Why the Bears’ Hype Might Be All Smoke: 5 Brutal Reasons Chicago Could Crash, Not Climb

All of the reports about the Bears winning the offseason can lead to a conclusion the team's fans want to hear.

All of it can mean they can go from worst to first like the franchise did from 2000 to 2001, from 2004 to 2005 and from 2017 to 2018. The late Dick Jauron, Lovie Smith and Matt Nagy authored those changes.

Ben Johnson looks like the kind of drastic alteration at head coach who could do something similar.

Colin Cowherd of Fox Sports frequently comes up with outlandish predictions at this time of year and has by saying the Bears will go to the playoffs. He didn't say they would win the division or go crazy and predict a Super Bowl like Fox colleague Nick Wright did last year.

However, jumping from fourth to first or even to the playoffs requires the right set of circumstances.

A team needs an effective, if not dominant, defense, an explosive offense and the right mix in coaching and players. They also need breaks.

While the Bears made numerous changes in the offseason, and in many ways it appears things could stack up for them to make a run, ultimately it could be too great of a task to go from fourth to first.

Here's why.

1. The NFC North

It's true the Lions lost half a coaching staff and their offensive line will be different at three positions. It's true the Vikings will have essentially a rookie at quarterback. And it's true the Packers seem to have stagnated under Matt LaFleur, who has been there six years without getting to the Super Bowl while both Mike Holmgren and Mike McCarthy had won Super Bowls by their fifth seasons.

It looks like it's set up for a surprise team, but the Lions might be set up to do it a different way now and that's on defense. With Aidan Hutchinson, their secondary and Alim McNeill back from injury, they could have the division's best defense. Even if their line struggles on offense and the point production goes down without Ben Johnson, they could be up for winning games 21-17 instead of 41-37. They had the fifth-best run defense even with all of their injuries last season.

McCarthy doesn't have to be a smashing success because he's backed by two solid running backs in Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, with wide receivers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, tight end T. J. Hockenson and an offensive line that already had Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill at tackle but now has former Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and former rising Colts lineman Will Fries. Their defense was second against the run and now has added Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave to cover up any weakness from gambling too much with A-gap blitzes.

The Packers were just a young team succeeding and getting closer to coming into their own last year. They could get there now with better receivers and a more experienced offensive line.

Making it through the NFC North 1-5 could be an accomplishment.

2. Caleb Williams inaccuracy

While it follows logic he'll improve with better coaching from Ben Johnson and most QBs improve in Year 2, Williams has some rather basic improvements he must make regarding his primary function— passing the ball. Pro Football Focus graded him worst among the five first-round rookie QBs who played last year at accuracy (54.7%  rate) and pressure-to-sack ratio (26.1%) while also giving him the highest uncatchable pass rate (23.2%) from the group.

Maybe a better offensive line helps him settle down and make more accurate throw, and a more deadly system of attack schemes more receivers wide open, but e has an awful lot of catching up to do based on last year's inaccuracy.

3. Running game struggles

They should be able to run block better with Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman added to he offensive line, but their backs struggled breaking tackles last season. They need a running game working and reliable for Johnsons play action-based attack to work and with D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson and Kyle Monangai as the ball carriers it would appear an average running game would be about the best they could hope to accomplish. Williams needs the benefit of a dominant running attack to settle into the passing game.

4. Insufficient pass rush

Montez Sweat's off-season in 2024 did nothing to fuel hopes he can terrorize QBs. Dayo Odeyingbo has ever had more than seven sacks. Grady Jarrett is 32 years old. Maybe they can get continued improvement in Year 3 from Gervon Dexter. They're going to have to get it from him because the 40 sacks they had last year look like a target they might have trouble achieving again without sustained blitzing.

5. Scheme changes

The root of much optimism is a double-edged sword. Sure, they have a new offense they see as potentially explosive. They're just starting to work into it and it takes time on task for players to have confidence in themselves with their new roles. Sweat was already calling it complex.

The same is true on defense, perhaps even moreso. This is a drastic change for the defense to go to one where they're playing almost twice as much man-to-man coverage based on what defensive coordinator Dennis Allen did in New Orleans. Whether they have the right personnel to run it rapidly produce results is questionable.

6. Ben Johnson inexperience

Johnson hasn't had to work with a young quarterback like Williams. Does he have patience to make this relationship work? Johnson's other inexperience issue is in his strength—play calling. He had a "governor" of sorts in place restraining him in Detroit named Dan Campbell. It's safe to wonder if Johnson's love of trickery will get the best of him while trying to coach a team that hasn't shown it can block the basic plays yet. If these things fail, how does Johnson handle it?