3 keys to a Bills victory vs. the 49ers in Week 13

The Buffalo Bills will play the San Francisco 49ers at home at Highmark Stadium on "Sunday Night Football" in Week 13.

The Bills (9-2) are looking to build on a six-game win streak, while the 49ers (5-6) have lost their last two.

Buffalo is favored to win by seven points on Sunday night. The two teams haven't met since 2020, when the Bills won on the road, 34-24.

Even though the Bills are favored and the Niners have struggled lately, they were still the NFC champions last year for a reason and they are a well-rounded team even though the wins haven't shown up consistently.

The Bills will need to execute their game plan to pick up their tenth win of the year.

With that, here are three keys to a Bills win in Week 13:

Run the rock

The 49ers have very few holes on their team, but if there is one area they need to improve upon it is their run defense. They rank 21st in the NFL in defense rushing DVOA.

The Bills are at their best when they have a balanced attack on offense, and I'd expect James Cook and company to get plenty of work. Last week, the Bills dominated the Chiefs in time of possession with quick passes and third-down conversions. This week, they should aim to do the same, but with more of a "pound the rock" approach.

Limit explosive runs

While San Francisco ranks just 13th in the league in points per game (23.6), they rank an impressive fourth in the league in yards per game (384.5). A big reason why they rack up so many offensive yards is their ability to perform explosive plays in the run game.

The Niners' offense ranks third in the NFL in 10+ yard runs, while the Bills' defense allows the second-most 10+ yard runs. This will be a test for the Bills. If they can have sound tackling and limit big running lanes, it will help their chances immensely on Sunday night.

Move the chains on third down

Last week, the Bills were 9-of-15 (60%) on third downs in the win over Kansas City. Their ability to extend drives is what led them to a win. On paper, they'll have an opportunity to do the same this week.

Although the Niners rank in the top ten in both rushing and passing defense, they have been leaky on third downs. Their 43.7% third-down rate ranks 26th in the NFL. Josh Allen and the Bills offense, albeit with some injuries to pass catchers, should be able to move the sticks when necessary.