5 Keys to a Colts Victory Over Bills

The Indianapolis Colts are 4-5 heading into a daunting defense of Lucas Oil Stadium against the 7-2 Buffalo Bills. With a lot at stake for Indy in this game and pressure mounting for a win against a red-hot Bills team, here are the five keys to getting it done on Sunday afternoon for the Colts.

Force Josh Allen into Mistakes

Bills superstar signal-caller Josh Allen has shown a propensity to throw incompletions and interceptions throughout his illustrious seven-year, two-time Pro Bowl career. However, 2024 hasn't been the case for Allen. This year he's playing on a Herculean level of efficiency with 168/262 completions for 2,001 passing yards, 17 touchdown tosses to 2 interceptions. He's also tacked on 47 carries for 211 rushing yards, 22 first downs and 3 rushing touchdowns. In short, Allen is incredible as a quarterback.

What this means is the Colts have to provide consistent pressure in the trenches and eyes on the QB given his abilities running. While Allen may not have Stefon Diggs anymore, Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman make up more than enough for the MVP candidate to distribute the football effectively. The Colts will have their hands full in forcing Allen into mistakes, but it's documented that it can happen, giving Gus Bradley added motivation to continue his recent hot streak as Indy's defensive coordinator.

Bounce Back Game for Jonathan Taylor

Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has provided the most consistent offense for Shane Steichen outside of wide receiver Josh Downs. However, in week nine's debacle loss against the Minnesota Vikings, Taylor fell flat as a runner, arguably being the biggest reason Joe Flacco and Co. couldn't move the football with gusto. The former Wisconsin Badger concluded poorly with 13 carries for 48 rushing yards (3.7 average), and no scores.

Now that Anthony Richardson is benched, Steichen will need to get more creative with his run schemes to jar Taylor loose, putting him into more 1-on-1 situations to take advantage of. Taylor's X-Factor is one-cut, unrelenting speed and power, so the play calls, blocking, and Flacco must improve to help the former All-Pro. It can't be stressed enough that Taylor's 2024 has a lower ceiling with a pocket-passing QB under center rather than an athletic field general who makes defenses questions their every read, regardless of prep. We'll see what Steichen can do against the Bills' defense.

Interior Pressure

If the Colts want any chance at stopping Allen, they'll need a big performance from Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner. However, it won't be easy, as Allen hasn't been put on the turf often, sustaining just 11 sacks through 9 games started. Luckily, Stewart and Buckner are healthy and coming off a strong performance against the Vikings. Buckner finished with 6 tackles and a sack while Stewart erupted, concluding with 2.0 sacks, 4 tackles (1 for loss), and a fumble forced for a Kenny Moore defensive TD.

Allen is the toughest QB test so far for this Colts' defense, so it won't be on Stewart and Buckner solely to produce. Defensive ends Kwity Paye, Laiatu Latu, and Dayo Odeyingbo will be integral in keeping Allen as contained as possible. However, there's something to be said about defensive pressure in the face of any QB. If the Colts can get the best out of Stewart and Buckner against Allen, there's a chance they can shock the Bills and limit their offensive charge.

Contain Shakir and Kincaid

While the Bills did recently acquire Cooper, he's only been in Buffalo for a very short time. However, he's already found the endzone and has snagged 5 catches for 69 receiving yards. But, so far in 2024 it's been the duo of wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid that have led the receiving charge for the Bills. Starting with Shakir, the third-year pro leads Buffalo with 42 catches for 471 receiving yards (11.2 average), and 2 touchdowns.

Tight end Kincaid is not far behind Shakir with 32 catches for 332 receiving yards (10.4 average), and 2 receiving touchdowns. While the Bills also have the deep threat Coleman, it's Shakir and Kincaid that the Colts' coverage must worry about most. Players like Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Kenny Moore II, and Sam Womack III will be paramount in sticking with these two Bills playmakers.

Joe Flacco Must Be Better

The Colts benched Richardson for Flacco because it gave them 'the best chance to win now.' While Steichen took a lot of blame for the recent primetime loss, it's Flacco that was under center, not Indy's frontman. Flacco looked aged, immobile, and behind the adjustments from the defense when he faced the Vikings. After looking solid in previous starts, Flacco had a big setback performance, finishing 16/27 for 179 passing yards, 0 touchdowns and an interception.

Flacco was also sacked 3 times and appeared rushed into bad throws that are otherwise routine for an NFL QB. The differences between a Richardson and Flacco-led offense are night and day, but Flacco is more efficient, calculated, and experienced. If weapons like Downs, AD Mitchell, and Alec Pierce can make plays and help get Flacco into rhythm, it will open up the rest of Steichen's offense to compete with Allen on the other sideline.