals, but fell in Game 7.

Lastly, the first reverse sweep recorded in NHL history was in the 1942 Stanley Cup Final. The Maple Leafs completed the reverse sweep against the Detroit Red Wings to win the Stanley Cup. This is the only time a reverse sweep has happened in the Stanley Cup Final.

The Maple Leafs team has three more opportunities to close out the series against the Senators. While they still have demons, and need to do the work to win one more game, I think it’s obvious that this team looks different from previous years.

The Core Four and the power play have shown up

Every year come playoffs, the Core Four does not show up offensively, and the power play falls of a cliff. So far this year, the core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander have scored six goals, and 17 assists for an astounding 26 points. Marner is tied for sixth in points with seven, and tied for third in assists with six. 

For comparison sake, last year, the core four had six goals, six assists for 12 points over seven games. Now, Matthews missed three games, and Nylander missed two, so it’s not really a fair comparison. When we compare to the year that the Maple Leafs made the second round against the Florida Panthers in 2022–23, the core four scored 16 goals, 27 assists for 43 points over 11 games.

The power play has finally showed up in the playoffs. Over the four games, the power play is tied for third in the NHL playoffs with the Montreal Candiens with a 38.5%. They have scored five goals so far. For reference, last year against the Boston Bruins in seven games, they scored one goal. In the 2022–23 season, through 11 games, they scored eight goals on the power play.

This year, the core four have already scored 61% of the points they scored in 2022–23, playing one-third of the games. The Maple Leafs have already scored half of the power play goals they scored in 2022–23 through four games against the Senators. Finally, after the years of failures, the team is starting to actualize their potential.

The defence has been great at both ends

One factor as to why this team looks different this year is because of their defence. However, heading into the playoffs, one of the biggest weaknesses with the Craig Berube Maple Leafs was that their defence did not produce much offence. The Maple Leafs’ defence corps was dead last in goals during the regular season by defenceman with 21.

This playoffs, the Maple Leafs defence corps has scored five goals. This includes Simon Benoit’s overtime game winner in Game three and Oliver Ekman-Larsson game-tying goal in Game 4.

Where the defence has also shone has been in their own end. The Maple Leafs lead all playoff teams this year with 95 blocks and 24 takeaways, and are 13th in giveaways with 45. The Senators are second in missed shots with 83 and fifth in shot attempts with 242. The eye test supports this. 

The Maple Leafs have allowed shots, but many of these shots have been from the perimeter. In other words, the Maple Leafs are fine with the opposing team getting shots against, but they’re going to be low quality chances. And who wouldn’t when Anthony Stolarz has played very well, going 11–1 in his last 12 starts.

However, there is little discussion about how the Maple Leafs have been very good at shot suppression when needed.

Table 1. Shots by the Ottawa Senators in the second and third periods in the last three games.