NFL draft week has finally arrived, and everyone expects the Denver Broncos to go running back. According to most analysts, that is the Broncos' most significant need, and they have done a lot of work on the running back in this class.
However, Pro Football Focus' Mason Cameron has another idea for the ideal first-round fit for Sean Payton’s Broncos.
Instead of running back, Cameron suggests Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III is the best fit for the Broncos with the 20th overall pick. With GM George Paton and Payton speaking highly of the team's current wide receiver room, it might surprise some if the Broncos were to go with a receiver in the first round.
So, why did Cameron go with a wide receiver? Let's examine.
“Sean Payton’s offense needs more playmaking from its receiving corps to better support young quarterback Bo Nix," Cameron wrote. "While Luther Burden is undervalued by consensus rankings (No. 34), he’s a clear first-round talent on PFF’s board (No. 14), backed by a 94th-percentile separation rate over the past two seasons. He would give Denver a true difference-maker out of the slot.”
Cameron's assertions sound good, and to an extent, they're true. The Broncos can use more talent at wide receiver to help Nix and have more play-making potential from the position. The issue is with Burden as a player and the conflict created by having Marvin Mims Jr. on the roster.
Both players work best out of the slot, and neither is much more than a gadget receiver, though Mims has had flashes at the NFL level. With Burden, there were attempts to make him a more successful traditional receiver in college early in the 2024 season, but the Tigers reverted to utilizing him as a gadget, where he saw success.
Burden's separation rate is a nice flashy number, but his usage artificially bloats it as a gadget receiver. So, while he could be a difference-maker, he would be redundant in Denver.
The Broncos need a more traditional receiver who isn’t limited to being a slot-only gadget guy for their first two or three seasons, like Burden. Again, Denver already has a player like that with Mims.
Mims and Burden aren’t the same player, and the latter is the best after-the-catch receiver in this class. Mims is good there himself, but he is more of a vertical threat, so there's a way the Broncos could use both of them. However, it would be difficult to use both consistently, which would limit the overall impact of each.
The biggest issue is with the locker room Payton is cultivating, and how Burden would be a fit in that regard. Throughout the draft process, there have been multiple reports about attitude and character concerns with Burden, which the Broncos likely would have vetted, including when they brought him in for a team visit.
While there's an argument to make that Burden could make some sense for the Broncos, multiple options are better fits, and most will be available when the Broncos are on the clock.
