This year's Falcons team has fell way short of expectations.
It was supposed to be a much different season for the Atlanta Falcons. Yet, after 13 games, they find themselves in the exact same position as last year: sitting at 6-7 and in the midst of a division battle in the lowly NFC South.
The Falcons team that won five of six games and swept their division in early November has vanished. Maybe those games were the result of luck, or maybe they were fool’s gold. Whatever the case, that version of the Falcons hasn’t resurfaced during their current four-game skid. The latest evidence came in a 42-21 drubbing by the Minnesota Vikings.
Even though Atlanta is just a win or two away from reclaiming the division lead and earning one of the top seven seeds in the NFC playoff picture, this is not a team built for the postseason.
The Falcons don’t have a reliable quarterback
Kirk Cousins started the season poorly with a Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers but seemed to find his rhythm as the weeks progressed. He kept the Falcons in games and even led a few fourth-quarter drives to secure wins. However, his recent play has been dreadful, sparking calls for head coach Raheem Morris to bench him in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr., the No. 8 overall pick.
Cousins hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his last four games, tossing eight interceptions in that span. His passer rating over the last four weeks has plummeted to 63.5, and he now leads the NFL in turnovers with 17.
This is far from what the Falcons envisioned when they signed Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal.
Quarterback issues have plagued Atlanta since Matt Ryan’s departure. However, when Ryan was traded to the Indianapolis Colts, the Falcons didn’t have the same offensive talent they do now, with stars like Bijan Robinson and Drake London in the fold.
As for starting Penix, the notion is becoming more realistic. But how reliable is a rookie quarterback who has barely seen an NFL field, much less started? This is the downside of the Falcons’ decision to both sign Cousins and draft Penix in the first round. At the first sign of trouble, calls for the rookie were inevitable.
While Cousins is underperforming, he offers a known quantity, unlike Penix, who remains an unproven wild card. Either way, there’s no certainty at the most important position for the Falcons this season, leaving the team in an unenviable situation.
The Falcons defense is nowhere near playoff-caliber
Cousins has undoubtedly put the team in precarious situations that have hindered their overall performance, especially on the defensive side. However, that doesn’t change the fact that Atlanta’s defense is nowhere near capable of handling itself in the postseason.
The Falcons' defense currently ranks 23rd in total defense, allowing 349.8 yards per game, according to Pro Football Reference's stats. They sit 25th in passing defense, 17th in rushing defense, and 25th in scoring defense, surrendering 25.6 points per game. In critical areas, they rank 24th in red-zone defense (61.9%) and 30th on third downs (46.3%). Most alarmingly, they are the worst team in the league in sacks, with only 19 on the season.
While injuries have certainly played a role in the unit's struggles, it’s hard to ignore that the overall talent level was lacking to begin with. That combination of factors leaves this defense ill-equipped to compete at a playoff level.
The Falcons have played the worst against the best teams
When Atlanta was on its best stretch of the season, the level of competition wasn’t exactly top-tier. Of their six wins this season, the Falcons have only beaten three teams with winning records, two of which are division leaders.
One of those wins came in Week 2 on Monday Night Football against the Eagles, a game practically handed to them due to coaching blunders by Philadelphia. The other two wins were against division rival Tampa Bay, which does give Atlanta the tiebreaker in the NFC South, should it come to that.
However, when you examine the Falcons’ losses, the disparity in competition is staggering. Atlanta has fallen to some of the best teams in the league: the Steelers, Chiefs, and Seahawks—all leading their respective divisions. Additionally, they’ve lost to the Vikings, Chargers, and Broncos, all of whom are currently playoff contenders. Atlanta’s lone loss to a team with a losing record came against the 5-8 Saints, who were playing under an interim coach in his first game.
The loss to the Saints is certainly a bad one. But if the Falcons can’t manage to beat playoff-caliber teams, how can they realistically be considered a playoff contender themselves?
