On Friday, the Oilers continued to shock the hockey world when they made a significant trade, sending Ryan McLeod and Ty Tullio to the Buffalo Sabres for Matthew Savoie.
The trade itself is some strong asset management by the Oilers. They’re able to turn a bottom-six player into a top prospect, one who has racked up points in the Western Hockey League and one who should be in the NHL sooner rather than later.
Savoie instantly becomes the top prospect in the Oilers’ system and his potent offensive ability, as well as his entry-level contract, will help this team over the course of the next three seasons. While clearing cap space in McLeod’s $2.1-million contract, the Oilers are able to get younger and deeper as an organization.
While Savoie might spend the whole season in the American Hockey League, something that could be best for his development as a player who still has warts, the trade also saw the Oilers move a player who contributed in the bottom-six last season.
It begs the question: will the Oilers regret moving McLeod?
There is no denying the negatives in McLeod’s game. Despite setting career highs in goals, assists and points with 12, 18 and 30, his best offence this season came when he was on a line with Leon Draisaitl. Five of his goals and 11 of his points came in his 186 minutes with him at 5v5 as McLeod scored at a 3.5 points per hour rate. When McLeod wasn’t with Draisaitl, he scored at just 1.1 points per hour.
His inability to produce offence has long been the biggest knock against McLeod. While he’s been a centre, he profiles better as a wing as he’s never been somebody who has gone to the dirty areas, so to speak. It’s not to say he’s a bad player, though. He has speed to burn and a very high hockey IQ, always able to put himself into areas to be successful.
He’s somebody who has long been able to exit the Oilers zone with relative ease, helping flip the play and get the puck into the offensive zone. The problem? McLeod and the players he’s played with have struggled to turn that into goals for the Oilers. It’s not unreasonable to think his offensive game could’ve continued to grow, but it would’ve been limited in Edmonton due to the linemates he’s played with.
What McLeod always excelled at is being able to drive play in the right direction without playing with Connor McDavid or Draisaitl. Over the last two seasons at five-on-five in this situation, McLeod played 1338 minutes, with the Oilers controlling 56.26 percent of the shot attempt share, 57.11 percent of the scoring chance share, 57.01 percent of the expected goal share and 50.53 percent of the goal share. When none of the three have been on the ice, the Oilers have tread water, controlling 52.91 percent of the goal share and being within one percentage point of even in the others.
According to HockeyViz.com, McLeod has driven play at a rate above that of a first-line player. He contributes offence at a 10 percent rate above league average, defence at a nine percent rate above league average, and penalty kill work at a seven percent rate above league average.
Say what you will about McLeod, but those are very impressive numbers for a bottom-six player. The Oilers have long struggled to find players who are able to drive play without the Dynamic Duo on the ice, and McLeod has done so in bunches. This is likely why the Sabres targeted him, and why they were able to part with an excellent prospect.
This is where my concern, at least in the short term, comes into play. Removing a player like McLeod from the bottom-six group increases the pressure on the other players in that group, as well as on the Oilers’ defence to effectively exit the zone. Beyond the likes of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard, the other four defencemen haven’t done so in the last two years.
Edmonton’s current bottom-six isn’t exactly known for excellent play driving. The best of the bunch might be Adam Henrique, but he isn’t exactly a spry young man anymore, either. He’s someone who is going to need to shoulder a significant load for the Oilers.
In his 22 regular season games with Henrique on the ice without McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers outscored the opposition 8-5 at five-on-five but heavily lost the possession battle. That continued in the playoffs as he helped outscore 6-3 in his 17 games, but once again, heavily lost the possession battle. Those numbers are propped up by unsustainably high on-ice shooting and save percentages, and will come down to earth over some larger sample sizes.
Through it all, the Oilers still win this trade because of the long-term upside Savoie projects for and the team is banking on that actualizing.
In the short term, I worry about strong play driving without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice. Yes, the Oilers have been able to outscore the opposition without them or McLeod on the ice in the last two years, but giving as much as you get can be a dangerous game to play.
