One thing about Zac Taylor is his composure in front of the press is unmatched. Through the highs and lows of his six-year tenure as head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, no players have ever been thrown under the bus, no fingers have ever been pointed at any other direction that back at him. He's stayed the course through thick and thin, and it's led to some of the best moments in franchise history.
Taylor's style of management works when belief is reciprocated up and down, and that comes from the backing of results. Five playoff wins in a span of two years after a combined six wins from the previous two years are very positive results. When that success isn't sustained and more time passes, belief stops being reciprocated and it's nearly impossible to gain it back without shifting things.
If you haven't watched the Bengals at all this year, I just described exactly what they're going through right now.
The Bengals are 4-7 at the bye week with a +1 point differential. Six of their seven losses have been by a single possession, and only one of their wins have been the same. They've been defeated by every team they've faced with a winning record, and have won just one of their three primetime games.
Worst of all, quarterback Joe Burrow, wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, and edge defender Trey Hendrickson are all having arguably the best seasons of their respective careers; seasons that will mean nothing if the postseason begins without them in it.
The stress is weighing on all three of the Bengals' elite players. Burrow's body language looks more and more dejected after every loss. Chase's criticism of Taylor's playcalling is getting louder. Hendrickson went as far as to swat away Taylor's arm during a verbal altercation on the sideline during Sunday night's loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The pillars of the Bengals' locker room know what's happening. The season has gotten away from them, and every close loss stings worse than the last. Making the playoffs has about an 18% chance of happening according to The Athletic's model. The fat lady isn't singing, but she's very much warmed up for her number.
Now no head coach with his own job security to worry about is going to admit surrender in these circumstances, but what he says without saying that absolutely matters. When his top players are wearing their emotions on their sleeves, the messaging from their leader needs to reflect that or else he looks hopelessly on the wrong page.
And that's what Taylor sounded like when asked this week about any potential major changes happening during the bye week.
“I think we all watch the game. We can see it's just coming down to one play in every single game,” Taylor said after the loss in L.A. “So why would you make a big wholesale change when it's just coming down one play? To me, that's just panic. That's not what we're about. We believe in what we're doing. We’re not going to be those people that just panic because the record is 4-7 and we start making all these significant changes. That's not what the answer is.”
There's a definite argument to be had about how much close games matter. Teams who fall well under .500 in one-score bouts one year typically win more games overall the next.
Context of how those losses transpired also matter, and if there are consistent themes that lead to them, bad luck and everything "coming down to one play" doesn't quite cut it.
Taylor's players know the close losses can't just be chalked up to bad luck. A defense that's allowed an average of 32.4 points per loss is a glaring red flag. An offensive line that has allowed Burrow to be hit a whopping 25 times and hurried a total of 94 times (both are bottom-six ranks in the NFL per Pro Football Focus) is a glaring red flag. A rushing attack that poses the third-worst success rate at 33.8% is a glaring, red, flag.
The Bengals have major problems that require major changes, or at the very least tangible accountability. It starts with Taylor recognizing it and not just sticking to the status quo at a time when change usually occurs for struggling teams. If nothing changes during the bye, why should his player's demeanor improve? Why should belief be restored? Why should they care?
There's a stability you feel when the head of operations stays levelheaded in such a high-stakes environment. It legitimizes confidence when everything is going the way it's supposed to go. You can look at 2021-22 for that exact proof.
But when things are clearly headed in the other direction, the messaging can become stale. That's where the Bengals are with Taylor right now, even if he doesn't realize it.
