The rookie centerfielder put on a show in LA
The Cubs continued their winning ways on the road taking two games of three from the National League West juggernaut Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. There were a lot of memorable performances. Former Dodgers came to play with Cody Bellinger unleashing on his former team, going 4-11 with two home runs and four walks. Michael Busch absolutely unloaded on his former team going 5-13 with two doubles and a home run. He was on base constantly and contributed four runs and four RBI over three games.
But the real rookie who starred in the Cubs trip to Hollywood was Pete Crow-Armstrong, who put on a display at the plate going 5-for-11 while also putting on an absolute clinic in centerfield. Admit it, you’d like to see some of those highlights again:
The broadcast was effusive, as they should be. We’ve all watched Pete Crow-Armstrong grow and thrive defensively this season. I personally haven’t felt this good about a Cubs center fielder since Reed Johnson was out there (someone is already firing up something about Albert Almora Jr. in the comments, and no, diving a lot does not mean you cover a lot of ground). So it had me wondering, where exactly does PCA’s defense rank this year relative to the rest of the league?
To determine this I decided to look at both Outs Above Average and the Catch Probability Leaderboard via Statcast at Baseball Savant. Below you can see the top 20 outfielders, and the percentage of great catches they are making, differentiated by difficulty:
Top 20 outfielders by OAA w/ catch difficulty
| Player | OAA | 5 Star Out | 5 Star Opp | 5 Star % | 4 Star Out | 4 Star Opp | 4 Star % | 3 Star Out | 3 Star Opp | 3 Star % | 2 Star Out | 2 Star Opp | 2 Star % | 1 Star Out | 1 Star Opp | 1 Star % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young, Jacob | 20 | 7 | 17 | 41.2 | 15 | 20 | 75 | 16 | 17 | 94.1 | 22 | 24 | 91.7 | 29 | 29 | 100 |
| Varsho, Daulton | 16 | 5 | 25 | 20 | 8 | 11 | 72.7 | 16 | 20 | 80 | 25 | 26 | 96.2 | 36 | 36 | 100 |
| Siri, Jose | 16 | 5 | 10 | 50 | 13 | 20 | 65 | 19 | 23 | 82.6 | 15 | 15 | 100 | 20 | 22 | 90.9 |
| Siani, Michael | 15 | 4 | 12 | 33.3 | 7 | 7 | 100 | 16 | 18 | 88.9 | 14 | 14 | 100 | 19 | 19 | 100 |
| Doyle, Brenton | 13 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 62.5 | 22 | 25 | 88 | 29 | 30 | 96.7 | 33 | 33 | 100 |
| Meyers, Jake | 13 | 1 | 11 | 9.1 | 8 | 12 | 66.7 | 13 | 14 | 92.9 | 19 | 19 | 100 | 25 | 25 | 100 |
| Crow-Armstrong, Pete | 12 | 7 | 16 | 43.8 | 8 | 10 | 80 | 11 | 16 | 68.8 | 20 | 21 | 95.2 | 16 | 17 | 94.1 |
| Taylor, Michael A. | 11 | 2 | 11 | 18.2 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 16 | 17 | 94.1 | 16 | 16 | 100 | 18 | 18 | 100 |
| Kiermaier, Kevin | 11 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 81.8 | 13 | 14 | 92.9 | 20 | 21 | 95.2 | 18 | 19 | 94.7 |
| Cowser, Colton | 11 | 3 | 18 | 16.7 | 9 | 13 | 69.2 | 5 | 7 | 71.4 | 20 | 21 | 95.2 | 23 | 23 | 100 |
| Isbel, Kyle | 10 | 5 | 23 | 21.7 | 8 | 14 | 57.1 | 9 | 12 | 75 | 20 | 21 | 95.2 | 21 | 21 | 100 |
| Perkins, Blake | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 53.8 | 17 | 19 | 89.5 | 18 | 19 | 94.7 | 19 | 19 | 100 |
| Duran, Jarren | 9 | 2 | 17 | 11.8 | 6 | 8 | 75 | 15 | 19 | 78.9 | 20 | 23 | 87 | 32 | 32 | 100 |
| Bader, Harrison | 9 | 1 | 14 | 7.1 | 7 | 7 | 100 | 11 | 13 | 84.6 | 22 | 23 | 95.7 | 16 | 16 | 100 |
| Rodríguez, Julio | 8 | 4 | 19 | 21.1 | 3 | 8 | 37.5 | 17 | 20 | 85 | 17 | 17 | 100 | 18 | 18 | 100 |
| Rojas, Johan | 8 | 5 | 16 | 31.3 | 7 | 10 | 70 | 10 | 14 | 71.4 | 10 | 10 | 100 | 16 | 17 | 94.1 |
| Carroll, Corbin | 7 | 2 | 26 | 7.7 | 11 | 21 | 52.4 | 17 | 22 | 77.3 | 20 | 22 | 90.9 | 27 | 29 | 93.1 |
| Merrill, Jackson | 7 | 2 | 17 | 11.8 | 6 | 10 | 60 | 10 | 13 | 76.9 | 22 | 23 | 95.7 | 29 | 30 | 96.7 |
| DeLuca, Jonny | 7 | 1 | 9 | 11.1 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 8 | 10 | 80 | 15 | 15 | 100 | 19 | 19 | 100 |
| Harris II, Michael | 7 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 75 | 10 | 11 | 90.9 | 22 | 24 | 91.7 | 13 | 14 | 92.9 |
First of all, hat tip to Jacob Young of the Nationals who has been unbelievable in center field this year. Twenty OAA is a lot by any metric and truly eyepopping at the top of this leaderboard. Although, a bit more digging indicates that he racked up those numbers during 134 games whereas PCA has tallied his 11 OAA in just 107 games.
In fact, at 107 games PCA has substantially less playing time than every outfielder ahead of him on the list except Cardinals outfielder Michael Siani who has only played in 109 games. I can already see the “which centerfielder is best in the National League” rivalry between the Cubs and Cardinals heating up for years to come.
One other note in this data that definitely matches my eye-test. PCA has some considerable room to grow here in the three-star catch range, ie, the plays that are made like 51-75 percent of the time. While he’s basically unbelievable in the lower-probability catch range, there are times when a play looks more routine that he doesn’t quite make the play.
Either way it’s been fun to watch a 22-year-old Cubs centerfielder absolutely shine in centerfield. I can’t wait to see what he brings to the cavernous outfield at Coors starting Friday night in Denver.
