The New York Yankees have bounced back from their disappointing 2023 season and are in the driver’s seat for the American League East title. Since Aaron Judge arrived in 2017, the playoffs have been the source of disappointment for New York. The 2024 Yankees are close to putting away the Orioles, turning the fans’ focus to what could go wrong in the playoffs.
The disaster situation for the Yankees is choking away the American League East. While Fangraphs says that they have an 88.4% chance of winning the division. That means there is still an opportunity for them to give it away. The Orioles are coming to The Bronx for a three-game set starting on September 24.
Assuming the Yankees do finish off the AL East, the disaster scenario involves the Astros. While it is unlikely they will get through the American League playoffs without facing Houston, it is key to stay away from them as long as possible. The new playoff format has a path to avoid them until a fourth ALCS matchup.
Yankees must clinch one seed to stay away from Astros
The Aaron Judge era has been defined by losing to the Houston Astros. Their surprising 2017 season ended with a Game 7 defeat in the American League Championship series. After winning 103 games in 2019, they were clipped in six games on a Jose Altuve walk-off home run. A rapid decline in 2022 ended in a humiliating sweep, leading to Houston’s second title.
The Astros struggled at the beginning of the 2024 season, starting with a sweep at the hands of the Yankees. They were 14-25 through May 11, just two games better than the historically terrible White Sox for worst in the AL. Ever since, they have been the best team in the AL by four games, with a 67-44 record.
Their bad start has effectively eliminated them from the bye. The top two teams get a pass into the ALDS, and the Astros have just a 6.7% chance to do that, per Fangraphs. That means they will host the third Wild Card team and then play the number two seed in the ALDS.
The Yankees must get the number one seed to avoid a five-game set against the Astros. While it will bring up bad memories, they have a much better chance to win a longer series because of their pitching depth. It will also help the team look like they had a better season if they advance out of the ALDS. The Yankees take a half-game lead for the top seed over the Guardians into Tuesday’s action.
Astros provide a tough test in 2024
Even though the Yankees took six out of the seven games between the teams this season, the Astros are a tough test in 2024. They picked up Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline and he has shined. The veteran lefty is 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA in his eight starts with the Astros. The team is 8-0 in those starts.
The Yankees are 19-23 against left-handed pitching, the 18th-best in the league and worst among division leaders. Houston has Kikuchi and Framber Valdez at the top of their rotation which will give them fits. Josh Hader is also a lefty and comes out of the bullpen to close out games. The Yankees have a massive closer problem and Hader should dominate the lineup.
Both the Yankees and the Astros are different teams than the last time they met in May. While New York has been the better team this season, the Astros have an incredible playoff pedigree that includes dominating the Yankees.
The nightmare scenario for the Yankees is facing the Astros in the American League Division Series. If this season ends without advancing in the playoffs, it could spell the end of Aaron Boone’s tenure as the manager. If they lose in the ALCS, this regime might get another shot in 2025.
