Heading into the bye week the Falcons sit at 6-5
The Atlanta Falcons sit at 6-5 and two games ahead of the Buccaneers for first place in the division, but the product shown on the field the last two weeks does not leave much optimism for fans to indulge in. Luckily the Falcons head into Week 12 with a bye, and have two weeks to get healthy, and they really need it.
Through 11 games there's been a lot of good, but there has also been a lot of bad. It's been a very up-and-down season, let's take a look back at the season thus far.
Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins' discourse is all over the place. He currently has 2,807 yards, 17 touchdowns, nine interceptions, a 68.1%, and a 96.6 passer rating. He is third in yards, seventh in touchdowns, 10th in completion percentage, and 13th in passer rating. He's been good, but it hasn't all been good. Only four quarterbacks in the NFL have more interceptions than him this season, and his 11 total turnovers are tied for third-most in the NFL.
Cousins has gained a reputation in the NFL for playing his best football in October, a month that has since been christened "Kirktober", and Kirktober 2024 certainly lived up to its hype. Kirk registered 10 touchdowns, 1,242 yards, just three interceptions, a 71.1 comp%, and a 109.0 passer rating as the Falcons went 3-1.
Since that span Cousins has thrown just three touchdowns (in three games) and two interceptions. However, it would be disingenuous to say Cousins has been flat-out bad. He's had two nasty interceptions in the last two games, the one against the Saints essentially losing the game, but outside of those throws he has not been bad.
Against the Saints, he threw some beautiful balls. Midway through the 2nd quarter Cousins took a snap from the Saints' 33-yard line. He fakes the hand-off to Tyler Allgeier, and then stands tall in a collapsing pocket. He throws a beauty of a ball to Darnell Mooney who has Alontae Taylor draped all over him. He puts the ball in the perfect spot for Mooney, and it goes for a 32-yard strike. This is why counting stats are not the be-all, end-all because Cousins was one yard shy of a touchdown, which Bijan Robinson ended up running in four plays later.
Later in that same game, Cousins threw an absolute dime of a ball for Kyle Pitts on a third-and-long where Pitts mossed Alontae Taylor and came down with the ball.
Against the Broncos prior to the interception Cousins started the game 15/16 passing. The Falcons first drive stalled out due to penalties (something the Falcons really need to address going forward). On the second drive Cousins had a beautiful tear-drop pass to Bijan Robinson on third-and-long which perfectly fell into his hands. Later in the game Cousins threw a perfect strike on 4th down to Drake London for a huge gain.
Kirk Cousins overall has played more good football than he has bad. He is not the problem nor the reason the Falcons have dropped the last two games. Heading into the last seven games of the season, Falcons fans should still trust Cousins' ability to win enough games to win the NFC South.
Play-Calling
Similar to the quarterback play the play-calling has been very up-and-down.
Outside of the horrendous showing in Week 1, Zac Robinson has been a solid to good signal caller. Falcons fans need to keep in mind this is just his first year calling plays, so there will be a lot of things Robinson is still getting adjusted to.
Early in the season, it was clear that Robinson was learning from each game, specifically each loss. After Week 1 where Cousins operated primarily out of the pistol, Robinson had him under center on the first play of the game. The Falcons also utilized play-action, something they did not do a single time in the first game of the season.
In Week 3 he tried forcing the ball to Bijan Robinson who had under 2 yards per carry against the Chiefs. This ultimately cost the Falcons the game as they ran an outside run on a 4th and short which the Chiefs stopped easily.
In Week 4 Bijan Robinson was not getting much against the Saints, so he switched to using Tyler Allgeier in the 4th quarter and it ended up working.
Weeks 5-6 the Falcons offense was humming, averaging 37 points per game. Since Week 6 the play-calling has been up-and-down, but there has been a lot more good than bad. For example, the 4th down play-call against the Cowboys which led to a wide-open Darnell Mooney touchdown was a brilliant play-call.
The issue is Robinson's insistence on calling screens. He calls them far too often and more often than not it simply does not work out.
In 11 games this season the Falcons have scored 30+ three times, in 54 games under Arthur Smith the Falcons scored 30+ three times and one of those occurred in Week 18 against a Buccaneers team that did not play their starters the entire second half. Robinson has also utilized his weapons better than Smith ever could. The Falcons have five players with 450+ yards from scrimmage (Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Kyle Pitts) most in the NFL. Even the Lions have not done that this season and they currently have arguably the best offense in football.
Fade out the WR bubble screens and this play-calling is good. One huge issue is that a lot of times drives stall out due to the Falcons' penalties. In the Falcons' first matchup against the Saints, they scored 0 offensive touchdowns, however, Bijan Robinson had a screen which he took to the house which was called back due to a holding call. Similarly, in that same game, the Falcons were lined up to go for a 4th-and-1 which they did not get to attempt due to a false start.
The Falcons have 65 offensive penalties thus far, which is in the upper half of the league. Definitely something Raheem Morris and company will want to clean up coming out of the bye week.
Historically terrible pass-rush
If it was all good, the Falcons would be 11-0, which unfortunately they are not. In 2015 the Atlanta Falcons pass-rush was anemic, registering 19 sacks in 16 games. This year the Falcons have 10 sacks in 11 games, which is on pace for 15 sacks. That is four fewer than the 2015 showing with an extra game.
