On Sunday, the fine folks over at Pro Hockey Rumors posted a list of NHL players that will see their no-trade and no-movement clauses change or kick in on July 1st. On the list were three Tampa Bay Lightning players. First of all, it’s kind of surprising that there were three players who didn’t already have a no-movement or no-trade clauses on this team given the ease at which Julien BriseBois seems to hand them out. Second, let’s take a little deeper look at the three players to see if their impending NTC’s will affect where they will receive their mail at next season.
Before we get to the players, another reminder that no-trade clauses are a part of doing the business of hockey in the tax-free state of Florida. They are the other side of the coin that comes with contracts that might be larger if the player signed them in other markets. A NTC gives the player a little control over where the Lightning might trade him so that he isn’t just shipped off to a market where the cost of living cuts the value of his contract in half. With a NTC they at least have a little bit of input.
Also, a NTC, modified or not, doesn’t mean a player won’t get traded. It just means that if they do move, it’s to a market that they, at least on some level, are okay with. No-trade clauses are waived all of the time, in fact, we just saw one waived a few weeks ago when Ryan McDonagh was traded to the Lightning. It just makes things a little more difficult for a general manager.
Alright, let’s get to the good stuff. First of all, no one on the Lightning has a new no-movement clause starting on July 1st. A NMC prevents a GM from trading a player without his say as well putting him on waivers, sending him to the minors, or exposing them in an expansion draft. As of right now there are only two players on the Lightning with existing NMC’s – Brayden Point and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the three players that have their new no-trade clauses start next Monday:
Mikhail Sergachev – He is in the 2nd year of an 8-year deal with a cap hit of $8.5 million. On July 1, a full NTC starts that goes until July 1, 2027 when it becomes a 16-team M-NTC.
Erik Cernak – He is also in the 2nd year of an 8-year deal with a cap hit of $5.2 million. On July 1, he also gets a full NTC that runs until July 1, 2027 and then becomes a 16-team M-NTC.
Tanner Jeannot – It’s the 2nd year of a 2-year deal with a cap hit of $2.65 million for the forward. In a week he’ll submit a list of 16 teams he can’t be traded to. Well, he’s probably already submitted it, but it officially starts on July 1.
Of the three names listed above, Jeannot is the one that has seen his name pop up in the rumor mill the most (The Athletic has him ranked 8th on their big board). With the Lightning crunched up against the cap, extracting his $2.65 million from the equation is quite intriguing, and, if the scuttlebutt is to be believed, there is some interest by other teams in acquiring the big fella.
Now, if there is a team Mr. BriseBois is chatting with that appears on Jeannot’s no-trade list, there could be a sense of urgency to finalize the deal prior to the start of the new league year. That should add some intrigue to the draft this weekend. While a Jeannot deal wouldn’t reap what JBB sowed in acquiring the forward, it should bring back a decent pick or two.
Moving on to the defenders. If Erik Cernak’s contract was four years shorter, he would be a lot higher on some of these off-season trade boards. The cap hit isn’t outlandish at $5.2 million considering he can play top-four minutes and has a lot of qualities coaches love in their defensemen. The overarching problem is that GMs can be squeamish about picking up a player that has missed 10+ games in each of the last two seasons due to injuries. That’s not something that is going to age well as the 27-year-old heads into his 30s.
Chances are the length of his deal will be more of a deterrent than any type of no-trade clause.
So now we move on to Mikhail Sergachev. Before we go any farther in this discussion I’ll admit that I don’t want to see Sergy go anywhere. I believe he is a cornerstone of the defense now and moving forward. He showed that he could be a number one blueliner in 2022-23 and while an injury derailed an up-and-down 2023-24, he is set to return to form next year.
That being said, a Mikhail Sergachev deal would be really, really interesting. Outside of Point or Nikita Kucherov, there may not be a player on the roster that would bring back a bigger haul of assets than Sergachev. Think of what he offers to a GM looking for immediate impact on the blue line.
In a summer where the free agent pool isn’t that deep on defense, the 25-year-old, two-time Stanley Cup winning, 257-point accruing Russian could jump to the top of a lot of defensive rotations. While his $8.5 million cap hit isn’t pocket change, it’s not even in the top-10 in the league right now, and will only move further down the list as time rolls on.
With McDonagh back in the fold, the Lightning could, at least theoretically, deal from a position of strength on the left side of the defense. With Victor Hedman on the first pairing, McDonagh on the second, they could find either an internal solution for the third pair (Emil Lilleberg, Declan Carlille, Nick Perbix on his off-side) or have the money to sign a free agent.
Moving Sergachev would definitely fill the “everything is on the table” portion of Mr. BriseBois’ end of the season speech.
That being said, trading him wouldn’t fit the other key point of what JBB wants to do, which is make the Lightning a better team. Yes, they can fill Sergachev’s spot on the roster, but they wouldn’t be able to fill what he does on the ice.
While it’s always fun to hypothesize about franchise-altering deals, they rarely happen (and if they do, pesky things like NTC’s rarely affect them). So, it’s unlikely that next Monday’s deadline is going to alter Mr. BriseBois’ plans all that much.
