Wһy tһe Yаnkees сould see $162 mіllіon stаrter domіnаte іn 2025

Including the postseason, Carlos Rodon posted a 3.47 ERA in 16 starts after the All-Star Break, striking out 30.7% of batters faced in the process. Home runs were still a problem for the left-hander, who has been marred by damage contact in his time with the Yankees, but the ability to put up dominant strikeout-to-walk numbers is arguably the most important skill for a pitcher. Few metrics are better indicators of success than K-BB%, and Rodon was one of the elite pitchers in the sport in that metric during the second half.

The reason that Rodon has been able to dramatically improve upon his strikeout rate has to do with his brand-new changeup, a pitch that was able to get right-handed hitters to chase out of zone and whiff more often. With the Yankees, there was a huge drop-off in strikeout rate that made many believe that Carlos Rodon had seen a degradation in pitch quality or command, but in reality, he had just become extremely predictable for opposing batters to face with his two-pitch repertoire.

Carlos Rodon’s changeup was arguably his best pitch this past season, as hitters couldn’t make much contact or generate much power against the pitch all season.

With the ability to strike batters out at an elite clip in the second half, Carlos Rodon showed that he still possesses the kind of upside that netted him that big six-year deal with the Yankees in the first place. Having a pitch that could move down and away from right-handed batters made the other pitches in his repertoire better, as hitters weren’t just sitting on the fastball or slider as much as they would before.

Batters whiffed 23.5% at his four-seamer in the second half which is much closer to the whiff rates we saw his four-seamer produce with the Giants and White Sox in 2022 and 2021. His fastball had become a pitch that got crushed and didn’t miss many bats, and while it’s still hit very hard, it can at least work up in the zone and put hitters away with a swing and miss, making it a viable option to throw in critical situations.

A deeper pitch mix can make a pitcher with already electric stuff better, and Carlos Rodon legitimately has some of the best pitch quality in the league:

Carlos Rodon’s fastball, slider, and changeup all graded out in the top 10 for starting pitchers in terms of Stuff+ (min. 150 IP), and that kind of excellence should bode well for him in 2025. In the postseason we also saw him tinker with an old experiment that he quickly ditched in 2024, as his cutter became a show pitch for him that performed well in the tiny sample size of data we have for it.

With good vertical movement and little horizontal movement it’s a good pitch to mix-in as it looks like his four-seamer out-of-hand, but after it was rendered ineffective in the regular season he came back to it in October. He was able to get some soft contact on that pitch and induce some swings and misses as well, and it will be interesting to see if Carlos Rodon utilizes it as a fourth pitch in 2025 over his curveball or not.

A more complete pitcher than he has been at any step of his career in terms of pitch quality and arsenal depth, the Yankees could see Carlos Rodon put up big-time numbers in 2025. Steamer projects a 3.88 ERA and 200 strikeouts cross 176 innings for the southpaw, but if he’s able to strike out hitters at a similar clip to his second-half numbers, we could see him outperform those already solid projections.

Strikeouts are the key to success for pitchers, and the Yankees might have the big strikeout artist they paid $162 million for back for good.