In fact the Atlanta Falcons pass-rush is so horrendous they actually broke a record.
Defenses that failed to get 10 sacks in the first 10 games of the season in the Super Bowl era:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 13, 2024
2024 Atlanta Falcons
If the Falcons were at least getting pressure it would be fine, but the Falcons are last in pressure rate too. The defensive line is just generating absolutely nothing, which leads to showings like Sunday where Bo Nix has time to stand in the pocket and find the wide-open wide receiver, or why the Sunday prior to that MVS had time to toast the secondary deep.
Matthew Judon has 2.5 sacks thus far and has been a major league disappointment. He has just 15 pressures and 11 hurries on the season. Funnily enough Matthew Judon has a higher PFF grade on coverage (56.0) than as a pass rusher (53.0). Unfortunately, the Falcons did not trade a third to the Patriots for Judon to be a better defender than pass rusher.
Matthew Judon isn't even top three on the team in pressures. Kaden Ellis (22), Arnold Ebiketie (20), and Grady Jarrett (18) all have more. Outside of that, no one on the team has more than 11 pressures.
Barring Matthew Judon turning back the clock and returning to all-pro from following the bye, or unorthodox break-out seasons from Zach Harrison and/or Arnold Ebiketie this Falcons pass-rush is doomed post-bye week.
The only saving grace is that besides the Commanders (ranked #3) and Panthers (#10), the Falcons don't face any other top 15 offensive lines as ranked by PFF. They will go against the Chargers (#17), Vikings (#20), Raiders (#27), and Giants (#25). If Jimmy Lake dials up the blitzes maybe the Falcons pass-rush can get 1-2 sacks against those teams as they look to make a push for the playoffs.
Overall, the Falcons need to make some serious moves in the off-season to add pass-rushing help. Jalon Walker from Georgia would certainly look great in Atlanta.
Questionable Secondary
The Atlanta Falcons did not add anything to their secondary this off-season outside of Justin Simmons. Unfortunately, Simmons is showing why he was still not signed going into August.
Over the last four weeks, Justin Simmons has been targeted 13 times. Nine of those targets have gone for completions. Those nine completions have resulted in 184 yards and a touchdown, the touchdown coming at the hands of Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Simmons was touted as a ball-hawk coming into the season and he has just one interception all year.
Similarly, Dee Alford has not been very good this year. Against Dallas, he was targeted 13 times and gave up eight receptions. If a corner is targeted 13 times in one game that is not a very good sign to say the least. He has played 10 games this season and has been targeted seven or more times in six of those games. Last season he struggled with missing tackles (that Josh Dobbs broken sack comes to mind) this year he already has four more missed tackles than he did last season and his missed tackle% has jumped from 14.3% to 17.7%.
Clark Phillips was bad against the Saints. He was targeted five times and gave up four catches for 91 yards. However, in his other 10 games combined, he's only given up 92 yards total. He's had three games where he gave up 0 yards, albeit in limited snaps. The issue with Clark is that he is undersized, but if the secondary is fully healthy, he can be a great nickel corner going forward.
Mike Hughes has been a pleasant surprise and has been a solid corner all season long. He has only given up 91 yards in his last three games combined.
Aj Terrell has been Aj Terrell. Last Sunday he got mossed by Courtland Sutton for a 20+ yard gain, but outside of that he only gave up four yards. That is the story of his career. He will lock up wide receivers for most of the day, then give up a big gain. He's been quietly good, giving up under 30 yards in six of 11 games, and under 50 in nine of 11. He also has two interceptions, both in critical moments of the game.
Jessie Bates has been elite. He's proven that he is the best safety in the NFL. The two times the ball went near him on Sunday, he made plays, punching the ball out both times. He has three games this season where he has given up 0 yards, six where he has given up less than 10, and has only given up one touchdown on the season. The fact he is doing all this with no help from his pass-rush makes it even more impressive.
Fully healthy, this secondary is good enough to get the Atlanta Falcons a playoff berth. However, projecting into 2025 the Falcons will need to look for a safety in the draft because Justin Simmons should not get resigned. Also, cornerback depth is razor thin, so corners should also be a priority.
Injuries piling up
This season the Falcons have lost: Drew Dalman, Troy Anderson, Nate Landman, Dee Alford, and Mike Hughes all of whom are contributing starters. They have also lost JD Bertrand, Charlie Woerner, and Ta'Quon Graham. All the defensive line injuries hurt considering the Falcons' defensive line has been getting killed by the run all season long. Along with that, Darnell Mooney has been struggling with hamstring issues the last two games, and Drake London had the hip flexor two games ago.
This bye-week could not have come at a better time for the Falcons. Hopefully after the bye week Mike Hughes and Dee Alford are good to go, as the CB Depth behind them on this team is so weak, and it was exposed against the Broncos on Sunday.
Rest of the Season Outlook
As things stand now, this Falcons team does not look very good. However, with two weeks off and players returning from injury they should be better than they've looked the last few weeks.
After a crushing Week 1 loss, the Falcons came out and beat a very good Eagles team, hopefully they do the same against the Chargers.
If the Falcons go 3-3 that should be enough to lock up the division, unless the Buccaneers end up going 7-0. All of the Falcons last six games are winnable, it is just a matter of whether they can go out and execute.
3-3, and 9-8 seems likely for the Falcons, and hopefully that is enough to lock up the South.
