Are the Leafs' defensemen good enough to contend for Stanley Cup?

During the Core Four Era, it is no secret that that the Toronto Maple Leafs were an offensively dynamic team. They have averaged more than three goals per game every single season since the 2016-17 season, ranking top-ten in that category, while they only found themselves top-ten in goals against three times.

Since last offseason, Toronto has built a strong blue line adding the likes of Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Brandon Carlo. This helped lead to Toronto's deepest playoff run since 2002. Besides Jani Hakanpaa, every defenseman on the roster is under contract through the 2026-27 season. Toronto could head into next season with the same defensive core, but is it good enough to win a Stanley Cup? If not, what do the Leafs need to do to polish off their blue line?

What they have

At the end of last season, the Maple Leafs had Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev on the first pairing, Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo in the middle pair, along with Simon Benoit and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  McCabe and Tanev emerged as a shutdown pairing for the Leafs, combining for a plus/minus of +54.  

When the Maple Leafs acquired Brandon Carlo at the trade deadline, it appeared to end the years long search for a partner of the longest tenured Maple Leaf.  Carlo’s defensive style allows Rielly to feel more comfortable in his offensive role. 

Benoit brought strong defense and grit to the third pairing alongside Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s two-way style.  Toronto’s depth on the blue line is stronger than it has been in previous seasons, but it still leaves room for improvement if you want a Stanley Cup winning roster.

What they lack

While every defenseman on the Maple Leafs contributes in different ways and it’s tough to say any one player is a ‘liability’, the Leafs still don’t have a “superstar” defenseman.  Someone that is a true backbone for the team whenever they are on the ice, and that the coach can have absolute trust in in any situation. 

Looking at recent cup winners, it’s almost an anomaly for a team to win the cup without a bonafide number one defenseman.  The Panthers had Gustav Forsling, the Golden Knights had Alex Pietrangelo.  Cale Makar won the Conn Smythe with the Avalanche in 2022, while Victor Hedman was the backbone for the Lightning when they won back-to-back cups in 2020 and 2021.  

If I had to pick one player on the Leafs as their #1 defenseman, it would be Morgan Rielly.  The Leafs have built their defensive core around Rielly since he was drafted.  Although he is a great defenseman, Toronto’s lack of playoff success in his tenure could indicate that they need more on the backend to make a deep run.

What they can do

If Toronto really wants to make a push for someone to lead their blue line, they don’t have many real high profile options in free agency.  However, one potential trade target that has been linked to Toronto is New Jersey Devils defenseman Dougie Hamilton.  Elliotte Friedman said on the "32 Thoughts" podcast that Hamilton available in the trade market, stating that he is "the biggest question for the Devils." The veteran blue liner has three years left on his deal, which just switched from a no-move clause to a modified no-trade clause which puts him on the trade market.  

Hamilton makes 9 million per season against the cap, while the Leafs have just over $4.9 million in space, so they would have to move a roster player to get a deal done.  Should Toronto look to move a defenseman for Hamilton, Rielly, Tanev, and McCabe are the only defenseman who getting rid of them would clear enough space for Hamilton.  But Rielly and Tanev have no-move clauses, and McCabe has a no-trade clause which means they would have to approve a move to New Jersey.

Do they need to make a splash?

Earlier, I mentioned recent Stanley Cup winners and their superstar defenseman.  While it seems that you need a superstar to win the cup, it isn’t entirely unheard of for teams to win without one.  Notably, the 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins won the Stanley Cup with a 35-year-old Ron Hainsey as arguably their best defenseman.  However, it’s tough to compare teams from different decades.  Just because one team did it, that doesn’t guarantee that another can do it ten years later.

While Toronto can maintain their group on defense that brought them the furthest they have been in the playoffs in multiple decades,  getting to the second round isn’t the standard.  Winning the Stanley Cup is.  I don’t have a crystal ball, and I can’t guarantee that they will or won’t win the cup should they keep the blue line the way it is.  But if they have an opportunity to improve the blue line and their chances to win the cup while their window is open, it may very well be worth it to jump at the chance while it’s there.