This projected number could still go higher, and Bengals fans hope that's the case.
Three years ago, the Cincinnati Bengals selected defensive back Dax Hill out of Michigan with the 31st overall pick. The team immediately transitioned him to safety from his primary slot corner role with the Wolverines. Looking ahead, projections now have Hill receiving the lowest fifth-year option number after the 2025 season.
Salary-cap expert Michael Ginnitti predicted on Spotract that Hill will have the lowest fifth-year option number of all players drafted in 2022's first round. However, Over the Cap projected the number to be higher.
Why Dax Hill has such a low projected number
Of the four tiers of fifth-year options, Hill is in the “tier 4” category, which Ginnitti points out will give the young defensive back “the 5-year average of the 3rd-25th highest paid players at their position.”
The most significant factor working against Hill is that he was drafted as a safety. Safeties have the lowest value at $9,267,000. Hill has not hit any markers that would push him into the upper tiers. His lack of playing time and Pro Bowls cap his fifth-year option number.
Hill and Baltimore's Kyle Hamilton were the only two safeties selected in the first round of the 2022 draft. Hamilton has already blown past the lower tiers and will make the maximum for a safety under the fifth-year option ($18,600,000) if Baltimore decides to go that route.
How Hill can change his 5th-year option number
Fortunately, there are ways Hill can make more money than Ginnitti predicts, if it has not happened already.
First, Hill could complete the switch to full-time cornerback that began in the 2024 season. He started on the outside for the Bengals until his season-ending injury in Week 5. With Mike Hilton gone, Hill could return to the position that made him a first-round selection: slot corner.
The team has already made that position change on its official roster. That change prompted Over The Cap to change its projection for Hill from $9 million to $12.68 million. Even if that is Hill’s fifth-year option salary, he would remain tied for the lowest number with Dallas’ Kaiir Elam.
Second, Hill could perform well above expectations and make the Pro Bowl. In that scenario, if the Bengals were to apply a fifth-year option, Hill would pocket $15.027 million as a safety. As a corner, a Pro Bowl selection would net the former Wolverine $17.595 million for one extra season.
Fans should hope that Over The Cap’s and Ginnitti’s predictions do not come to fruition. The player, the organization, and the fans hope for — and desperately need — Hill to play to a level commensurate with the highest-level fifth-year option possible. That way, he'd look like a bargain reminiscent of when the team placed the option on Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase with no discussion.
The NFL draft’s potential role in Hill’s 5th-year option
Hill’s college experience in the slot and early-2024 success on the outside should give the organization all the evidence it needs to keep him at corner. Nevertheless, you never know how things will play out with a new defensive coordinator in town. Especially now that the NFL Draft is upon us.
The Bengals will draft at least one defensive secondary player at the end of April. If they select safety Xavier Watts, count on Hill lining up outside or in the slot. However, if Cincinnati selects a more versatile safety like Nick Emmanwori or Malaki Starks, that would leave the door open for Hill to continue his stellar start to the 2024 season as an outside corner.
If Will Johnson falls to the Bengals at No. 17 or they love Notre Dame’s Benjamin Morrison, that could put Hill back at safety or slot corner in 2025.
Hopefully, no matter who they draft, Hill will find himself at his best position: corner. The Bengals need all the help they can get on defense.
A considerable part of that will depend on the younger players, in general, and former first-round pick Hill, in particular, raising their stock. Hill was on his way to accomplishing that before he suffered a season-ending injury.
His health and improved play will now be a massive boost to a maligned defense and possibly earn a bigger-than-expected fifth-year option amount next offseason.
