If the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fail to agree on an extension by Guerrero’s self-imposed deadline of Feb. 17, the four-time All-Star’s impending free agency will become a major storyline throughout the season—echoing the 2024 saga between Juan Soto and the New York Yankees. Some of the key figures from that drama appear poised to square off again.
Jul 13, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; American League first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays (27) celebrates with New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge after hitting a home run during the 2021 MLB All Star Game at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
New York Post columnist and MLB insider Jon Heyman reported Thursday that the Yankees, who signed veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year stopgap deal this winter, are considered among the most logical suitors for their division rival’s star if he hits the open market. Despite previously insisting he would never play for the Yankees, Guerrero appears to have softened his stance on the idea.
"If Guerrero does get to free agency, the Mets and some Soto also-rans — including the Red Sox and Yankees — are logical pursuers," Heyman wrote. "If Guerrero once hated the Yankees — and he previously suggested half-seriously that he did; George Steinbrenner once changed his mind on a deal for his dad and signed Gary Sheffield instead — that’s long over. Word is, he holds nothing against the Yankees now. That’s worth knowing if the Jays don’t get this done."
This winter, the Mets, Red Sox, and Blue Jays joined the Yankees in pursuing Soto before the 26-year-old superstar ultimately inked a record-breaking 15-year, $765 million deal in Queens. With Pete Alonso’s return to New York looking increasingly unlikely and Triston Casas often mentioned in trade rumors, all three teams make sense as potential landing spots for Guerrero, who is set to enter his age-26 season.
Guerrero, who debuted in 2019, posted a .323/.396/.544 slash line with 30 home runs, 103 RBI, and just 96 strikeouts in 159 games last season. Over six years, he has accumulated 21.5 bWAR and has missed no more than six games in a season since 2020.
Defensively, Guerrero finished with -1 defensive runs saved and ranked slightly ahead of Ty France for the second-worst Outs Above Average (-10) among qualified first basemen, according to Statcast. He began his career at third base, where he has totaled -3 DRS in 928.1 innings, but won a Gold Glove at first base in 2022.
Spotrac estimates Guerrero’s market value at 12 years for $427 million, based on his age and elite offensive production. However, some believe that figure could climb to $500 million or more with a strong 2025 campaign and multiple deep-pocketed teams vying for his services.
On paper, Guerrero would form a fearsome one-two punch with two-time AL MVP Aaron Judge at the heart of the Yankees' lineup. He would also bring much-needed youth to an aging Yankees core that includes multiple stars in their mid-30s.
For now, the Yankees will rely on 37-year-old Goldschmidt to handle first base duties after dealing with back-to-back injury-riddled campaigns from Anthony Rizzo. The four-time Gold Glove winner and former NL MVP got off to a slow start last season but rebounded with a .799 OPS over his final 62 games.
If the Yankees cannot land Guerrero, they could still target a potential long-term answer at first base next winter. Record-breaking Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami announced that 2025 will be his final season in Nippon Professional Baseball before making the jump to MLB, and YES Network’s Michael Kay recently stated that the Yankees would love to add him to their roster.
