Whenever a player has a massive rookie season, there is always a fear that he could suffer from the dreaded sophomore slump in year two. Especially when it comes to quarterbacks. We have seen this play out as recently as last season, when we saw Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud go from the QB10 overall in points per game and QB11 overall as a rookie in 2023 to QB31 overall in points per game and the QB18 overall in 2024.
This year, all eyes are on Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels after an incredible rookie season. As a rookie, he threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, and added an additional 891 yards and six TDs on the ground. That was enough for him to finish as the QB5 overall. This year, he's being drafted even higher than that as the QB3 overall.
No need to worry about Daniels having a sophomore slump, because he's not going to. He will once again be a high-end QB1 this season. There are a number of reasons why.
Daniels is an Elite Prospect
Daniels is a much better NFL prospect than a guy like Stroud was. There was no fluke when it came to his rookie season. I graded Daniels out as the best quarterback prospect since Trevor Lawrence. It was always a mistake that Caleb Williams was drafted ahead of him in the 2024 NFL Draft, and he will continually prove why throughout his career. We are confident that Daniels is the real deal.
Daniels' Rushing Floor
Even if Daniels takes a step back as a passer, which we don't expect, his rushing ability gives him a safe fantasy floor. Most quarterbacks would be at risk of a steep decline if they lost their weapons or if they were matched up against an elite secondary. That's not the case for Daniels, who has the upside to be a 1,000-yard rusher and push double-digit rushing touchdowns. Because of this, even if he does take a step back, his fantasy value won't fall all that far.
We are seeing a terrible passer like Justin Fields being drafted as a QB1 this season despite being in a terrible New York Jets offense. Daniels is an infinitely better passer in a better offense, and only once in four years has Fields been able to match Daniels' rushing production from last season. You get the high floor and high ceiling with Daniels that we only see with elite fantasy options like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts.
Commanders Improved Offense
Assuming that the Commanders get things figured out with Terry McLaurin and his contract situation, Daniels should have a better supporting cast this season. The offensive line should be much improved after the team traded for left tackle Laremy Tunsil this offseason and drafted right tackle Josh Conerly Jr in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
The team also added Deebo Samuel as another weapon for Daniels to get the ball to who can make something out of nothing. The situation has vastly improved which makes it more likely than not that Daniels gets better and not worse in his second season.